For 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the United States lived in a delusion that Russia and China could not touch us. And while Americans are not all that interested in the rest of the world, the rest of the world is interested in us. Plus, Biden and Bibi don't like each other. David Sanger joins Tim Miller.
The Bulwark Podcast
Audio
Video
Tim Miller and guests discuss the latest political news for the flagship podcast of the Never Trump movement and the reality-based community. Every weekday we provide insightful analysis, political hot-takes, an unabashed defense of liberal democracy and long-form interviews that cut through the "both-sides" BS. Plus a few laughs to help you wash down the crazy.
An ad-free edition is exclusively available for Bulwark+ members.
Tim Miller and guests discuss the latest political news for the flagship podcast of the Never Trump movement and the reality-based community. Every weekday we provide insightful analysis, political hot-takes, an unabashed defense of liberal democracy and long-form interviews that cut through the "both-sides" BS. Plus a few laughs to help you wash down the crazy.
An ad-free edition is exclusively available for Bulwark+ members.
Appears in episode
Tim Miller
Recent Episodes
One thing that struck me was David Sanger’s uncertainty on whether either Trump or Biden would defend Taiwan if China tried to conquer them.
I think the answer is obvious.
Biden has said, repeatedly, that he would. He will.
The reason you can trust his word on this is because every incentive in global affairs is pushing Democrats to become the party of defense of democracy against tyranny, even at the expense of their other priorities. A major reason why Biden has stood hard behind Ukraine and not, say, repeated the Obama rhetoric of “it’s time to start nation-building at home” is because discouraging China from physically pursuing national “redemption” in its near abroad is even more important. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan, with all the rewiring of the balance of power in Asia and global supply chains that implies, would be the strongest moment of “American decline” possible. It would bring great power conflict back to Asia after an 80-year absence. In a more petty, domestic sense, it would likely doom the Democratic Party for many years to come.
If you have principles you stand behind, as Biden does, you don’t make promises like the one he’s made unless you’re prepared to pull the trigger on them. He is.
Trump, on the other hand, has said, with no hint of disapproval, that China *will* try to conquer Taiwan, and has heavily implied that that is okay. Reporting has also indicated that Trump told his staff in private that he would let China conquer Taiwan without a fight, because he does not think it worth it to defend, either geopolitically or in terms of the material, financial cost to his wealthier supporters.
The GOP under Trump is becoming a party who increasingly sees their greatest enemy as fellow Americans, specifically liberals. They would rather deploy the military and the weight of the U.S.government against blue cities, blue states, and citizens they consider “disloyal” than anything Chinese or Russian—and again, this is clear from Trump’s rhetoric.
None of this is hard to fathom, or be certain of. The respective incentives of Trump and Biden are as clear as if written by lightning at this point.
At this point, one should take the candidates at their word on Taiwan—especially if that lines up with what kind of leader they clearly are.
Biden is a man of principle, Trump, one of brute short-term transaction. All follows from that.
Putin restarted the Cold War around 2007. But Western politicians bent over backwards to pretend it was not happening. To acknowledge the reality of the situation would have required politicians to reevaluate their policy priorities and spend more on national security. Politicians in a democracy always have an incentive to prioritize domestic spending in an attempt to buy votes, so they will always lie to themselves and their voters in order to downplay foreign threats. Eventually, people will die, and then they will have to stop pretending.
So glad I didn't get to see this whole thing on YouTube and ended up finishing it w/ just the audio, b/c none of the intro info was on the video. Tim! I was born and raised in NC and went to college in Raleigh. SO VERY COOL to hear about your bro's wedding! Nice to be in The Bulwark about that vs. say, "The Bathroom Bill" or the sickening guy running for gov. to replace the wonderful Roy Cooper. Also don't know if you heard that Madison Cawthorn last week rear-ended a FL trooper while speeding in a construction zone? Lots of cringe-worthy stuff associated w/ this state, so your story was extra special.
More of this. Thanks for this one Tim. Excellent episode.
Fantastic episode. Extremely informative and impartial. I ordered his book. Also condolences to Jim and a congratulations to you and your family. I appreciate the staff life updates and allowing us into your bubbles a little. Can't wait to see you guys in Philly!
Great episode - thank you so much for doing this one. Also for taking over for Charlie Sykes on the daily podcast, which has to have added a lot to your load. (Also appreciate what you’re trying to do by interviewing people like Douthat but I just cat listen to the guy).
Great guest! Very much enjoyed this episode!
My deepest condolences to Jim. I lost my mother in February, so I know how hard it is to lose your Mom.
And like Tim I am thankful for the progress we have seen. As a gay man in an interracial marriage myself, I am know how far we've come. We are still not where we want to be, but thank God, we aren't where we were.
This may be the best and most significant podcast Tim or anyone else has done on the Bulwark. The post Cold War honeymoon has been over for a long time but we are just now seeing the consequences of complacency.
Also Tim: congratulations on your brother’s marriage~~
You and Sanger
talked about so much and I understood it all
and I don't know about so much. Thanks for making learning easy!
Tim, another great interview and show. Keep up the excellent work. Lastly, my sympathy to Jim and family. Losing a mother is something we all will experience in life.
Condolences to you and your family, Jim.
Hugs to the Swift fam.
I don't understand how the attack on Israel by Iran is one of those upticks, as Sanger puts it, in the shadow war between Israel and Iran. Didn't Israel tick it up with its attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus?
GREAT podcast today!! Love that Tim has the range to do a full-on foreign policy ep like this when we all need a break from the 24/7 Trump news cycle. I hope he makes this a focus on Wednesdays when the court case is adjourned and TNL is on deck for the political commentary!!
Look at Speaker Johnson putting Ukraine on the floor!
I looked up Mary Louise Swift’s obituary after listening to this podcast. I’m a fellow Buckeye myself and I want to send my condolences to Jim and his family. You have a beautiful mother Jim and I am especially sorry you lost her at such a young age.
Another excellent interview
Tim, your thoughts to Jim and his family and then the joy of your brother’s wedding were such wonderful acknowledgments. Thank you for your tender words.
Very sorry for your loss, Jim. Sending my condolences to you and your family.
Sorry to hear about your loss Jim. My condolences.
Absolutely fabulous discussion.
Appreciate it, and thanks Tim for the kind tribute. She would have gotten a kick out of it.
My condolences to you and your family Jim.
1. There's no such thing as "deterrence by denial." "Denial" just informs the aggressor whether he needs to use more forceful or inventive methods next time. Meanwhile the main cost to him is in credibility, which is largely intangible.
Of course, it's not even that much if the aggressor is only cosplaying in the first place.
2. Only a clichéd liberal would believe that strong, "confident" countries are less inclined to be aggressive than weak, "insecure" ones. The strong, confident United States conquered half of the former Mexico and later went around the world subverting politically offensive gov'ts from Iran to Chile (and even connived at a coup in allied South Vietnam). The strong, confident Brits colonized half the world. So please, enough of the armchair psychology.
This was a great conversation with an awesome guest on ForPol. Tim, I'm really impressed with how you've stepped up your ForPol knowledge in the months since taking over the main pod--in addition to doing a great job as host in general--and this convo really brings that out. You're doing great my man.
Tim, congratulations to your brother and his husband! We love our Gay Marriage, and I know that you and Tyler do too, and it's great to welcome the latest two.
The inverse is that Russia feels compelled to, say, invade Ukraine because they're encircled, which makes them sad.
Jim, deepest condolences on your and your family's loss. Your Mom, you and your whole family are in my thoughts and prayers tonight.
Sanger's point about deterrence-via-denial is an excellent point and it's why I'm on Biden's side of "take the win." Like, the Iranian strike was itself a retaliation for what Israel did vis-a-vis the Syrian consulate strike. If they take the win on neutralizing the Iranian counter-strike, the escalation cycle stops with Israel on top. If they keep it going then the cycle continues with unpredictable ends.
I'm not sorry that those two Iranian officers are no longer available to lend their expertise to terrorists, but hitting a diplomatic mission was wrong and retaliation was inevitable, as Ecuador is currently learning from their equally illegal but non-lethal violation.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but they don't have to start an endless series, either. So yeah, take the win. There's still a war to finish. One war at a time, when the option is available.
My condolences go out to the Swift family. I always had a lot of respect for both journalists and piano players. She sounds like an awesome woman.