Hamas, Israel, and the Brutal Logic of War
Hamas, Israel, and the Brutal Logic of War
Hamas wants as many dead Palestinians as possible.
Two things before we get started, one nice and one not very nice.
Nice: Sarah, Tim, and I are doing a live show in Philly! It’s on Wednesday, May 1 at 7:00 p.m. If you’re in the area, come hang out. Bring your D-cells and your Eagles luchador masks. Tickets are here.
Not Nice: We’re going to talk about Gaza, Hamas, and Israel today and we’re going to do it at the 35,000-foot level of strategic imperatives.
To do that, we’re putting tactical matters to the side. But “tactical matters” are important, too. Tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians are dead already. More will die in the future. Hamas has refused a ceasefire and still holds hostages. The Israeli government has made mistakes (like the inadvertent killing of civilians) and errors in judgment (like restricting aid).
I do not mean to diminish any of this heartbreak when I say that (1) we can talk about the tactical situation another day, but also (2) this is what happens in war.
Now let’s jump up to the geostrategic level.
1. Steady State
It’s useful to think about foreign affairs in terms of equilibrium.
If a local system is in a state of equilibrium, then the various actors will tend to stay at peace.1 If a local system is in a state of disequilibrium, then there cannot be permanent peace. The various actors will be pursuing interests that run counter to each other. Which is a euphemism for: People die.
The easiest way to understand Israel’s challenge in the Middle East is to grok that the local system has been in disequilibrium for several decades.
So think about what equilibrium would look like. There are two possibilities.