Biden. Can. Win.
Before we get started: Sarah and I taped a banger of a Secret Podcast this morning and I pushed it out early. You can catch it here. Trigger warning: Johnny from Jersey is insufferable.
1. Brandon
Were you surprised? You shouldn’t have been.
Last year Joe Biden gave a banger of a State of the Union.
After October 7, he gave two powerful addresses. (Those are three separate links.)
On January 5, 2024, he delivered an excellent speech about American democracy on the anniversary of the January 6 attempted coup.
He. Is. Good. At. This.
One of my mantras is that you shouldn’t confuse results with analysis.1 The result we have right now is the polling which shows Biden at best tied and at worst losing to Trump. But if you couldn’t see any polls—if you just came down from Mars and looked at the candidates, the economy, and the objective reality—then you’d think that Biden was at least a 50-50 shot to win reelection.
But I’m not here to sell t-shirts. I’m here to point out one of the fundamental asymmetries that was on display last night and how it’s going to drive this campaign.