How Many Haley Voters Can Biden Win?
How Many Haley Voters Can Biden Win?
Digging into the data.
NIKKI HALEY IS GONE. The last of Donald Trump’s Republican challengers bowed out on Wednesday, hours after getting shellacked on Super Tuesday. With that, the next phase of the presidential election has begun: a race between Trump and President Joe Biden to recruit Haley’s voters.
Some of Haley’s supporters were independents or Democrats who crossed over to vote in Republican primaries. But many were registered or self-identified Republicans. To beat Trump, Biden will need some of these Republicans.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some key findings from the 2024 exit polls, as well as other surveys taken in the past month. They paint a bleak picture of a party gone mad. But they also indicate how many Republicans might be willing to vote against Trump in the general election—and what might persuade some of those voters to cast their ballots for Biden.
Let’s start with the Republican primary exit polls. I’ve filtered them to focus on self-identified Republicans, excluding the independents and Democrats who crossed over to vote against Trump.
“In the election for president this November, will you vote for the Republican nominee regardless of who it is?” In the three states that were exit-polled on Tuesday, the percentage of Republicans who answered “No” to that question was 14 in Virginia, 18 in North Carolina, and 25 in California.
Some people in this “No” group are Trump supporters who wouldn’t accept Haley as the nominee. But in two previous exit polls, in New Hampshire and South Carolina, 19 percent of Republicans said they’d be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination, and nearly all of those dissatisfied voters chose Haley over Trump. By these measures, the percentage of Republicans who are open to ditching Trump might be in the range of 10 to 20.
“Does Donald Trump have the physical and mental health needed to serve effectively as president?” This question was posed in four states. In South Carolina, California, and Virginia, the percentage of Republicans who said no was roughly 15 to 20. In North Carolina, it was half that.
“If Donald Trump were to be convicted of a crime, would you consider him fit to be president?” In the six states where this question was asked, the percentage of Republicans who said no ranged from 19 to 27. Among these “no” respondents, Haley beat Trump by two-to-one or better in every exit-polled state except North Carolina. Again, that suggests a persuadable audience of perhaps 15 to 20 percent.
“Do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020?” This question was exit-polled in six states. Not once has a third or more of Republicans acknowledged that Biden legitimately won. And within this group, only a little more than half, on average, have voted for Haley. Mathematically, that works out to—you guessed it—about 15 to 20 percent.
OTHER SURVEYS TAKEN in the past month suggest larger or smaller pockets of persuadable Republicans, depending on the question. Here are some of the findings, starting with questions that yielded the biggest numbers. (All references to Republicans are based on self-identification.)
“Would you vote for Donald Trump for president in 2024 if he is . . . currently serving time in prison?” (Reuters/Ipsos) Thirty-two percent of Republicans said they wouldn’t vote for Trump under that condition. Forty-three percent said they would. You can take that 32 percent as the outer limit of the persuadable Republican universe.
“Would you say that Donald Trump is ethical, or not?” (Quinnipiac) Thirty percent of Republican registered voters said he isn’t.
“Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?” In a New York Times/Siena poll, 27 percent of Republican registered voters said no. But in a Quinnipiac survey, an almost identical question yielded a smaller result: Only 19 percent of Republican registered voters said no.
“Would you vote for Donald Trump for president in 2024 if he is . . . convicted of a felony crime by a jury?” (Reuters/Ipsos) Twenty-four percent of Republicans said they wouldn’t vote for Trump in that circumstance. Fifty-one percent said they would.
“Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think [he] has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?” (New York Times/Siena) Twenty-one percent of Republican registered voters said yes, Trump has committed such crimes.
“Do you believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election fair and square or do you believe that he only won it due to voter fraud?” (Monmouth) Twenty percent of Republicans said Biden won it fairly. Seventy-five percent said he won it by fraud.
“If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, but is convicted of a crime before the party convention this summer, do you think the Republican Party should keep Trump or replace Trump as their presidential candidate?” (Monmouth) Twenty percent of Republicans said in that case, Trump should be replaced. Seventy-four percent said the party should keep him.
Are “the legal charges against Donald Trump . . . legitimate attempts to investigate important issues” or just “political attempts to undermine Trump”? (Fox News) Nineteen percent of Republican registered voters said the charges are legitimate.
“Do you think Donald Trump has the mental soundness to serve effectively as president, or not?” (Fox News) Eighteen percent of Republican registered voters said no, Trump doesn’t have it.
“Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?” (Economist/YouGov) Seventeen percent of Republicans said he isn’t.
“Lawyers for Donald Trump have argued that he is immune from prosecution for alleged crimes he committed while president. Do you agree or disagree that Donald Trump should be immune from prosecution?” (Echelon Insights) Seventeen percent of Republican registered voters disagreed. Within that 17 percent, half strongly disagreed.
“Donald Trump tried to incite a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 to overturn the election results.” (Reuters/Ipsos) Sixteen percent of Republicans said this statement was at least somewhat believable. Within that 16 percent, slightly more than half said it was very believable. But more than 70 percent said it wasn’t very believable or wasn’t believable at all.
“Which comes closer to your view: In the days and weeks right after the 2020 election, Donald Trump and some members of his team . . .” (CBS News/YouGov) Fourteen percent of Republicans chose to finish this sentence with the most damning of three options: that Trump and his team “planned to stay in the presidency through illegal and unconstitutional activities.” The rest chose one of the other options: that Trump and his team “planned to stay in the presidency through legal and constitutional processes” or that they “did not plan to stay in the presidency beyond the end of his term.”
“Donald Trump has been indicted by the federal government concerning his actions following the 2020 vote. . . . Do you think Trump did something illegal, he did something wrong but not illegal, or do you think he didn’t do anything wrong?” (Marquette Law School) Ten percent of Republican registered voters said Trump did something illegal. Thirty-nine percent said he did something wrong but not illegal. Fifty-one percent said he did nothing wrong. (When a Monmouth survey posed a similar question but substituted the word “crime”—and didn’t mention the indictment—the result was smaller: Only 6 percent of Republicans said Trump “committed a crime,” and only 28 percent said he did something wrong but not criminal.)
“According to the 14th Amendment, no person shall be able to hold office if they have engaged in insurrection or rebellion. Do you think Donald Trump should or should not be disqualified from holding office as a result of the 14th Amendment?” (Economist/YouGov) On Monday, one of the days this poll was in the field, the Supreme Court settled the matter of whether states could keep Trump off the ballot. Even so, it’s worth noting that 10 percent of Republicans said he should be disqualified.
“Do the charges brought against Donald Trump in matters relating to January 6th and the 2020 election make you . . .” (CBS News/YouGov) Seven percent of Republican registered voters said these charges made them less likely to support Trump. Fifty-four percent said the charges made them more likely to support him, and 39 percent said the charges made no difference.
“What comes closer to how you would feel if Donald Trump were the Republican nominee for president?” (New York Times/Siena) Among GOP primary voters, 5 percent of Republicans said they would feel “angry.” Another 6 percent said they would feel “dissatisfied, but not upset.”
MANY OF THESE NUMBERS are dismaying. They illustrate the extent to which the Republican party, in Trump’s thrall, has lost its grip on reality, morals, and civic responsibility. But they also reveal some targets of opportunity. A significant chunk of Republicans—somewhere between 5 and 30 percent, depending on the question—is open to information and persuasion about Trump’s lies, his crimes, his corruption, and his attempts to seize power.
A lot of these people voted for Haley in the primaries. They’re thinking about what to do next. Our job is to remind them why they voted against Trump—and persuade them to do it again.