For 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the United States lived in a delusion that Russia and China could not touch us. And while Americans are not all that interested in the rest of the world, the rest of the world is interested in us. Plus, Biden and Bibi don't like each other. David Sanger joins Tim Miller.
One thing that struck me was David Sanger’s uncertainty on whether either Trump or Biden would defend Taiwan if China tried to conquer them.
I think the answer is obvious.
Biden has said, repeatedly, that he would. He will.
The reason you can trust his word on this is because every incentive in global affairs is pushing Democrats to become the party of defense of democracy against tyranny, even at the expense of their other priorities. A major reason why Biden has stood hard behind Ukraine and not, say, repeated the Obama rhetoric of “it’s time to start nation-building at home” is because discouraging China from physically pursuing national “redemption” in its near abroad is even more important. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan, with all the rewiring of the balance of power in Asia and global supply chains that implies, would be the strongest moment of “American decline” possible. It would bring great power conflict back to Asia after an 80-year absence. In a more petty, domestic sense, it would likely doom the Democratic Party for many years to come.
If you have principles you stand behind, as Biden does, you don’t make promises like the one he’s made unless you’re prepared to pull the trigger on them. He is.
Trump, on the other hand, has said, with no hint of disapproval, that China *will* try to conquer Taiwan, and has heavily implied that that is okay. Reporting has also indicated that Trump told his staff in private that he would let China conquer Taiwan without a fight, because he does not think it worth it to defend, either geopolitically or in terms of the material, financial cost to his wealthier supporters.
The GOP under Trump is becoming a party who increasingly sees their greatest enemy as fellow Americans, specifically liberals. They would rather deploy the military and the weight of the U.S.government against blue cities, blue states, and citizens they consider “disloyal” than anything Chinese or Russian—and again, this is clear from Trump’s rhetoric.
None of this is hard to fathom, or be certain of. The respective incentives of Trump and Biden are as clear as if written by lightning at this point.
At this point, one should take the candidates at their word on Taiwan—especially if that lines up with what kind of leader they clearly are.
Biden is a man of principle, Trump, one of brute short-term transaction. All follows from that.
Putin restarted the Cold War around 2007. But Western politicians bent over backwards to pretend it was not happening. To acknowledge the reality of the situation would have required politicians to reevaluate their policy priorities and spend more on national security. Politicians in a democracy always have an incentive to prioritize domestic spending in an attempt to buy votes, so they will always lie to themselves and their voters in order to downplay foreign threats. Eventually, people will die, and then they will have to stop pretending.
So glad I didn't get to see this whole thing on YouTube and ended up finishing it w/ just the audio, b/c none of the intro info was on the video. Tim! I was born and raised in NC and went to college in Raleigh. SO VERY COOL to hear about your bro's wedding! Nice to be in The Bulwark about that vs. say, "The Bathroom Bill" or the sickening guy running for gov. to replace the wonderful Roy Cooper. Also don't know if you heard that Madison Cawthorn last week rear-ended a FL trooper while speeding in a construction zone? Lots of cringe-worthy stuff associated w/ this state, so your story was extra special.
Fantastic episode. Extremely informative and impartial. I ordered his book. Also condolences to Jim and a congratulations to you and your family. I appreciate the staff life updates and allowing us into your bubbles a little. Can't wait to see you guys in Philly!
Great episode - thank you so much for doing this one. Also for taking over for Charlie Sykes on the daily podcast, which has to have added a lot to your load. (Also appreciate what you’re trying to do by interviewing people like Douthat but I just cat listen to the guy).
My deepest condolences to Jim. I lost my mother in February, so I know how hard it is to lose your Mom.
And like Tim I am thankful for the progress we have seen. As a gay man in an interracial marriage myself, I am know how far we've come. We are still not where we want to be, but thank God, we aren't where we were.
This may be the best and most significant podcast Tim or anyone else has done on the Bulwark. The post Cold War honeymoon has been over for a long time but we are just now seeing the consequences of complacency.
Tim, another great interview and show. Keep up the excellent work. Lastly, my sympathy to Jim and family. Losing a mother is something we all will experience in life.
I don't understand how the attack on Israel by Iran is one of those upticks, as Sanger puts it, in the shadow war between Israel and Iran. Didn't Israel tick it up with its attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus?
GREAT podcast today!! Love that Tim has the range to do a full-on foreign policy ep like this when we all need a break from the 24/7 Trump news cycle. I hope he makes this a focus on Wednesdays when the court case is adjourned and TNL is on deck for the political commentary!!
One thing that struck me was David Sanger’s uncertainty on whether either Trump or Biden would defend Taiwan if China tried to conquer them.
I think the answer is obvious.
Biden has said, repeatedly, that he would. He will.
The reason you can trust his word on this is because every incentive in global affairs is pushing Democrats to become the party of defense of democracy against tyranny, even at the expense of their other priorities. A major reason why Biden has stood hard behind Ukraine and not, say, repeated the Obama rhetoric of “it’s time to start nation-building at home” is because discouraging China from physically pursuing national “redemption” in its near abroad is even more important. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan, with all the rewiring of the balance of power in Asia and global supply chains that implies, would be the strongest moment of “American decline” possible. It would bring great power conflict back to Asia after an 80-year absence. In a more petty, domestic sense, it would likely doom the Democratic Party for many years to come.
If you have principles you stand behind, as Biden does, you don’t make promises like the one he’s made unless you’re prepared to pull the trigger on them. He is.
Trump, on the other hand, has said, with no hint of disapproval, that China *will* try to conquer Taiwan, and has heavily implied that that is okay. Reporting has also indicated that Trump told his staff in private that he would let China conquer Taiwan without a fight, because he does not think it worth it to defend, either geopolitically or in terms of the material, financial cost to his wealthier supporters.
The GOP under Trump is becoming a party who increasingly sees their greatest enemy as fellow Americans, specifically liberals. They would rather deploy the military and the weight of the U.S.government against blue cities, blue states, and citizens they consider “disloyal” than anything Chinese or Russian—and again, this is clear from Trump’s rhetoric.
None of this is hard to fathom, or be certain of. The respective incentives of Trump and Biden are as clear as if written by lightning at this point.
At this point, one should take the candidates at their word on Taiwan—especially if that lines up with what kind of leader they clearly are.
Biden is a man of principle, Trump, one of brute short-term transaction. All follows from that.
Putin restarted the Cold War around 2007. But Western politicians bent over backwards to pretend it was not happening. To acknowledge the reality of the situation would have required politicians to reevaluate their policy priorities and spend more on national security. Politicians in a democracy always have an incentive to prioritize domestic spending in an attempt to buy votes, so they will always lie to themselves and their voters in order to downplay foreign threats. Eventually, people will die, and then they will have to stop pretending.
So glad I didn't get to see this whole thing on YouTube and ended up finishing it w/ just the audio, b/c none of the intro info was on the video. Tim! I was born and raised in NC and went to college in Raleigh. SO VERY COOL to hear about your bro's wedding! Nice to be in The Bulwark about that vs. say, "The Bathroom Bill" or the sickening guy running for gov. to replace the wonderful Roy Cooper. Also don't know if you heard that Madison Cawthorn last week rear-ended a FL trooper while speeding in a construction zone? Lots of cringe-worthy stuff associated w/ this state, so your story was extra special.
More of this. Thanks for this one Tim. Excellent episode.
Fantastic episode. Extremely informative and impartial. I ordered his book. Also condolences to Jim and a congratulations to you and your family. I appreciate the staff life updates and allowing us into your bubbles a little. Can't wait to see you guys in Philly!
Great episode - thank you so much for doing this one. Also for taking over for Charlie Sykes on the daily podcast, which has to have added a lot to your load. (Also appreciate what you’re trying to do by interviewing people like Douthat but I just cat listen to the guy).
Great guest! Very much enjoyed this episode!
My deepest condolences to Jim. I lost my mother in February, so I know how hard it is to lose your Mom.
And like Tim I am thankful for the progress we have seen. As a gay man in an interracial marriage myself, I am know how far we've come. We are still not where we want to be, but thank God, we aren't where we were.
This may be the best and most significant podcast Tim or anyone else has done on the Bulwark. The post Cold War honeymoon has been over for a long time but we are just now seeing the consequences of complacency.
You and Sanger
talked about so much and I understood it all
and I don't know about so much. Thanks for making learning easy!
Tim, another great interview and show. Keep up the excellent work. Lastly, my sympathy to Jim and family. Losing a mother is something we all will experience in life.
Condolences to you and your family, Jim.
Hugs to the Swift fam.
I don't understand how the attack on Israel by Iran is one of those upticks, as Sanger puts it, in the shadow war between Israel and Iran. Didn't Israel tick it up with its attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus?
GREAT podcast today!! Love that Tim has the range to do a full-on foreign policy ep like this when we all need a break from the 24/7 Trump news cycle. I hope he makes this a focus on Wednesdays when the court case is adjourned and TNL is on deck for the political commentary!!
Look at Speaker Johnson putting Ukraine on the floor!