And last week’s Quinnipiac poll showed Biden with a growing lead. I wonder sometimes if polling might primarily be a tool for prompting media spending on political advertising.
And last week’s Quinnipiac poll showed Biden with a growing lead. I wonder sometimes if polling might primarily be a tool for prompting media spending on political advertising.
And it’s a little disingenuous to get a Republican mouthpiece to interview a Republican pollster about the election 9 months away! Talk about low quality partisan polling! I would never believe ANYTHING his North Star Opinion Research would publish. Just hack partisan for-hire propaganda!
And I’m disappointed in The Bulwark for giving such obvious spin a platform here! Ayers is precisely the sort of low quality pollster that Jay Kuo so carefully eviscerated with The Big Picture a few weeks back:
What a great insight into the dubious value of political polling in this day and age. Imagine devoting so much time and attention to the opinions reflected by the 0.4% of people who respond to these polling efforts. And as stated, that is down 75% from the response rate in 2018!
Just a few minutes ago I saw MSNBC lending credence to this same poll. One might ask why. I can speculate that it’s good for corporate media as clickbait and maybe even a way to stimulate more spending on political advertising.
As I have said before, and will continue to say, the only poll that counts is the one in the election booth on election day. All the rest is fluff and flack designed to give media talking heads something to talk about. This does NOT include the Bulwark, since they have lots of other topics that matter without needing to resort to "this poll says this, this one says that, boy are we in trouble (or doing well or better)".
And that’s why we will never, ever get campaign finance reform. Political spending seems to be the bread and butter of what passes for “journalism” these days. It also explains “both sides” headlines. I feel like throwing in the towel.
I understand the feeling. AS the former CEO of CBS, Les Moonves infamously said in 2016, Donald Trump’s candidacy may not be good for America, it’s damn good for CBS. One can reasonably assume that all of corporate media is eager for another highly contentious and from their perspective, highly profitable campaign. Corporations and corporate media doesn’t give a damn what happens to America, as long as they make a profit. And honestly, I expect CNN, NYT, WAPO, etc to fall right in line with the Orange God-King if he is reelected in November.
Can we at least be on the same party barge to Gitmo? Sorry; I don’t feel at all as light hearted as that sounds.
I still think that destroying the lives of so many American consumers would be bad for business, on the large scale. I plan to make as many necessary purchases as I can before the elections, and if Trump wins I will quit spending. But then I suppose Trumpie bureaucrats will just seize my bank accounts to compensate. Things will get darker than MAGAs imagine; liberal tears won’t solve every problem.
I plan on being safely out of country if there is another Trump Presidency. They will have to extradite me from Canada (and I will claim political asylum).
None of these MAGAts know how to actually run an economy. It's going to be a fecal fiesta. Trump certainly doesn't know much about economics, that's for sure.
I’m seriously thinking of heading to Canada for a “vacation” right before the election. However it plays out, violence is guaranteed. I’d rather view it from afar. And if Trump wins, I expect the borders to shut down - not to keep migrants out but to keep Americans in. People think it’s hyperbole; they thought that when I predicted Trump would refuse to leave if he lost in 2020. Imagine the worst, and you’ll be in the ballpark.
Canada, Europe, South Pacific, it does not matter if TFG creates Fortress America, with armed guards, dogs, and attack drones at every entry point to CONUS (not sure what he will do with Hawaii and Alaska, but probably would sell the latter back to Vlad for a song).
Yes, that has crossed my mind. Plus, with loved ones left behind, what’s the point? Another important detail is the fact that authoritarianism is a creeping global phenomenon. I read a comment from Australia to a NYT opinion essay yesterday by an Iowa journalist about the close, lifelong friendships he has lost over MAGA - well written and poignant; the comments were riveting. The Australian comment indicated there are similar nascent political divisions growing there as well. Authoritarianism is a rising global phenomenon. I guess resistance is the only option; for elders maybe passive resistance, like my first comment about no discretionary spending, to hurt the authoritarian economy. And some advance stockpiling of essentials. I’m already trying to do that, even with medical procedures, like getting any deferred dental treatments done now.
GG, I write from a remote location, being an ex-pat in Germany since the days of Peanut v Peabrain (aka 1976). Yesterday and 10 days ago I took part in Frankfurt's peaceful, stationary rally/demo (+/- 20,000 participants) against the AFD, the local version of MAGA, which also happens to be a political party with representation in many "state" assemblies and in the Bundestag since we have a multi-party, parliamentary system. Rallies like that have been occurring for the past several weeks all over Germany, big cities (Berlin had 150,000 attendees last Saturday) and small, where the attendees amount to half or more of the population (OK, many come from "outside" the town).
What finally shook the broad population out of their lethargy (the AFD has formally existed for a decade or so), was a meeting, evesdropped upon and videoed by a crew of investigative journalists, between recognized neo-Nazis and some AFD representatives, including a close advisor (now, belatedly, fired) of the deputy leader of the party in which the topic was "remigration". That means to them, sending non-German appearing, sounding, being, acting immigrants "home", even those who "improperly" received German citizenship!! In other words, deportation of lawful citizens. Know anyone in the US who has talked about mass deportations if HE gets to be in charge?
OK, with Germany's history, perhaps it was to be expected that, in addition to the anti-semitic comments accompanying the anti-Israel demonstrations due to Bibi's Gaza campaign, some reaction would eventually occur. It remains to be seen what ultimate effect this has, but "polls" are already showing reduced public support for the AFD.
Wow, you’ve been gone since 1976? That’s extreme prescience. I’ve been following AFD since the Syrian mass migration. I’m so conflicted about migration; it’s a natural human response to so many crises, but it’s also very destabilizing to the receiving society. I recall reading a detailed math/population analysis that, because of the significant differences in birth rates between native Germans and arriving Syrians (mostly males, admittedly), the fears of a cultural takeover were well founded, and would occur in a short period of time. Germany was making more of an effort than most host countries at assimilation, so it seemed they might escape the more dire predictions. I also felt there was some hypocrisy on the left regarding cultural protectionism in general; more “primitive” cultures seemed legitimately in need of “protection”, but when advanced cultures felt threatened by a foreign influx, that was proclaimed “racist". It’s a conundrum that still intrigues me. You should write a Substack; you’re in a fascinating perch for observation.
And last week’s Quinnipiac poll showed Biden with a growing lead. I wonder sometimes if polling might primarily be a tool for prompting media spending on political advertising.
And it’s a little disingenuous to get a Republican mouthpiece to interview a Republican pollster about the election 9 months away! Talk about low quality partisan polling! I would never believe ANYTHING his North Star Opinion Research would publish. Just hack partisan for-hire propaganda!
And I’m disappointed in The Bulwark for giving such obvious spin a platform here! Ayers is precisely the sort of low quality pollster that Jay Kuo so carefully eviscerated with The Big Picture a few weeks back:
https://open.substack.com/pub/thinkbigpicture/p/weaponized-polling-republicans-trump-biden?r=1zr8b&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
What a great insight into the dubious value of political polling in this day and age. Imagine devoting so much time and attention to the opinions reflected by the 0.4% of people who respond to these polling efforts. And as stated, that is down 75% from the response rate in 2018!
Just a few minutes ago I saw MSNBC lending credence to this same poll. One might ask why. I can speculate that it’s good for corporate media as clickbait and maybe even a way to stimulate more spending on political advertising.
As I have said before, and will continue to say, the only poll that counts is the one in the election booth on election day. All the rest is fluff and flack designed to give media talking heads something to talk about. This does NOT include the Bulwark, since they have lots of other topics that matter without needing to resort to "this poll says this, this one says that, boy are we in trouble (or doing well or better)".
And that’s why we will never, ever get campaign finance reform. Political spending seems to be the bread and butter of what passes for “journalism” these days. It also explains “both sides” headlines. I feel like throwing in the towel.
I understand the feeling. AS the former CEO of CBS, Les Moonves infamously said in 2016, Donald Trump’s candidacy may not be good for America, it’s damn good for CBS. One can reasonably assume that all of corporate media is eager for another highly contentious and from their perspective, highly profitable campaign. Corporations and corporate media doesn’t give a damn what happens to America, as long as they make a profit. And honestly, I expect CNN, NYT, WAPO, etc to fall right in line with the Orange God-King if he is reelected in November.
They won't have a choice if they want to remain in business. I would be willing to bet that, if Trump wins, this place gets shut down at some point.
Can we at least be on the same party barge to Gitmo? Sorry; I don’t feel at all as light hearted as that sounds.
I still think that destroying the lives of so many American consumers would be bad for business, on the large scale. I plan to make as many necessary purchases as I can before the elections, and if Trump wins I will quit spending. But then I suppose Trumpie bureaucrats will just seize my bank accounts to compensate. Things will get darker than MAGAs imagine; liberal tears won’t solve every problem.
I plan on being safely out of country if there is another Trump Presidency. They will have to extradite me from Canada (and I will claim political asylum).
None of these MAGAts know how to actually run an economy. It's going to be a fecal fiesta. Trump certainly doesn't know much about economics, that's for sure.
I’m seriously thinking of heading to Canada for a “vacation” right before the election. However it plays out, violence is guaranteed. I’d rather view it from afar. And if Trump wins, I expect the borders to shut down - not to keep migrants out but to keep Americans in. People think it’s hyperbole; they thought that when I predicted Trump would refuse to leave if he lost in 2020. Imagine the worst, and you’ll be in the ballpark.
Canada, Europe, South Pacific, it does not matter if TFG creates Fortress America, with armed guards, dogs, and attack drones at every entry point to CONUS (not sure what he will do with Hawaii and Alaska, but probably would sell the latter back to Vlad for a song).
Yes, that has crossed my mind. Plus, with loved ones left behind, what’s the point? Another important detail is the fact that authoritarianism is a creeping global phenomenon. I read a comment from Australia to a NYT opinion essay yesterday by an Iowa journalist about the close, lifelong friendships he has lost over MAGA - well written and poignant; the comments were riveting. The Australian comment indicated there are similar nascent political divisions growing there as well. Authoritarianism is a rising global phenomenon. I guess resistance is the only option; for elders maybe passive resistance, like my first comment about no discretionary spending, to hurt the authoritarian economy. And some advance stockpiling of essentials. I’m already trying to do that, even with medical procedures, like getting any deferred dental treatments done now.
GG, I write from a remote location, being an ex-pat in Germany since the days of Peanut v Peabrain (aka 1976). Yesterday and 10 days ago I took part in Frankfurt's peaceful, stationary rally/demo (+/- 20,000 participants) against the AFD, the local version of MAGA, which also happens to be a political party with representation in many "state" assemblies and in the Bundestag since we have a multi-party, parliamentary system. Rallies like that have been occurring for the past several weeks all over Germany, big cities (Berlin had 150,000 attendees last Saturday) and small, where the attendees amount to half or more of the population (OK, many come from "outside" the town).
What finally shook the broad population out of their lethargy (the AFD has formally existed for a decade or so), was a meeting, evesdropped upon and videoed by a crew of investigative journalists, between recognized neo-Nazis and some AFD representatives, including a close advisor (now, belatedly, fired) of the deputy leader of the party in which the topic was "remigration". That means to them, sending non-German appearing, sounding, being, acting immigrants "home", even those who "improperly" received German citizenship!! In other words, deportation of lawful citizens. Know anyone in the US who has talked about mass deportations if HE gets to be in charge?
OK, with Germany's history, perhaps it was to be expected that, in addition to the anti-semitic comments accompanying the anti-Israel demonstrations due to Bibi's Gaza campaign, some reaction would eventually occur. It remains to be seen what ultimate effect this has, but "polls" are already showing reduced public support for the AFD.
Wow, you’ve been gone since 1976? That’s extreme prescience. I’ve been following AFD since the Syrian mass migration. I’m so conflicted about migration; it’s a natural human response to so many crises, but it’s also very destabilizing to the receiving society. I recall reading a detailed math/population analysis that, because of the significant differences in birth rates between native Germans and arriving Syrians (mostly males, admittedly), the fears of a cultural takeover were well founded, and would occur in a short period of time. Germany was making more of an effort than most host countries at assimilation, so it seemed they might escape the more dire predictions. I also felt there was some hypocrisy on the left regarding cultural protectionism in general; more “primitive” cultures seemed legitimately in need of “protection”, but when advanced cultures felt threatened by a foreign influx, that was proclaimed “racist". It’s a conundrum that still intrigues me. You should write a Substack; you’re in a fascinating perch for observation.
For sure. This any any place that even hints at disapproval of the god-king.