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The Silver Symposium's avatar

It's not so much an identity crisis as it is a changing in dynamics and demographics. The reality is that the Democrats have always been a 'not GOP' party since around Nixon. The reality was that for a long time, the GOP vote was concentrated in a way that it is not now. Which means that it's monolith approach is far more effective than the big tent Democratic approach.

The thing was, and people don't want to talk about this, this goes back decades. Clinton was a candidate who won because people were exhausted of 12 years of the GOP. Obama was a candidate who was elected because of the twin crisis of wars and financial crisis. Biden got elected because of the crisis of covid.

Ultimately, no one in the Democratic party has managed to actually pull together a coalition of Democrats in a NOT disaster setting since Carter, and even then he only lasted one term.

Outside of a crisis, no one thing is capable of uniting the party.

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Phillip Murphy's avatar

This is right, except for the last sentence- Carter was elected in the wake of Watergate.

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Marina Pratt's avatar

Yes—exactly! The last time was LBJ … and you could even argue that JFK’s assassination was the “crisis” that he benefitted from.

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Susan's avatar

And since the Republicans can always be counted upon to tank the economy and/or mismanage a crisis, the formula has worked rather well, hasn't it? /s

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Eric Brody's avatar

Silver Symposium, you said:

****[N]o one in the Democratic party has actually managed to pull together a coalition of Democrats in a not disaster setting since Carter, and even then he only lasted one term.*****

.

Seems to me Obama did exactly what you say no Democrat has done.

By your own reckoning, Obama and Biden both won on account of the crisis that prevailed when they first ran. You seem to suggest that Biden-then-Harris lost because the 2024 Democratic standard bearer was not rising to save the country from a crisis.

That is also true of Obama in 2012, and he won.

Perhaps you mean your analysis to apply in the scenario of non-incumbency and you reached back to Carter in 1976 as the only Democratic candidate to accomplish the feat of prevailing as a first-timet in a non-disaster scenario.

How then do we explain Clinton in 1992? Oh, I know -- Ross Perot.

Seems to me there is little utility in the kind of pattern or rule you suggest. Each race has its own peculiarities and dynamics.

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Guy's avatar

And your solution is?

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Jenna Walls's avatar

Seems to me Dems have had the crises handed to them on a silver (gold?) platter. The plundering of our democracy to line the pockets of the corporate and techno wealthy.

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