
Biden Cracks Open the Door
Plus: More from the focus groups and an update on Gaza.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi reportedly urged other congressional Democrats to share their concerns about President Joe Bidenās ability to win in November privately with the White House or Biden campaign, or at least to wait until after the end of the NATO summit to make public statements. Well, the NATO summit concluded yesterday, and already two more House Democrats, Jim Himes and Eric Sorensen, have called for Biden to step aside, bringing the total to seventeen.
Meanwhile, the New York Times and MSNBC have both reported that the Biden campaign has started testing Vice President Kamala Harrisās polling against Donald Trump. Happy Friday.
Deep Down, Biden Knows
Watching President Bidenās press conference last night, I thought: Joe Biden knows. He knows at some level that he shouldnāt be running again.
That level is still subterranean. Heās still in denial. He canāt really even acknowledge to himself yet that he should step aside, let alone say it, or act on it.
But he knows. He knows that heās very unlikely to win, and he knows, I think, that heās not up to governing for four more years.
He does believe, as he argued last night, that heās governed well, and that he can still govern well enough for the next six months. Heās right about that.
But Biden never really argued last night that he can govern for the next four years. Nor could an honest observer watch the press conference and conclude that he was up to the task.
And Biden never really tried to lay out much of a second term agenda. Rather, he said, he was committed to finishing the job: āAnyway, Iām going to be going around making the case of the things that I think we have to finish and how we canāt afford to lose what weāve done.ā
But of course there are others who can protect what Biden has accomplished, and finishāor better, continueāthe job heās started. Thatās what successors do. Life is full of occasions when successors take up the jobs their predecessors began. So is politics. George Washingtonās achievement was carried forward by his successors. So was Franklin Rooseveltās. So was John Kennedyās. So was Ronald Reaganās.
Of course, to finish a job, you need to have that job. In this case, you need to win in November. To build on what Biden has begun, a Democrat will need to defeat Donald Trump.
Joe Biden more or less acknowledged last night that doing so will be a challenge for him.
Iām determined on running. But I think itās important that I realāI allay fears. Iāve seenālet them see me out there, let me see them out, you knowāfor the longest time, it was, you know, āBidenās not prepared to sit with us unscripted; Biden is not prepared toāāand anyway.
Iām not sure that statement really allayed fears. But whatās notable is that Biden acknowledged that itās important for him to do so. And itās hard to claim that heās done so in the two weeks since the debate.
But what about the fact Biden did mention last nightāthat his campaign had an infrastructure that would be āawful hard to replace in the near termā? āItās awful hard to start from scratch.ā
Unconvincing. Bidenās successor wouldnāt be starting from scratch. Most of the Biden campaign apparatus isnāt Biden-specific. Itās available to any Democratic successor who would inherit it.
Biden also conceded last night that a successor candidate could beat Trump. āI believe Iām the best qualified to govern and I think Iām the best qualified to win, but there are other people who could beat Trump, too.ā
In the wake of reports that Bidenās own campaign was doing polls testing Kamala Harris against Trump, Biden was asked, what if she did better than Biden (as she has in a couple of public polls)? Not enough, Biden said. He claimed heād only step aside if āthey came back and said thereās no way you can win.ā
But obviously itās never the case that thereās āno wayā one can win. But it could well be the case that thereās little chance you could win. And polling would show that, and could well show a successor would have a better chance.
The fact that Biden was even talking about having his mind changed by polling data is itself striking. Last week heād said the only thing that could get him out of the race was if the Lord Almighty told him to do so. But nowāby Bidenās own accountāweāre in a world of polling rather than praying, of human judgment rather than divine revelation.
So the door has been cracked open.
Meanwhile, CNN reported yesterday that
Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Joe Biden and the future of his 2024 campaign. Both the former president and ex-speaker expressed concerns about how much harder they think itās become for the president to beat Donald Trump. Neither is quite sure what to do.
Neither Obama nor Pelosi contested the report. Indeed, Pelosiās office confirmed theyād spoken.
So Obamaās talking to Pelosi. The campaign is doing polls of other candidates. Biden is acknowledging he has to āallay fears.ā
We donāt need divine intervention for Joe Biden to step aside. The doorās been cracked open. What we do need is sustained efforts, both private and public, to persuade and, yes, to pressure Joe Biden to open the door wideāand to walk through it.
āWilliam Kristol
In the comments yesterday, there was a really interesting discussion about how to make our news media better, more civic-minded, less in thrall to the attention economy. Itās no coincidence that this conversation was among Bulwark+ members (who can comment on Morning Shots). At The Bulwark, weāre building the kind of media we think the country needs. Weāre not on Team Red or Team Blueāand weāre not in it to become billionaires. Weāre in it for democracy. Weād love to have you aboard.
Biden Didnāt Quiet Democratsā Concerns
Despite Joe Bidenās early stumblesācalling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky āPresident Putinā and Vice President Kamala Harris āVice President TrumpāāThursdayās press conference was not a campaign-ending catastrophe, much like the interview the president gave last week to George Stephanopoulos. Biden proved he still had good information rattling around his head somewhere, but the delivery was severely off-putting.
In other words, it wasnāt enough to quiet the concerns about his capability of beating Trump and being president for another four years.
I had a repeat participant in one of my focus groups this weekāBryan from Pennsylvania. He was in our group of Trump-to-Biden voters the day after the State of the Union address, and remarked on how Bidenās speech had featured āflowing improv.ā Other participants in that March focus group shared Bryanās relief about Bidenās competence.
Bryan was representative of the kind of voter who, while not a progressive, was looking for a safe place to park a vote against Trump. State-of-the-Union Biden gave it to him.
But after talking to Bryan again this week, it was clear that Bidenās debate performance had vitiated his confidence in the president. He recalled asking himself within the first two minutes of the debate, āOh my God, what is this?ā He later concluded, āThis guy canāt make it to November.ā
But it wasnāt just the debate that gave him pause. He had watched the George Stephanopoulos interview as well, and called it ātoo little, too late.ā
āWe know youāre not all there,ā he said. āI saw behind the veil.ā
Democrats can ask voters to vote for a flawed, old man over an insurrectionist. But they canāt with a straight face expect voters to feel good about it.
āWe all can see that heās not cognitively there, especially for four more years,ā another voter said. āMy God, I donāt know if he can do four more months.ā
āSarah Longwell
The comments have been lively this week. Thatās good! Keep sharing your ideas. The whole point of The Bulwark is to talk openly, honestly, and in good faith with each other about our country and its problems. Disagreement is good. Letās all be the kind of citizens we think everyone should be.
Can Gaza Catch a Break?
After nine months, there seems to be a small opening to secure a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. Although the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are on the verge a battlefield victory in Rafah, the mood in Israel has soured on the war. According to a recent poll, 56 percent of Israelis support a hostage deal, indicating Israelis' lack of faith in the prospects of victory.
Pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has been mounting since Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot left the war cabinet in early June. Meanwhile, rumblings inside Netanyahuās Likud Party have intensified. Defense Minister Yoav Gallantās recent trip to D.C. likely exacerbated his simmering feud with Netanyahu, as did Gallantās call for a state inquiryinto the October 7th attack, which he knows would likely hurt Netanyahu politically, since Bibi has yet to take personal accountability for not preventing the pogrom.
The three-phased deal would reportedly begin with a six-week ceasefire, during which Hamas would release the remaining female hostages and all wounded hostages. Israel, in turn, would partially withdraw its forces from Gaza and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, who would almost certainly swell Hamasās ranks in the West Bank.
In the second phase of the deal, a new interim government will take the helm. Hamas is reportedly open to pulling back its forces to make way for a 2500-strong, U.S.-trained security force under the Palestinian Authority. In the third phase of the deal, a multi-year reconstruction plan will pump billions into the war-ravaged territory.
The deal's first phase is viable, which by itself is a small victory for the Biden administration. Israel could use a break to rearm, refit, and refocus on Hezbollah. Hamas could also use a time to reorganize their fractured fighting force, which is a shadow of its former self.
Phase II of the deal faces more serious obstacles. The proposed Gaza security force is far too small, even with backing from the Gulf Arab states. It would face intense pressure from Hamas, which fields experienced operatives who have survived nine months of grueling combat with the regionās best military.
Itās also hard to fathom Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar voluntarily relinquishing control of Gaza under any circumstances. It would mean giving up the holy war to which he has committed his life, and signing a permanent ceasefire with the Jews that did not explicitly end the war with Hamas in power would wreck the groupās stature in the jihadist world would.
On the other side, Netanyahuās ruling coalition would likely disintegrate if he were to empower the PA by signing such a deal. Netanyahu signaled his reservation by publishing a list of cease-fire principles.
All of those problems are difficult, and the window for a deal appears short with the U.S. presidential election in full swing.
The most likely outcome is that thereās no long-term solution to the war, but a six-week ceasefire gives everyone a chance to catch their breathāespecially the innocent Gazans trapped in a horrifying war.
āWill Selber
Catching Up . . .
Rescued Hostage Describes Months of Uncertainty and Terror in Gaza: New York Times
Economists Say Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump Than Biden: Wall Street Journal
China views Americaās presidential nightmare with mirthāand disquiet: Economist
Why AOC and other āSquadā members are now defending Joe Biden: Financial Times
Man plotted electrical substation attack to advance white supremacist views, prosecutors say: Politico
Quick Hits
In MAGAville, Marc Caputo reports that for the first time ever, Trump isāand we cannot believe we are using this phrase to describe himāsitting pretty:
The past nine years have yielded countless reports of Trump pivoting or becoming more disciplined and politically astute. Most of them havenāt aged well.
But whatās different now, his advisers insist, is that he can actuallyāand accuratelyāargue heās winning. He never led Biden in 2020 polls. In 2016, Clinton was ahead of Trump at this point in the campaign.
Trump also has the added motivation of having lost the presidency, even if he wonāt admit it was legitimate.
āHeās had four years to think about this moment, and heās not gonna screw it up,ā said one adviser.
But itās not just a thirst for redemption driving Trump. In candid moments, he has acknowledged to others that he knows he has to win the presidency because itās the only way to shut down the Department of Justiceās criminal cases against him in Washington and in South Florida. That is, Trump believes if he doesnāt win the White House, he could wind up in the Big House. And he has adjusted accordingly.
Peter Meilaender reviews Robert Kaganās latest book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America ApartāAgain, and along the way has some deep insights into both American liberalism and American conservatism:
Kaganās motivation for describing this American antiliberal traditionānote, incidentally, the choice of label, not āilliberalā (i.e., merely not liberal), as one might have expected, but āantiliberal,ā motivated by hostility toward liberalismāis clear enough. A vocal critic of Donald Trump and the Republican party he has remade in his image, Kagan is horrified at the prospect of a possible second Trump presidency. This is clear from his very first page, where he writes, āThe presidential election of 2024 . . . is a referendum on whether the liberal democracy born out of the Revolution should continue.ā Trump is the leader of those ātens of millions of Americans [who] have risen in rebellion against that system.ā The book ends where it began, repeating on the final page that ā2024 is the year when the antiliberals hope to overthrow the system.ā
I share Kaganās alarm at the thought that Trump might return to the White House, and I approve his desire to highlight the authoritarian impulses of Trumpism. These worthy motives and his zeal for the cause, however, lead Kagan astray. Rebellion rests upon an inappropriately narrow conception of liberalism; it does so in order to highlight a questionable ātraditionā of antiliberalism; and as a result it distorts modern American conservatism.
I will never understand the mindset of somebody who says āthis guy who has done the job for four years, but has lost a step scares me more than the guy who is a convicted felon, failed miserably at the job before, tried to overthrow the government, is indicted for being a national security threat , oopenly flirts with dictators, lies incessantly, is morally and ethically bankrupt, twice impeached, doesnāt value democracy, and has a 900 page plan to break the government. Oh, then also gut Social Security and Medicareā
While England and France rallied to protect democracy as their number one priority. America, who spent decades, believing their own hype about being the world leader in democracy is on the precipice of giving it away.
White America is not going to elect Kamala Harris over Trump. Dems need to quit being wishy-washy and get behind Biden as the candidate. Biden's weakest attribute is far better than Trump's strongest any day of the week. It's getting to be too silly, anymore.