I am so tired of the polling wisdom. Like how do you poll some one who is not actually running yet against trump? It is speculation at this point. The polls told us Hillary wins and she did not. May be trailing is not that bad after all to get the turn out you need. Yes, Biden is old and it shows. And people voted him the nominee anyway.…
I am so tired of the polling wisdom. Like how do you poll some one who is not actually running yet against trump? It is speculation at this point. The polls told us Hillary wins and she did not. May be trailing is not that bad after all to get the turn out you need. Yes, Biden is old and it shows. And people voted him the nominee anyway. After the debate every one screamed he has to show he still has it together. He did. And it is still not enough. Succesfull governing is still not enough. In an incumbent election as far as I understand the American system people vote for presidential record. And most of the time the incumbent wins. Thus historically and statistically Biden could win even when you need to carry him over the finish line. Down talking will not make anything better. As soon as there is a new candidate, if they will be able to agree on one, it is like a new race, no incumbent advantage, no presidential record to run on. Lots of new vulnerability also. I find Lichtman’s predictors so much more compelling. At least they are validated by history. All talk about Biden stepping back is not.
I am so tired of the polling wisdom. Like how do you poll some one who is not actually running yet against trump? It is speculation at this point. The polls told us Hillary wins and she did not. May be trailing is not that bad after all to get the turn out you need. Yes, Biden is old and it shows. And people voted him the nominee anyway. After the debate every one screamed he has to show he still has it together. He did. And it is still not enough. Succesfull governing is still not enough. In an incumbent election as far as I understand the American system people vote for presidential record. And most of the time the incumbent wins. Thus historically and statistically Biden could win even when you need to carry him over the finish line. Down talking will not make anything better. As soon as there is a new candidate, if they will be able to agree on one, it is like a new race, no incumbent advantage, no presidential record to run on. Lots of new vulnerability also. I find Lichtman’s predictors so much more compelling. At least they are validated by history. All talk about Biden stepping back is not.