"One other thing: We’ve seen lots of comments recently to the effect that Morning Shots has been a real doom parade recently—which, yeah, it sure has! We aren’t losing hope or our taste for the fight, but it’s hard to argue that things don’t look grim right now. If you’ve got thoughts on how we should be approaching this moment with a mi…
"One other thing: We’ve seen lots of comments recently to the effect that Morning Shots has been a real doom parade recently—which, yeah, it sure has! We aren’t losing hope or our taste for the fight, but it’s hard to argue that things don’t look grim right now. If you’ve got thoughts on how we should be approaching this moment with a minimum of bumming you out over your coffee, we’d love to hear them."
I'll take a moment to defend our hosts here on this count. From where I sit, and with all due respect to my fellow posters, whose wise words I take in and learn from each day, it's not their job to massage our feelings and tell us what we want to hear, how we want to hear it. We may not see eye-to-eye with their perspective sometimes, but they are informed observers, not hacks, and draw reasoned conclusions based on the available evidence. The discussions here are civil and courteous because that is the tone that they have set, and we all should take a little time in this uncivil era to appreciate that and extend to them the same courtesy that they have gifted to us. Likewise in terms of thinking of canceling subscriptions here over the tone and content -- is it their fault that the news has been consistently bad lately? Did they create the Go Joe or Stay Joe controversy? Does anything they say have any power of influence over the Democratic decision-makers or do they merely analyze and comment as do the rest of us? Would canceling a subscription change any of that, or would it equate to one less informed, participating soldier in the battle that we need to fight?
Let's not lose our heads over things here over which we have little to no control, and find strength in both our numbers and our ability to communicate our ideas. Discord and divisiveness are the devil's workshop in this case. Or MAGA's glee if we fracture and fail in our purpose. Or both. Let's not go there, please and thank you.
Maybe they did not create the go Joe or stay Joe controversy, but they certainly fanned the flames, refusing to even address any arguments for keeping Biden. Meanwhile they had only one weak argument for Go Joe-He can't complete his second term so let's preemptively replace him. The premise is questionable, making the conclusion nothing but post hoc rationalization of the initial panicky overreaction..
Yet increasingly congressional Democrats, important ones, appear to be leaning in that direction. Are they "fanning the flames" as well, or merely reading the room and the tea leaves, and drawing the same conclusions? I doubt they are consulting with The Bulwark to guide their decisions, which likely are based on a lot more inside information than we have at our disposal. So I can't get too worked up about what the columnists here write. My outrage is reserved for those insiders who likely saw this coming and did nothing to stop it, or at least plan for it, when there was time to do so. So many of us on the outside saw the signs and were holding our breath that there would be no implosion. Yet here we are. I feel played by the DNC. The Bulwark certainly has nothing to do with that.
Did you read the links? Or listen to the psychologists evaluating Biden's cognitive function?
A bunch of congressional dems were part of the initial hysteria and the post hoc rationalization of that hysteria. The calm Dems may have now perceived that the hysteria has irreparably damaged Biden. Biden himself is the same as he ever was. Calm acceptance of the perfectly reasonable explanation would have been the far better approach. https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/we-now-know-what-really-happened From the moment the debate ended, I advised remaining calm and waiting for more information because decisions made in panic seldom work out.
I do get that. But it's not the way most voters see it, going on instinct as they do and not putting the time and effort into the matter that we do. True, media coverage of the spectacle, at the expense of vital facts, does not help, and DJT's own cognitive decline goes woefully underanalyzed. Therein lies the main problem -- voters driven by emotion rather than research. Going back to at least Bill Clinton and Dick Morris, polls seem to be the main driver of anything political anymore. That also appears to be why Schiff, Jeffries, maybe Pelosi and Schumer, and others at a high level are abandoning ship either subtly or overtly. They have much more information than we do and are much closer to the situation than we are. What do they know that we do not?
Just because they didn't create it, doesn't mean they are not piling on. They could write articles about the great job Biden has done and the vast experience he has compared to anyone else. But then they wouldn't be lemmings in the dissing Biden parade and helping Trump. Guess what Trump is old and fat and stupid besides being a rapist, a felon and a traitor. But hey at least he's not Biden.
But we do have control and so many of these posts just signal—and encourage—capitulation. For God’s sake we have agency. We can get out there and talk to people about what lies ahead if the “law and order party”—which just means we won’t hesitate to crack the skulls of our enemies—led by a convicted criminal, takes power.
We get it you don’t like Biden and want him gone! God knows all you republicans and former republicans know how to spin the positive—you stayed silent about the fools and miscreants in your (former) party for years. Newt? Hastert? Rush? There are just too many to name. Come on. Regardless of who the Dem nominee is you are either on board to stop the Christian nationalist authoritarians from taking over or you aren’t. It’s as simple as that.
Thank you! That really is point. Dissing Biden, who is the only Democrat with both experience and money, or wishing on a star that some unicorn is going show up and beat Trump.
The Republicans are smarter and realize Trump is horrible person but they have a payed off media that keeps telling us he is really a prince and we will buy it. On other words, they don't shit where they eat.
I'm sure the Republicans are very grateful for your help.
I don't like Joe Biden? Where on Earth do you get that from? I've never said such a thing. Because it isn't true. Simple as that. Interpretation otherwise is mistaken. And as I've said multiple times in these pages, even today (see below), I have no position on Joe staying or going. I am leaving that to people better informed than I am and hoping that they get it right.
I've made clear over time that I will vote Democratic in this election, no matter who is atop the ticket, because the GOP as now constituted is a non-starter. I certainly don't expect that everyone here memorizes my many verbose posts. But regular readers surely know that much by now.
If 2016 is any guide it was only one half of one percent that decided the election. But whatever the percentage of marginal voters, all this public panic is only driving them away and possibly to Trump. It may already be too late and the self -fulfilling prophecy is all but fulfilled. For that reason Biden may have to step down and let Harris and her VP pick try to attract them (back) even though Biden is cognitively fine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQo23H4pP8o
I should have been clearer. Not you specifically. Many of the Bulwark folk—you want names? Kristol for one; JVL likes Joe but has gone very dark—and so many of the commenters here. I do like Joe and think many of the takes are overblown. Joe is handling the presidency right now and if something happens in six months or a year or never, we have a solid veep (who people say they are behind) and she can step up. We have to stop the doomsday navel gazing and get our eyes back on the prize—and talk about the damn stakes every day through 11/5.
Take a look at the Republicans who back Trump. Trump could piss on the Bible to a million fawning voters and the NYT, Fox News would spin it. The Republican voters wouldn't say a word against him. I wish the anti Trump group would show a fraction of that loyalty.
Huge difference between Joe as current and recent president (few here would not like all that he has been able to achieve in the last 3.5 years) vs. Joe as the sensible side's nominee for president from Jan 2025 onward for 4 years. Given age, recent performance (uneven at best, very concerning on 6/27), swing-state polling, etc, we have to take a pragmatic approach precisely because we are not a cult or personality like the other side is.
Stop the fantasy football BS. This isn’t the West Wing. Joe is still pretty damn effective for an old guy even if you think he is “senile.” Any Dem who steps in—and tell me who is gonna do it? Adam Schiff?—will start out with a party in shambles, no campaign infrastructure, little voter recognition (who did they pick, hun? Never heard of em), no war chest, and NO TIME. And just wait until the media get through with their “vetting.” And the potential for red state lawsuits and ballot access.
Yep, that a a sure path to victory because anybody is better than Biden, right?
I was re-reading some history of the Norway Debate in 1940, and there's a relevant quote from Lloyd George below. There's no benefit from not facing facts, but also no help panicking provided that Democrats recognize facts and then take action to improve the situation.
We do need to face the fact that Biden is polling well behind 2020 and his campaign is floundering. But the poll tracker from 2016 also showed Hillary consistently ahead of Trump (but not far ahead) until the end when her lead collapsed, so it's still possible to correct the gap if something changes. I do think Biden probably should drop out, but either way facing facts without panic is the first step to a fix.
From Hansard from Lloyd George:
"In such experience as I have had of war direction I have never tried to minimise the extent of a disaster. I try to get the facts, because unless you really face the facts you cannot overcome the difficulties and restore the position. There is no case, in my judgment, for panic. I say that deliberately, after a good deal of reflection, but there is a grave case for pulling ourselves together. We cannot do that unless we tell the country the facts. They must realise the magnitude of our jeopardy."
I count myself as someone who wasn't initially ready to hear the talk about replacing Biden. If not for the continual prodding by Bulwark writers to stop looking away from what we saw happening in front of our eyes, I might still be there.
I'm not the voter we need to worry about. I'll vote for whomever has a (D) after their name. And whatever Joe decides, I'm grateful he's been steering the ship of state the past 4 years.
A good move in your thinking, Barbara. I too will vote D regardless and I'm grateful for Biden saving us from Trump. But I'm also convinced he cannot beat Trump and another Dem - my bet is on Kamala - can. If you've come to that conclusion as well, you could take another step and write to your Congresspeople, if they are Dems, and let them know. That will influence Biden's decision.
If Biden cannot beat Trump it will be because a self fulfilling prophecy was created by the post hoc rationalization of the initial emotional overreaction to the debate.
Spot on D. Everyone has to be smart enough to understand the maga convention was going to grab the spotlight. When you add in trump getting shot in the head, it was all going to come up roses (for the week).
Let them "enjoy" their moment and bask in their arrogance. The real battles haven't even come close to being kicked off. The problem, always, for those of us willing to be realistic to see what is happening, is we end up facing uncomfortable truths. Pretending everything is great, when all the signs tell us different, is folly.
Here's what The Bulwark is to me...the perfect gathering space for all of us who hate trump. That includes: Democrats, conservative republicans and independents. It truly is the 'big tent" picture that Scott Jennings tried to pass off the maga-fest as.
The only way we beat trump is with everyone on board, not just Joe's ride or die folks. I still trust Joe to do the right thing at the right time. I think he is that honorable a man.
Like this: "to see what is happening . . . we end up facing uncomfortable truths. Pretending everything is great, when all the signs tell us different, is folly." We need to focus on the signs and discuss what they tell us. Imputing nefarious motives, like "they're really Republicans" is also folly.
I won't deny that "The Bulwark ...is the perfect gathering space for all of us who hate trump." The problem from my perspective is that it is a rather small space when balanced against the Kool Aid Gang (those who have drunk it). Our job is to get our thoughts outside of our bubble, communicate them to non-Bulwarkians in whatever way and by whatever means we have.
I agree. As always your comments are supportive and spot on. The Bulwark is an every day brief of how bad bad can be. We don’t have to like it (and yes some mornings I don’t have it in me to face it) but this is our reality. We certainly can’t blame the messenger for this disaster.
"One other thing: We’ve seen lots of comments recently to the effect that Morning Shots has been a real doom parade recently—which, yeah, it sure has! We aren’t losing hope or our taste for the fight, but it’s hard to argue that things don’t look grim right now. If you’ve got thoughts on how we should be approaching this moment with a minimum of bumming you out over your coffee, we’d love to hear them."
I'll take a moment to defend our hosts here on this count. From where I sit, and with all due respect to my fellow posters, whose wise words I take in and learn from each day, it's not their job to massage our feelings and tell us what we want to hear, how we want to hear it. We may not see eye-to-eye with their perspective sometimes, but they are informed observers, not hacks, and draw reasoned conclusions based on the available evidence. The discussions here are civil and courteous because that is the tone that they have set, and we all should take a little time in this uncivil era to appreciate that and extend to them the same courtesy that they have gifted to us. Likewise in terms of thinking of canceling subscriptions here over the tone and content -- is it their fault that the news has been consistently bad lately? Did they create the Go Joe or Stay Joe controversy? Does anything they say have any power of influence over the Democratic decision-makers or do they merely analyze and comment as do the rest of us? Would canceling a subscription change any of that, or would it equate to one less informed, participating soldier in the battle that we need to fight?
Let's not lose our heads over things here over which we have little to no control, and find strength in both our numbers and our ability to communicate our ideas. Discord and divisiveness are the devil's workshop in this case. Or MAGA's glee if we fracture and fail in our purpose. Or both. Let's not go there, please and thank you.
Maybe they did not create the go Joe or stay Joe controversy, but they certainly fanned the flames, refusing to even address any arguments for keeping Biden. Meanwhile they had only one weak argument for Go Joe-He can't complete his second term so let's preemptively replace him. The premise is questionable, making the conclusion nothing but post hoc rationalization of the initial panicky overreaction..
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Health-Summary-2.28.pdf
https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/we-now-know-what-really-happened
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQo23H4pP8o
Yet increasingly congressional Democrats, important ones, appear to be leaning in that direction. Are they "fanning the flames" as well, or merely reading the room and the tea leaves, and drawing the same conclusions? I doubt they are consulting with The Bulwark to guide their decisions, which likely are based on a lot more inside information than we have at our disposal. So I can't get too worked up about what the columnists here write. My outrage is reserved for those insiders who likely saw this coming and did nothing to stop it, or at least plan for it, when there was time to do so. So many of us on the outside saw the signs and were holding our breath that there would be no implosion. Yet here we are. I feel played by the DNC. The Bulwark certainly has nothing to do with that.
Did you read the links? Or listen to the psychologists evaluating Biden's cognitive function?
A bunch of congressional dems were part of the initial hysteria and the post hoc rationalization of that hysteria. The calm Dems may have now perceived that the hysteria has irreparably damaged Biden. Biden himself is the same as he ever was. Calm acceptance of the perfectly reasonable explanation would have been the far better approach. https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/we-now-know-what-really-happened From the moment the debate ended, I advised remaining calm and waiting for more information because decisions made in panic seldom work out.
I do get that. But it's not the way most voters see it, going on instinct as they do and not putting the time and effort into the matter that we do. True, media coverage of the spectacle, at the expense of vital facts, does not help, and DJT's own cognitive decline goes woefully underanalyzed. Therein lies the main problem -- voters driven by emotion rather than research. Going back to at least Bill Clinton and Dick Morris, polls seem to be the main driver of anything political anymore. That also appears to be why Schiff, Jeffries, maybe Pelosi and Schumer, and others at a high level are abandoning ship either subtly or overtly. They have much more information than we do and are much closer to the situation than we are. What do they know that we do not?
Just because they didn't create it, doesn't mean they are not piling on. They could write articles about the great job Biden has done and the vast experience he has compared to anyone else. But then they wouldn't be lemmings in the dissing Biden parade and helping Trump. Guess what Trump is old and fat and stupid besides being a rapist, a felon and a traitor. But hey at least he's not Biden.
Bravo!
But we do have control and so many of these posts just signal—and encourage—capitulation. For God’s sake we have agency. We can get out there and talk to people about what lies ahead if the “law and order party”—which just means we won’t hesitate to crack the skulls of our enemies—led by a convicted criminal, takes power.
We get it you don’t like Biden and want him gone! God knows all you republicans and former republicans know how to spin the positive—you stayed silent about the fools and miscreants in your (former) party for years. Newt? Hastert? Rush? There are just too many to name. Come on. Regardless of who the Dem nominee is you are either on board to stop the Christian nationalist authoritarians from taking over or you aren’t. It’s as simple as that.
Thank you! That really is point. Dissing Biden, who is the only Democrat with both experience and money, or wishing on a star that some unicorn is going show up and beat Trump.
The Republicans are smarter and realize Trump is horrible person but they have a payed off media that keeps telling us he is really a prince and we will buy it. On other words, they don't shit where they eat.
I'm sure the Republicans are very grateful for your help.
We can quote the Stones "you can't always get what you want, but if you try some times you can get what you need" let's stop the Biden bashing
,as it's killing us. That's why the poles are tanking. Why should voters want Biden when his own party does nothing but trash him. GET A CLUE?!
I don't like Joe Biden? Where on Earth do you get that from? I've never said such a thing. Because it isn't true. Simple as that. Interpretation otherwise is mistaken. And as I've said multiple times in these pages, even today (see below), I have no position on Joe staying or going. I am leaving that to people better informed than I am and hoping that they get it right.
I've made clear over time that I will vote Democratic in this election, no matter who is atop the ticket, because the GOP as now constituted is a non-starter. I certainly don't expect that everyone here memorizes my many verbose posts. But regular readers surely know that much by now.
Our "loyalty" or lack of it towards Joe Biden matters not one whit.
Nearly everyone in these forums, pro-Joe vs Joe must go, will vote for Joe if he leads the Democrat ticket.. and that also won't matter one whit.
Our shared problem is the supposedly undecided 5-8% of the American electorate who's votes will decide this election.
Joe Biden IS BEHIND, he doesn't have his former "mojo", and he isn't selling the goods to THOSE folks.
If 2016 is any guide it was only one half of one percent that decided the election. But whatever the percentage of marginal voters, all this public panic is only driving them away and possibly to Trump. It may already be too late and the self -fulfilling prophecy is all but fulfilled. For that reason Biden may have to step down and let Harris and her VP pick try to attract them (back) even though Biden is cognitively fine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQo23H4pP8o
I should have been clearer. Not you specifically. Many of the Bulwark folk—you want names? Kristol for one; JVL likes Joe but has gone very dark—and so many of the commenters here. I do like Joe and think many of the takes are overblown. Joe is handling the presidency right now and if something happens in six months or a year or never, we have a solid veep (who people say they are behind) and she can step up. We have to stop the doomsday navel gazing and get our eyes back on the prize—and talk about the damn stakes every day through 11/5.
I'm with you 100%.
Take a look at the Republicans who back Trump. Trump could piss on the Bible to a million fawning voters and the NYT, Fox News would spin it. The Republican voters wouldn't say a word against him. I wish the anti Trump group would show a fraction of that loyalty.
Huge difference between Joe as current and recent president (few here would not like all that he has been able to achieve in the last 3.5 years) vs. Joe as the sensible side's nominee for president from Jan 2025 onward for 4 years. Given age, recent performance (uneven at best, very concerning on 6/27), swing-state polling, etc, we have to take a pragmatic approach precisely because we are not a cult or personality like the other side is.
One God Damn bad night and everyone's panties are in a bunch!
Stop the fantasy football BS. This isn’t the West Wing. Joe is still pretty damn effective for an old guy even if you think he is “senile.” Any Dem who steps in—and tell me who is gonna do it? Adam Schiff?—will start out with a party in shambles, no campaign infrastructure, little voter recognition (who did they pick, hun? Never heard of em), no war chest, and NO TIME. And just wait until the media get through with their “vetting.” And the potential for red state lawsuits and ballot access.
Yep, that a a sure path to victory because anybody is better than Biden, right?
Good thing Joe is not senile. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQo23H4pP8o
Thank you! Well done.
Beautifully said.
Good comment.
I was re-reading some history of the Norway Debate in 1940, and there's a relevant quote from Lloyd George below. There's no benefit from not facing facts, but also no help panicking provided that Democrats recognize facts and then take action to improve the situation.
We do need to face the fact that Biden is polling well behind 2020 and his campaign is floundering. But the poll tracker from 2016 also showed Hillary consistently ahead of Trump (but not far ahead) until the end when her lead collapsed, so it's still possible to correct the gap if something changes. I do think Biden probably should drop out, but either way facing facts without panic is the first step to a fix.
From Hansard from Lloyd George:
"In such experience as I have had of war direction I have never tried to minimise the extent of a disaster. I try to get the facts, because unless you really face the facts you cannot overcome the difficulties and restore the position. There is no case, in my judgment, for panic. I say that deliberately, after a good deal of reflection, but there is a grave case for pulling ourselves together. We cannot do that unless we tell the country the facts. They must realise the magnitude of our jeopardy."
Thx. All extremely well said. We must realize our jeopardy - indeed.
Well said, sir.
I count myself as someone who wasn't initially ready to hear the talk about replacing Biden. If not for the continual prodding by Bulwark writers to stop looking away from what we saw happening in front of our eyes, I might still be there.
I'm not the voter we need to worry about. I'll vote for whomever has a (D) after their name. And whatever Joe decides, I'm grateful he's been steering the ship of state the past 4 years.
A good move in your thinking, Barbara. I too will vote D regardless and I'm grateful for Biden saving us from Trump. But I'm also convinced he cannot beat Trump and another Dem - my bet is on Kamala - can. If you've come to that conclusion as well, you could take another step and write to your Congresspeople, if they are Dems, and let them know. That will influence Biden's decision.
If Biden cannot beat Trump it will be because a self fulfilling prophecy was created by the post hoc rationalization of the initial emotional overreaction to the debate.
Thank you, Deutschmeister and others. I’m sticking with our Bulwark friends, too.
Thank you!! You speak my own thoughts much better than I could. It's hard not to jump salty even with our friends in these difficult days.
Spot on D. Everyone has to be smart enough to understand the maga convention was going to grab the spotlight. When you add in trump getting shot in the head, it was all going to come up roses (for the week).
Let them "enjoy" their moment and bask in their arrogance. The real battles haven't even come close to being kicked off. The problem, always, for those of us willing to be realistic to see what is happening, is we end up facing uncomfortable truths. Pretending everything is great, when all the signs tell us different, is folly.
Here's what The Bulwark is to me...the perfect gathering space for all of us who hate trump. That includes: Democrats, conservative republicans and independents. It truly is the 'big tent" picture that Scott Jennings tried to pass off the maga-fest as.
The only way we beat trump is with everyone on board, not just Joe's ride or die folks. I still trust Joe to do the right thing at the right time. I think he is that honorable a man.
Like this: "to see what is happening . . . we end up facing uncomfortable truths. Pretending everything is great, when all the signs tell us different, is folly." We need to focus on the signs and discuss what they tell us. Imputing nefarious motives, like "they're really Republicans" is also folly.
I won't deny that "The Bulwark ...is the perfect gathering space for all of us who hate trump." The problem from my perspective is that it is a rather small space when balanced against the Kool Aid Gang (those who have drunk it). Our job is to get our thoughts outside of our bubble, communicate them to non-Bulwarkians in whatever way and by whatever means we have.
There are many others, besides The Bulwark, in the pro-democracy/anti-Trump coalition who are getting their thoughts out.
Thanks for that, Sandy. Over here it is hard to tell (or hear).
I agree. As always your comments are supportive and spot on. The Bulwark is an every day brief of how bad bad can be. We don’t have to like it (and yes some mornings I don’t have it in me to face it) but this is our reality. We certainly can’t blame the messenger for this disaster.
This is heartening to read, thank you.
Please see my comment I just posted at about 12:30pm below.