The authoritarian project is not Trump's alone. And it appears to me that he is more of a figurehead and cheerleader than originator each week. Vance, Miller, Vought et. al. will continue to push the project regardless of Trump's popularity and capabilities, supported by admin flunkies and tech edgelords. One could assert that Trump is becoming a distraction from the real threats.
Trump is Miller and Vought's ticket to power. Without Trump, nobody has the political power or will to give them cover and influence. They will of course wish to continue the slide into authoritarianism, but with targets on their backs and with nobody powerful to protect them, they'll just be two angry dudes who will be punchlined back into the woodwork by comedy writers.
Trump was able to act with impunity before his past caught up to him, because he wielded the power of the Party single-handedly. Congress gave him a rubber stamp for his oversteps and abuses because they were terrified of him. Literally nobody fears Vance. After Trump's death(which will be within the next couple months) lines will be drawn in the GOP, and none will command a winning coalition outside some deep-red areas and a couple states.
As for the longevity of Trump's family, nobody else in his family subsisted on fast food well into their 70s and beyond. None eschewed exercise like he does. And however long his father lived, Trump himself has been under intense medical care for months now, calling into close scrutiny his physical and mental viability. I think we'll have a President Vance by Memorial Day, watching his party crumble around him.
I’m a retired physician of 31 yrs, also Canadian so not really in this fight. But, I don’t think that Trump is gone within months (unless it’s his own doing; that high a daily dose of Asprin in the elderly is associated with higher rates of Catastrophic Stomach bleeds, and sub-arachnoid hemorrhages (in the skull), both often fatal.) The deterioration of Dementia is slow, heartbreaking— I’ve watched it in my now-age-93 Mom. And the same disease often causes a persistent “loss of Insight”, such that they insist that nothing is wrong with them, called sometimes Anosognosia. And, here, we’re starting with a man who never had much Insight, to start with!
His cognitive decline notwithstanding, it's his physical decline that's far more likely to be what will kill him. He employs people who work hard to present him as vital and powerful, but even with that effort, the cracks are deep. He disappears for days at a time and reappears with fresh IV-concealing makeup on his hand, swollen ankles, and a limping staggered gait. He drew blood from a literal high five with his AG over the weekend. His features are skeletal and gaunt. He does not carry any signs of physical strength, and again, this is WITH a staff concealing his decline from us.
My skin is also paper thin secondary to a medication for rheumatoid arthritis, it's inconvenient but not life threatening. Also regular infusions are used for a variety of physical issues and do not on their own signal end of life.
If Trump dies in the next few months (dunno how you arrived at that conclusion) that gives Vance three years to get stuff done e.g. kill democracy.
What you're not taking into consideration, I think, is that this time round the power players in his base are prepared. Project 2025 for example and a far right SCOTUS willing to do anything for the Project 2025 cause. All they need is to get someone across the finish line who will follow/add to that plan and they're golden. Their propaganda machine is so strong.
That person is not JD Vance. He may politically agree and be compliant with any such efforts, but he lacks the authority to overstep Congress as Trump did, and if he tries, Congress will not let him. Vance won't just inherit Trump's power. He'll inherit the office, but he'll be a lame-duck on an historic scale. Supporting Vance's efforts to enact Project 2025 will produce explosive political backlash. The chance to get P25 across the finish line ended when the government shut down in 2025.
The main problem with Vance is that he is simply not likeable. I think he has a huge chip on his shoulder and hates elites (e.g. Ivy League schools, even though he had a benefactor who got him to one), international alliances and foreigners.
John, I have no heartburn with your timeline, I just wonder what odds you are giving on it happening by Memorial Day (which JD Vane will no doubt try to rename, or at least put a last name before Memorial, but, as you say, he does not have to drawing power.
Despite desperate attempts to conceal it by his staff and the Party, Trump's physical illness is prominent and persistent. I think he'll either die, have a catastrophic health event, or both, before the leaves are back on the trees in all of the lower 48. Any such event will be concealed as well as his staff can pull off, but it's a nest of vipers-- someone will leak what's really happening. I can't offer odds, but I can say the evidence that's gotten through to us shows he is profoundly ill, and not improving.
OK, I understand your evidence, but do not understand your confidence in your timeline. I would have no problem at all with it being true, since just about every comment on JD Vane points out his absolute lack of charisma. And, should your time line be close enough to come true before Labor Day, watch out for a reverse red tsunami, losing water to the mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Marianas Trench.
They have Vance but I don't think Vance can hold the coalition together. Even if he's president for 3 years I don't think Vance can win an election in 2028 (assuming we still have those)
Miller and Vought are unpleasant and uncharismatic extremist ghouls who would never sniff power with any reasonably sane president. They owe their power entirely to being chosen by a president whose lack of moral character is just as glaring as theirs.
Trump was always a distraction from the real threats. Trump is one of those people that, by himself, is (as I hear they say in Texas) all hat and no cattle. Left to his own devices (and pathology and lack of intelligence) he would be happy to exist in a fantasy world of dominance, graft, and retribution. He has no policy, no deep thoughts or knowledge.
The problem is the people around him. Many of whom DO have plans and policy--Miller, various white supremacists and incels, what is left of the GoP intelligentsia, and most dangerously, SCotUS and the unitary executive.
Anyone who wasn't totally in the bag for "originalism" and the unitary executive would realize what a danger that crap was. But even on the Right, ideology often outweighs common sense (which, as the saying goes, is neither common nor sensical).
SCotUS has done far more damage to this country than Trump, et al, could have done on their own.
I completely agree with this take Karl. What we're watching is a lot like a good magician with sleight of hand tricks. We gripe about the ballroom, while 37 countries are added to a restricted list
Jason, where do you see a good magician in that crowd? Weather Vane Vance? And how does an aging, verging on dement loud mouth become a ticket anywhere? Only if you are his ventriloquist can you know what will come out of his mouth next, and neither Vought nor Miller strikes me as having that skill set. And all that needs to happen to scuttle their respective boats is for the Felon to understand that they are trying to manipulate him, told him by family members, whom he still seems to trust.
More like Thiel and technocrats opened the door for Vance, in the Senate. That election, along with his book, elevated him to national recognition, but Trump chose him as his VP because he is weak and would never dare challenge Trump-- and lacks the charisma to rally anyone to his cause if he ever chose to. Trump thinks only of himself, and engineered zero longevity into the party after he's gone.
Exactly! I have been saying for years to stop obsessing over the useful-idiot-in-chief and focus like a laser been on his puppeteers, the shameless opportunists and spineless cowards who are really calling the shots. Part that is to stop posting his picture every time some news includes him however indirectly.
Trump’s antics distract people from paying much attention to what they are doing, and Trump likes it that way. He delegates the pesky, boring actual work to them while he rubs around creating monuments to himself all over town (his face on banners adorning public buildings; the “Trump-Kennedy Center”; the ballroom and now an Arc de Trump). Oh, and makes a fortune. (What’s this “Emoluments Clause” nonsense again?)
You’re right. He’s a figurehead and puppet. It’s Caligula getting his grotesque little wins by renaming things, but that’s fleeting. The real power and focus is fully with the folks who are middle aged. Trump is old, he will die. Trumpism (without Trump) will continue and honestly I think it will get much darker. The activists of the modern right fully and openly endorse fascist figures…
John Roberts doesn't need a ticket to power...he's already Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court, a position where he doesn't have to answer to anyone. Roberts can do anything he wants and there is effectively zero check on him.
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He's not exactly a trojan horse since his appearance does not contradict the cancer that awaited inside. Trump seems to represent (to his voters) the perfect amount of authoritarianism. He softened the ground for the truly dystopian masters-of-the-universe tyranny. Once authoritarianism was no longer considered a deal breaker, the floodgates were unleashed. All kinds of sludge have been swepet in, found their niches and will infect us for a generation at least. But it's not clear under whose charismatic banner they will unite.
Sadly, I see the final scenario as the most likely. The apathy on the part of people that I know is astounding to me. I write and call my representative and senator regularly. I email Republican leaders. I have been asking my friends “when was the last time you contacted your elected folks” and they look down, and look around, and say “yeah, I should do that”. They’ll show up for a “No Kings” rally, then go home and wait for someone else to do something. They hate that oligarchs embrace Trump, but they continue to buy from Amazon. Watching “Nuremberg “ last evening , it sent a chill down my spine when the actor said fascism happened because people let it happen. Ask your friends the same question. And keep doing it. Maybe in the New Year something will change. Don’t bet on it, though.
I know, I know..But - In college in a class on the French Revolution my prof posed the question, Submit or Die! Going around the room almost everyone tried to come up with some alternative but was shot down with the binary choice. For me I said I had no idea what I would do, but the fact that it is so in grained in humans to keep looking for another answer is not nothing. Nuremberg - the ultimate "hot stove". Hope we don't need that much of a lesson.
Bill, you're beginning to sound like JVL! Still, I vote for your #1 scenario! Happy New Year to my Bulwark friends. You keep me sane and well informed. Who needs MSM when we have all of you!
What I worry about most is the mid-term elections. Trump is losing popularity fast, but will he use executive power to skew, corrupt or overturn free and fair election results? He’s done it before and I believe he’ll do it again.
His first step already has begun with the Post Office. I'm in Maine and it has a large number of small towns where the offices are open for only a couple of days a week. Town clerks having to send out ballots will be taxed and may have to put their regular tasks on the backburner
The one thing that sticks out to me was when Trump first met Zelenskyy and was intrigued about the elections being suspended because of war. Maybe this is a bit foil hat, but I wouldn't be surprised if we have a full on assault on Venezuela in June and Trump cancelling elections
That's an absolute certainty. However I do believe that many lawyers and officeholders are aware of this, and are making concrete plans to fight tooth and nail against it.
The biggest disappointment in the last decade for me was finding out just how maleable SCOTUS turned out to be. I recognize they are failable as humans, and can interpret things differently, but if we fail as a Republic (and I am leanig toward probably) much of it will have to do with the Supremes. Yes Congress is responsible but the final arbiters have proven to be nothing but political shills......
The moral arc of the universe seems to be bending away from progress......
The most disturbing thing about SCOTUS is the abject lying that goes unchecked during the nomination hearings. Hard to understand why we keep watching the same thing happen over and over again with no recourse for their “revisions.”
They are political appointees with lifetime terms and virtually zero check on their power. There is no reason for SCT justices to feel pressured by politicians. They can do whatever they want.
I like the scenario model, but I also think the ultimate result will include elements of most of these scenarios. I think Trump will politically weaken, Republicans will lose the House in a blowout, perhaps hold the Senate in a squeaker. The Court will continue to straddle, picking and choosing where to check Trump and where to defer. Institutions and agencies where Trump exerts control will erode, for sure. Capitulators will continue to capitulate when they don’t have leverage, while punching back when they do. The public will demonstrate courage while the powerful will quiver. Trump’s self-monumentalism will persist amid broad public ridicule, including people who voted for him multiple times. We will experience fatigue, rage, hope, and small victories in equal measure. The dial will notch a little bit more back in our direction, even while the bottom doesn’t fall out of MAGA. Republicans will spend the year distancing from Trump and trying to change the conversation to the next party leader contest. It won’t work this year, and they’ll be punished at the ballot box. But not enough to dislodge them from power. The battle will continue. The economy will continue to slog along, benefiting the top 5-10% who will see 401Ks rise more, while the rest will continue to be squeezed by rising costs, especially energy and healthcare, and a bad but not horrific job market. As in 2024-25, the disconnect between traditional measures (GDP, inflation, unemployment) and the felt economy will be unsettlingly vast. (The bubble won’t burst until the fall of 2028, just in time to hand President Shapiro a sh*tshow.)
I don’t think that things are going to meaningfully change unless a number of the people that voted for Trump start demanding accountability or at least a substantial amount of them exit from the public sphere due to disgust and/or indifference. My fears are that it would take a big and sudden shock to the sanctity of their lives or external forces outside the US to make that happen.
The upside is that cults of personality tend to die with the personalities that created the cults, and authoritarian takeovers often have short lifespans due to the incompetence and destructive tendencies of their leaders. The anger and darker elements of the people that brought them to the surface remain, though.
Not really. Look at Venezuela. Chavez was very popular. After things began going downhill because of incompetence, Chavez still retained popularity with his supporters. After he died, Maduro took over. Millions left the country, but even the remainder voted 2 to 1 for the opposition, but the corrupt system and military kept him in power. Don’t think it can’t happen in the US.
Less than one out of every 16 men fought for freedom from England, followed by women and children who tended to their needs. African Americans and Native Americans fought on both sides hoping for the best results for them. Most waited it out. It's always the few that make a difference. I notice that Anti-tRump Republicans expect the worst. (Probably because they can't completely shed that Republican skin.)
Your comment that anti-trump former Repub’s seem to “expect the worst” really resonated with me.
But I attribute it to their profound disillusionment about their former party and the disorientation of feeling “the scales fall from their eyes”. It seems to me that their degree of current pessimism is directly proportional to their former fervor for Republican righteousness (note: Judge J. Michael Luttig, former federalist powerhouse legal mind, seems incredibly pessimistic).
For me—a lifelong liberal voter— it’s easier to be optimistic. Very smart people are now closer to my viewpoint on some key areas of former disagreement (not all of course, but enough).
Where the former repubs are weighed down by the grief of betrayal, I’m buoyed by the strength of more voices calling for the direction that I’ve always wanted.
75% chance that either of Bill’s #1 or #2 options will prevail IF all we keep protesting and calling out the regime’s illegalities and immoralities.
Interesting. Do they possibly hope certain "accomplishments " of the Facist Agenda, (when the too extreme regime is gone), will remain in tact because in reality they want them. Too suspicious????
Left unsaid in Trump’s comments on his health, was why he needs his blood so thin. What other health events has dear leader endured which make him need blood as thin as his skin? Once again dropping tidbits of information without context or explanation invite further questions and grounds for conspiracy. But that’s our Donald ever the tease.
A Facebook friend of mine had theorized that the endlessly enraged behaviors of the leaders (including Trump) might be explained by them being on illicit drugs. It wouldn’t surprise me. Being pissed off this chronically seems like it would be difficult to maintain without help, and it wouldn’t be the first time an authoritarian ruler became an addict by seeking out drugs to maintain an edge or at least the illusion of health (Hitler had Parkinson’s and was masking it through cocaine, heroin, and speed).
My guess is that this isn’t the only thing Trump (and his cronies for that matter) are on. We already know that his cronies are on substances and that the White House doctor was running a pill mill.
Almost everyone who worked on the Apprentice reported that Trump snorts Adderall, as Michael Cohen testified. We know the answers, we just keep pretending to forget what we learn and know.
I must say I am not really surprised. I am not sure the utility of snorting Adderall except that it is probably commentary on activities Trump engaged in in the 1980’s. In retrospect we all should have paid closer attention to the Apprentice.
I never watched Apprentice. I couldn't take it seriously that he was playing a successful businessman when history showed he is a terrible businessman.
And yet, apparently millions actually believed the ridiculous reality TV show. I can best understand Trump by viewing him as a former TV "star" who is long past his prime and actually ended up believing in his own TV character.
I completely agree. My assumptions here are data free. I’m also wondering too if the aspirin article might be an attempt for people in his circle to acknowledge that he has some health issues while trying to mask that he has some very serious ones for which he is taking more severe (and possibly illicit) substances for. Again, complete speculation on my part.
Clearly there was enough speculation for them to feel like they needed to respond, but like his taxes, I would agree they are not telling us everything.
His performance in mid-December, where he gave an 18-minute speed rant to the nation may support that theory. Not sure Trump could have pulled that off without some help.
We don't know he is taking a "high dose of aspirin," more than he's been told to take. He's the one claiming that and Trump lies all the time. He's probably saying that because he thinks that will explain the bruises.
As a retired 31-yr physician, I know that “no elderly person” is advised to take 325mg of Asprin, because of the major bleeding-risks, which get worse as the aging blood vessels thin & balloon-out, and only people with a prior Heart Attack (nowadays) are even advised to take 81mg daily (ie. no longer advised “preventatively”, even if he says that’s why he’s taking it) “After a Heart Attack, to prevent a second” is called by doctors, “Secondary-Prevention”… so, there’s likely been found a prior heart-attack, though the public has not been told. And even then, the correct dose is 81mg, or in Europe 75mg, daily. However, it’s historically called “Baby Asprin”, (though no one gives it to children anymore,) and I bet that Trump balked at anything called a “Baby” dose.
There are always health risks with every medication, and more likely at higher doses. I would expect his physicians are monitoring him closely, well at least hope.
Bill, Andrew and Jim, Happy New Year, intriguing array of options. I'm going for option 1 because these clowns are so incompetent that they're going to create more problems for themselves. Their lying will not save them as people are starting to see through it. Trump will continue to deteriorate despite all the attempts to cover it up and the Republicans are going to get very uneasy on their prospects in the election. Additionally, there are so many wild cards in the deck you'll need a good dealer. Do you see one in this administration? Finally, Epstein is not going away.
Please include the scenario in which Trump’s observably unstable health status removes him from office. This is at least 30% probable. A brain MRI would likely show evidence of micro-strokes throughout his frontal lobes.
Yes. trump's rotting before our eyes. I'd say there's a 10-15% chance Satan calls him home sometime in the next year, leaving MAGA to fight it out among themselves as to who's the true heir to the movement.
Extend the scenario: Trump uses a “health event” as an excuse to step away. Vance then preemptively pardons Trump.
Yes, Trump loves the trappings of the office (especially the role of master of Ceremonies) but the joy that he got from the job is gone.
The key is finding him a health off-ramp that allows him to save face. A “brave, courageous patriot making a personal sacrifice for the sake of the country.”
That would be the rational exit for him, but his severe psychopathy is profound. He may be unable to tolerate any voluntary removal. Given the politics, I can’t see his cabinet invoking the 25th. So, if he departs the office it will because of a health event that inescapably disabling.
Even now, it seems that the general public doesn’t truly understand that Trump, in his lifelong profound illness, is capable of absolutely anything. He truly is a clear and present danger to everyone and everything on the planet. That, alas, isn’t hyperbole. It’s simply a feature of the bugs in the architecture of The Constitution, the operating system of the US. We were lucky to (semi-)recover from the system crash of the mid-19th century, a time when the overall system wasn’t nearly as interconnected, brittle, and equipped with the means to destroy life on earth.
Wrt to Vance. I suspect that Vance’s backers always saw Trump as a booster rocket to place Vance into orbit, and that when they conclude that his fuel is spent hoped to dispose of him.
Finally, curious to what other readers think about the consequences of fuller exposure of the Epstein materials.
Just as Ukraine is fighting to stay a free country from an authoritarian aggressor for the last 3 years with sacrifice and perseverance, we need to fight MAGA with the same ferocity! You don't win the war without it.
Whatever happens with AI will have a lot to do with our political fortunes. If the proverbial bubble bursts, and Trump has a toady as Fed Chair, we could have a major economic disaster. Which may mean that Bill's framing about authoritarianism versus constitutional democracy may not be the framing which our politics develops around.
Excellent piece but Trump couldn’t accomplish anything on his own. He was on his death bed legally, and because he’s easily co-opted, manipulated and desperate, he made a deal with some other nefarious actors and here we are.
My prediction, SCOTUS punts on the tariff opinion; essentially leaving a mixed bag and sending it back to the district court with a narrower window to maneuver.
They will also allow most of the immigration policies to proceed, and will wait until a new president is inaugurated to make any final decisions on immigration until sometime down the road.
Bottom line, the equity markets may continue on a bull trajectory (also depends on his Fed Chair pick), with lots of vulnerable areas in our economy (as well as the worlds), which could easily cause an economic down turn: War, natural disasters, etc.
It will be like 2020, when Trump had decimated many of our vaccine and infectious disease panels two years before COVID with a nation completely unprepared for the fallout; essentially creating a Wild West; or exactly what MAGA loves : CHAOS! IMHO…:)
Most of the tariffs are based on the emergency provision in the law which is likely to get struck down. But he can reimpose most of those tariffs through alternative means. So, yes, I agree it will be a mixed bag.
…or he could die in office, Vance and the Cabinet would be in chaos since none of them can competently inherit the mantel and MAGA could continue to splinter, all of which would make Scenario 1 the greater likelihood. I’m optimistic at this year’s beginning, not naive that there won’t be rough times ahead, but by December 2026 we will be successfully on the march to bring accountability and begin the rebuilding and rejuvenation of a weary, troubled, expectant country. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
I hope he doesn't die in office. He would be wrongly turned into a martyr ahead of an election in which Trumpism is likely to get wiped out. I want the election lose on his ledger.
Not before this November, but I’d give at least 50:50 odds at “before Nov.2028”. And, indeed I think there’ll be chaos. Vance will be “in”, so he’ll get to run for re-election I figure, though maybe there’ll be a Primary. Whatever, Vance is *unelectable* —that’s what I like about him!
The authoritarian project is not Trump's alone. And it appears to me that he is more of a figurehead and cheerleader than originator each week. Vance, Miller, Vought et. al. will continue to push the project regardless of Trump's popularity and capabilities, supported by admin flunkies and tech edgelords. One could assert that Trump is becoming a distraction from the real threats.
Trump is Miller and Vought's ticket to power. Without Trump, nobody has the political power or will to give them cover and influence. They will of course wish to continue the slide into authoritarianism, but with targets on their backs and with nobody powerful to protect them, they'll just be two angry dudes who will be punchlined back into the woodwork by comedy writers.
Be right.
They'll have Vance. I agree he's not Trump but he's all in and he's not nothing either.
Remains to be seen who the GOP base chooses after Trump's passing. But I figure he's got some more years left given the longevity of his family.
Trump was able to act with impunity before his past caught up to him, because he wielded the power of the Party single-handedly. Congress gave him a rubber stamp for his oversteps and abuses because they were terrified of him. Literally nobody fears Vance. After Trump's death(which will be within the next couple months) lines will be drawn in the GOP, and none will command a winning coalition outside some deep-red areas and a couple states.
As for the longevity of Trump's family, nobody else in his family subsisted on fast food well into their 70s and beyond. None eschewed exercise like he does. And however long his father lived, Trump himself has been under intense medical care for months now, calling into close scrutiny his physical and mental viability. I think we'll have a President Vance by Memorial Day, watching his party crumble around him.
I’m a retired physician of 31 yrs, also Canadian so not really in this fight. But, I don’t think that Trump is gone within months (unless it’s his own doing; that high a daily dose of Asprin in the elderly is associated with higher rates of Catastrophic Stomach bleeds, and sub-arachnoid hemorrhages (in the skull), both often fatal.) The deterioration of Dementia is slow, heartbreaking— I’ve watched it in my now-age-93 Mom. And the same disease often causes a persistent “loss of Insight”, such that they insist that nothing is wrong with them, called sometimes Anosognosia. And, here, we’re starting with a man who never had much Insight, to start with!
His cognitive decline notwithstanding, it's his physical decline that's far more likely to be what will kill him. He employs people who work hard to present him as vital and powerful, but even with that effort, the cracks are deep. He disappears for days at a time and reappears with fresh IV-concealing makeup on his hand, swollen ankles, and a limping staggered gait. He drew blood from a literal high five with his AG over the weekend. His features are skeletal and gaunt. He does not carry any signs of physical strength, and again, this is WITH a staff concealing his decline from us.
My skin is also paper thin secondary to a medication for rheumatoid arthritis, it's inconvenient but not life threatening. Also regular infusions are used for a variety of physical issues and do not on their own signal end of life.
What I fear most: A mentally unstable President who remains in power because the Congress cannot declare him incompetent or a danger to the Republic.
If Trump dies in the next few months (dunno how you arrived at that conclusion) that gives Vance three years to get stuff done e.g. kill democracy.
What you're not taking into consideration, I think, is that this time round the power players in his base are prepared. Project 2025 for example and a far right SCOTUS willing to do anything for the Project 2025 cause. All they need is to get someone across the finish line who will follow/add to that plan and they're golden. Their propaganda machine is so strong.
That person is not JD Vance. He may politically agree and be compliant with any such efforts, but he lacks the authority to overstep Congress as Trump did, and if he tries, Congress will not let him. Vance won't just inherit Trump's power. He'll inherit the office, but he'll be a lame-duck on an historic scale. Supporting Vance's efforts to enact Project 2025 will produce explosive political backlash. The chance to get P25 across the finish line ended when the government shut down in 2025.
The main problem with Vance is that he is simply not likeable. I think he has a huge chip on his shoulder and hates elites (e.g. Ivy League schools, even though he had a benefactor who got him to one), international alliances and foreigners.
John, I have no heartburn with your timeline, I just wonder what odds you are giving on it happening by Memorial Day (which JD Vane will no doubt try to rename, or at least put a last name before Memorial, but, as you say, he does not have to drawing power.
Despite desperate attempts to conceal it by his staff and the Party, Trump's physical illness is prominent and persistent. I think he'll either die, have a catastrophic health event, or both, before the leaves are back on the trees in all of the lower 48. Any such event will be concealed as well as his staff can pull off, but it's a nest of vipers-- someone will leak what's really happening. I can't offer odds, but I can say the evidence that's gotten through to us shows he is profoundly ill, and not improving.
OK, I understand your evidence, but do not understand your confidence in your timeline. I would have no problem at all with it being true, since just about every comment on JD Vane points out his absolute lack of charisma. And, should your time line be close enough to come true before Labor Day, watch out for a reverse red tsunami, losing water to the mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Marianas Trench.
And DJT may have his last BLT while VP. JD waits DC.
They have Vance but I don't think Vance can hold the coalition together. Even if he's president for 3 years I don't think Vance can win an election in 2028 (assuming we still have those)
I think you're right.
Miller and Vought are unpleasant and uncharismatic extremist ghouls who would never sniff power with any reasonably sane president. They owe their power entirely to being chosen by a president whose lack of moral character is just as glaring as theirs.
Trump was always a distraction from the real threats. Trump is one of those people that, by himself, is (as I hear they say in Texas) all hat and no cattle. Left to his own devices (and pathology and lack of intelligence) he would be happy to exist in a fantasy world of dominance, graft, and retribution. He has no policy, no deep thoughts or knowledge.
The problem is the people around him. Many of whom DO have plans and policy--Miller, various white supremacists and incels, what is left of the GoP intelligentsia, and most dangerously, SCotUS and the unitary executive.
Anyone who wasn't totally in the bag for "originalism" and the unitary executive would realize what a danger that crap was. But even on the Right, ideology often outweighs common sense (which, as the saying goes, is neither common nor sensical).
SCotUS has done far more damage to this country than Trump, et al, could have done on their own.
The "originalists" pretty openly trashed "originalism" to protect Trump and give him more power.
I completely agree with this take Karl. What we're watching is a lot like a good magician with sleight of hand tricks. We gripe about the ballroom, while 37 countries are added to a restricted list
Jason, where do you see a good magician in that crowd? Weather Vane Vance? And how does an aging, verging on dement loud mouth become a ticket anywhere? Only if you are his ventriloquist can you know what will come out of his mouth next, and neither Vought nor Miller strikes me as having that skill set. And all that needs to happen to scuttle their respective boats is for the Felon to understand that they are trying to manipulate him, told him by family members, whom he still seems to trust.
Voight, Miller and to some extent Vance. JD opened the door for Thiel and other technocrats
More like Thiel and technocrats opened the door for Vance, in the Senate. That election, along with his book, elevated him to national recognition, but Trump chose him as his VP because he is weak and would never dare challenge Trump-- and lacks the charisma to rally anyone to his cause if he ever chose to. Trump thinks only of himself, and engineered zero longevity into the party after he's gone.
Exactly! I have been saying for years to stop obsessing over the useful-idiot-in-chief and focus like a laser been on his puppeteers, the shameless opportunists and spineless cowards who are really calling the shots. Part that is to stop posting his picture every time some news includes him however indirectly.
Trump’s antics distract people from paying much attention to what they are doing, and Trump likes it that way. He delegates the pesky, boring actual work to them while he rubs around creating monuments to himself all over town (his face on banners adorning public buildings; the “Trump-Kennedy Center”; the ballroom and now an Arc de Trump). Oh, and makes a fortune. (What’s this “Emoluments Clause” nonsense again?)
That is largely true. But meanwhile he does very real damage by what he does control, what he has the last word in, and his reckless, deranged words.
You’re right. He’s a figurehead and puppet. It’s Caligula getting his grotesque little wins by renaming things, but that’s fleeting. The real power and focus is fully with the folks who are middle aged. Trump is old, he will die. Trumpism (without Trump) will continue and honestly I think it will get much darker. The activists of the modern right fully and openly endorse fascist figures…
Yup, although Trump is really John Roberts' ticket to power IMHO.
John Roberts doesn't need a ticket to power...he's already Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court, a position where he doesn't have to answer to anyone. Roberts can do anything he wants and there is effectively zero check on him.
There might be a check on him in the future, or a check on his donors, more likely. But not as long as Trump is in office.
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Their ambitions are wildly authoritarian but they also lack the capacity to carry out their most ambitious plans.
He's not exactly a trojan horse since his appearance does not contradict the cancer that awaited inside. Trump seems to represent (to his voters) the perfect amount of authoritarianism. He softened the ground for the truly dystopian masters-of-the-universe tyranny. Once authoritarianism was no longer considered a deal breaker, the floodgates were unleashed. All kinds of sludge have been swepet in, found their niches and will infect us for a generation at least. But it's not clear under whose charismatic banner they will unite.
Bingo!!!
Sadly, I see the final scenario as the most likely. The apathy on the part of people that I know is astounding to me. I write and call my representative and senator regularly. I email Republican leaders. I have been asking my friends “when was the last time you contacted your elected folks” and they look down, and look around, and say “yeah, I should do that”. They’ll show up for a “No Kings” rally, then go home and wait for someone else to do something. They hate that oligarchs embrace Trump, but they continue to buy from Amazon. Watching “Nuremberg “ last evening , it sent a chill down my spine when the actor said fascism happened because people let it happen. Ask your friends the same question. And keep doing it. Maybe in the New Year something will change. Don’t bet on it, though.
I know, I know..But - In college in a class on the French Revolution my prof posed the question, Submit or Die! Going around the room almost everyone tried to come up with some alternative but was shot down with the binary choice. For me I said I had no idea what I would do, but the fact that it is so in grained in humans to keep looking for another answer is not nothing. Nuremberg - the ultimate "hot stove". Hope we don't need that much of a lesson.
Bill, you're beginning to sound like JVL! Still, I vote for your #1 scenario! Happy New Year to my Bulwark friends. You keep me sane and well informed. Who needs MSM when we have all of you!
Same thoughts here. It looks like JVL has rubbed off on Bill!
What I worry about most is the mid-term elections. Trump is losing popularity fast, but will he use executive power to skew, corrupt or overturn free and fair election results? He’s done it before and I believe he’ll do it again.
His first step already has begun with the Post Office. I'm in Maine and it has a large number of small towns where the offices are open for only a couple of days a week. Town clerks having to send out ballots will be taxed and may have to put their regular tasks on the backburner
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/trump-administrations-campaign-undermine-next-election
The one thing that sticks out to me was when Trump first met Zelenskyy and was intrigued about the elections being suspended because of war. Maybe this is a bit foil hat, but I wouldn't be surprised if we have a full on assault on Venezuela in June and Trump cancelling elections
I wonder how that will go, though. We didn't even cancel elections during the Civil War and WWII, never mind things like the Spanish-American War.
However, I agree that if Trump proposes it his henchpeople will line up behind the idea.
Trump was just mouthing a Russian propaganda point. He is to Putin what Karoline Leavitt is to him.
Of course he will, he has more power and more willing goons than ever before. Presidential immunity is just the icing on his cake.
That's an absolute certainty. However I do believe that many lawyers and officeholders are aware of this, and are making concrete plans to fight tooth and nail against it.
The biggest disappointment in the last decade for me was finding out just how maleable SCOTUS turned out to be. I recognize they are failable as humans, and can interpret things differently, but if we fail as a Republic (and I am leanig toward probably) much of it will have to do with the Supremes. Yes Congress is responsible but the final arbiters have proven to be nothing but political shills......
The moral arc of the universe seems to be bending away from progress......
The most disturbing thing about SCOTUS is the abject lying that goes unchecked during the nomination hearings. Hard to understand why we keep watching the same thing happen over and over again with no recourse for their “revisions.”
The justices are basically political appointees and have been for a long time.
They are political appointees with lifetime terms and virtually zero check on their power. There is no reason for SCT justices to feel pressured by politicians. They can do whatever they want.
A black pill moment was realizing that, given their demographics, conservative SCOTUS justices almost certainly watch Fox News ever night.
That's the theory, not the practice. David Souter being the exception of course.
My motto for 2026:
Make America America Again. MAAA.
I like the scenario model, but I also think the ultimate result will include elements of most of these scenarios. I think Trump will politically weaken, Republicans will lose the House in a blowout, perhaps hold the Senate in a squeaker. The Court will continue to straddle, picking and choosing where to check Trump and where to defer. Institutions and agencies where Trump exerts control will erode, for sure. Capitulators will continue to capitulate when they don’t have leverage, while punching back when they do. The public will demonstrate courage while the powerful will quiver. Trump’s self-monumentalism will persist amid broad public ridicule, including people who voted for him multiple times. We will experience fatigue, rage, hope, and small victories in equal measure. The dial will notch a little bit more back in our direction, even while the bottom doesn’t fall out of MAGA. Republicans will spend the year distancing from Trump and trying to change the conversation to the next party leader contest. It won’t work this year, and they’ll be punished at the ballot box. But not enough to dislodge them from power. The battle will continue. The economy will continue to slog along, benefiting the top 5-10% who will see 401Ks rise more, while the rest will continue to be squeezed by rising costs, especially energy and healthcare, and a bad but not horrific job market. As in 2024-25, the disconnect between traditional measures (GDP, inflation, unemployment) and the felt economy will be unsettlingly vast. (The bubble won’t burst until the fall of 2028, just in time to hand President Shapiro a sh*tshow.)
President Shapiro! I like the sound of that!
Excellent analysis.
I don’t think that things are going to meaningfully change unless a number of the people that voted for Trump start demanding accountability or at least a substantial amount of them exit from the public sphere due to disgust and/or indifference. My fears are that it would take a big and sudden shock to the sanctity of their lives or external forces outside the US to make that happen.
The upside is that cults of personality tend to die with the personalities that created the cults, and authoritarian takeovers often have short lifespans due to the incompetence and destructive tendencies of their leaders. The anger and darker elements of the people that brought them to the surface remain, though.
Not really. Look at Venezuela. Chavez was very popular. After things began going downhill because of incompetence, Chavez still retained popularity with his supporters. After he died, Maduro took over. Millions left the country, but even the remainder voted 2 to 1 for the opposition, but the corrupt system and military kept him in power. Don’t think it can’t happen in the US.
Less than one out of every 16 men fought for freedom from England, followed by women and children who tended to their needs. African Americans and Native Americans fought on both sides hoping for the best results for them. Most waited it out. It's always the few that make a difference. I notice that Anti-tRump Republicans expect the worst. (Probably because they can't completely shed that Republican skin.)
We are the majority.
I remain hopeful.
Your comment that anti-trump former Repub’s seem to “expect the worst” really resonated with me.
But I attribute it to their profound disillusionment about their former party and the disorientation of feeling “the scales fall from their eyes”. It seems to me that their degree of current pessimism is directly proportional to their former fervor for Republican righteousness (note: Judge J. Michael Luttig, former federalist powerhouse legal mind, seems incredibly pessimistic).
For me—a lifelong liberal voter— it’s easier to be optimistic. Very smart people are now closer to my viewpoint on some key areas of former disagreement (not all of course, but enough).
Where the former repubs are weighed down by the grief of betrayal, I’m buoyed by the strength of more voices calling for the direction that I’ve always wanted.
75% chance that either of Bill’s #1 or #2 options will prevail IF all we keep protesting and calling out the regime’s illegalities and immoralities.
One of my brothers is a gob smacked Repub. He didn't believe what has happened, would actually happen.
His little sister was over reacting.
This is going to be a very important year.
✌️.
I've seen far-right ideologues use similar statistics to justify pushing an unpopular counterrevolutionary agenda on us.
Interesting. Do they possibly hope certain "accomplishments " of the Facist Agenda, (when the too extreme regime is gone), will remain in tact because in reality they want them. Too suspicious????
Left unsaid in Trump’s comments on his health, was why he needs his blood so thin. What other health events has dear leader endured which make him need blood as thin as his skin? Once again dropping tidbits of information without context or explanation invite further questions and grounds for conspiracy. But that’s our Donald ever the tease.
A Facebook friend of mine had theorized that the endlessly enraged behaviors of the leaders (including Trump) might be explained by them being on illicit drugs. It wouldn’t surprise me. Being pissed off this chronically seems like it would be difficult to maintain without help, and it wouldn’t be the first time an authoritarian ruler became an addict by seeking out drugs to maintain an edge or at least the illusion of health (Hitler had Parkinson’s and was masking it through cocaine, heroin, and speed).
My guess is that this isn’t the only thing Trump (and his cronies for that matter) are on. We already know that his cronies are on substances and that the White House doctor was running a pill mill.
Almost everyone who worked on the Apprentice reported that Trump snorts Adderall, as Michael Cohen testified. We know the answers, we just keep pretending to forget what we learn and know.
I had never heard that before, but then I never watched the Apprentice or paid any attention to it.
I didn't watch either, but Noel Casler has been talking about this for years and Trump never tries to sue him. Then we have Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-white-house-pharmacy-improperly-provided-drugs-misused-funds-pentagon-2024-01-28/#:~:text=Reuters%20Plus-,Trump%20White%20House%20pharmacy%20improperly%20provided%20drugs%20and%20misused%20funds,law%2C%20the%20report%20also%20found.
I must say I am not really surprised. I am not sure the utility of snorting Adderall except that it is probably commentary on activities Trump engaged in in the 1980’s. In retrospect we all should have paid closer attention to the Apprentice.
I never watched Apprentice. I couldn't take it seriously that he was playing a successful businessman when history showed he is a terrible businessman.
And yet, apparently millions actually believed the ridiculous reality TV show. I can best understand Trump by viewing him as a former TV "star" who is long past his prime and actually ended up believing in his own TV character.
As I said above, the lack of clarity provokes further speculation some of which is undoubtedly more creative than the truth.
I completely agree. My assumptions here are data free. I’m also wondering too if the aspirin article might be an attempt for people in his circle to acknowledge that he has some health issues while trying to mask that he has some very serious ones for which he is taking more severe (and possibly illicit) substances for. Again, complete speculation on my part.
I think that’s absolutely it. Like when they revealed his chronic venous insufficiency. They hope by throwing a bone, the curious will be satisfied.
Clearly there was enough speculation for them to feel like they needed to respond, but like his taxes, I would agree they are not telling us everything.
His performance in mid-December, where he gave an 18-minute speed rant to the nation may support that theory. Not sure Trump could have pulled that off without some help.
The high dose of aspirin he is taking daily is dangerous to his already not good health.
We don't know he is taking a "high dose of aspirin," more than he's been told to take. He's the one claiming that and Trump lies all the time. He's probably saying that because he thinks that will explain the bruises.
As a retired 31-yr physician, I know that “no elderly person” is advised to take 325mg of Asprin, because of the major bleeding-risks, which get worse as the aging blood vessels thin & balloon-out, and only people with a prior Heart Attack (nowadays) are even advised to take 81mg daily (ie. no longer advised “preventatively”, even if he says that’s why he’s taking it) “After a Heart Attack, to prevent a second” is called by doctors, “Secondary-Prevention”… so, there’s likely been found a prior heart-attack, though the public has not been told. And even then, the correct dose is 81mg, or in Europe 75mg, daily. However, it’s historically called “Baby Asprin”, (though no one gives it to children anymore,) and I bet that Trump balked at anything called a “Baby” dose.
There are always health risks with every medication, and more likely at higher doses. I would expect his physicians are monitoring him closely, well at least hope.
Yes, and that’s likely why they are telling him to stop taking such a high dose.
Bill, Andrew and Jim, Happy New Year, intriguing array of options. I'm going for option 1 because these clowns are so incompetent that they're going to create more problems for themselves. Their lying will not save them as people are starting to see through it. Trump will continue to deteriorate despite all the attempts to cover it up and the Republicans are going to get very uneasy on their prospects in the election. Additionally, there are so many wild cards in the deck you'll need a good dealer. Do you see one in this administration? Finally, Epstein is not going away.
Please include the scenario in which Trump’s observably unstable health status removes him from office. This is at least 30% probable. A brain MRI would likely show evidence of micro-strokes throughout his frontal lobes.
INCONCEIVABLE! He's the healthiest, strongest, most handsomest president ever!
A brain MRI would show nothing!
(literally ...)
Yes. trump's rotting before our eyes. I'd say there's a 10-15% chance Satan calls him home sometime in the next year, leaving MAGA to fight it out among themselves as to who's the true heir to the movement.
Extend the scenario: Trump uses a “health event” as an excuse to step away. Vance then preemptively pardons Trump.
Yes, Trump loves the trappings of the office (especially the role of master of Ceremonies) but the joy that he got from the job is gone.
The key is finding him a health off-ramp that allows him to save face. A “brave, courageous patriot making a personal sacrifice for the sake of the country.”
That would be the rational exit for him, but his severe psychopathy is profound. He may be unable to tolerate any voluntary removal. Given the politics, I can’t see his cabinet invoking the 25th. So, if he departs the office it will because of a health event that inescapably disabling.
Even now, it seems that the general public doesn’t truly understand that Trump, in his lifelong profound illness, is capable of absolutely anything. He truly is a clear and present danger to everyone and everything on the planet. That, alas, isn’t hyperbole. It’s simply a feature of the bugs in the architecture of The Constitution, the operating system of the US. We were lucky to (semi-)recover from the system crash of the mid-19th century, a time when the overall system wasn’t nearly as interconnected, brittle, and equipped with the means to destroy life on earth.
Wrt to Vance. I suspect that Vance’s backers always saw Trump as a booster rocket to place Vance into orbit, and that when they conclude that his fuel is spent hoped to dispose of him.
Finally, curious to what other readers think about the consequences of fuller exposure of the Epstein materials.
Just as Ukraine is fighting to stay a free country from an authoritarian aggressor for the last 3 years with sacrifice and perseverance, we need to fight MAGA with the same ferocity! You don't win the war without it.
Whatever happens with AI will have a lot to do with our political fortunes. If the proverbial bubble bursts, and Trump has a toady as Fed Chair, we could have a major economic disaster. Which may mean that Bill's framing about authoritarianism versus constitutional democracy may not be the framing which our politics develops around.
Excellent piece but Trump couldn’t accomplish anything on his own. He was on his death bed legally, and because he’s easily co-opted, manipulated and desperate, he made a deal with some other nefarious actors and here we are.
My prediction, SCOTUS punts on the tariff opinion; essentially leaving a mixed bag and sending it back to the district court with a narrower window to maneuver.
They will also allow most of the immigration policies to proceed, and will wait until a new president is inaugurated to make any final decisions on immigration until sometime down the road.
Bottom line, the equity markets may continue on a bull trajectory (also depends on his Fed Chair pick), with lots of vulnerable areas in our economy (as well as the worlds), which could easily cause an economic down turn: War, natural disasters, etc.
It will be like 2020, when Trump had decimated many of our vaccine and infectious disease panels two years before COVID with a nation completely unprepared for the fallout; essentially creating a Wild West; or exactly what MAGA loves : CHAOS! IMHO…:)
My take is that the tariffs decision will have to be a mixed bag, because some, a few, of Trump's moves comport with law.
Most of the tariffs are based on the emergency provision in the law which is likely to get struck down. But he can reimpose most of those tariffs through alternative means. So, yes, I agree it will be a mixed bag.
I think e.g that tariffs having to do with aluminum, steel, and national defense are legit.
Agreed…:)
…or he could die in office, Vance and the Cabinet would be in chaos since none of them can competently inherit the mantel and MAGA could continue to splinter, all of which would make Scenario 1 the greater likelihood. I’m optimistic at this year’s beginning, not naive that there won’t be rough times ahead, but by December 2026 we will be successfully on the march to bring accountability and begin the rebuilding and rejuvenation of a weary, troubled, expectant country. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
I hope he doesn't die in office. He would be wrongly turned into a martyr ahead of an election in which Trumpism is likely to get wiped out. I want the election lose on his ledger.
I doubt that he turns up flowers before his term ends. If he did, MAGA wound find conspiracies galore.
Not before this November, but I’d give at least 50:50 odds at “before Nov.2028”. And, indeed I think there’ll be chaos. Vance will be “in”, so he’ll get to run for re-election I figure, though maybe there’ll be a Primary. Whatever, Vance is *unelectable* —that’s what I like about him!
Fully agree!