I would think MAGA would love RFK, Jr. I mean conspiracy theorist, anti-vaxxer, thumbed his nose at the liberal elite. He has everything but a red hat. Come on MAGA t***p is too old and getting more and more senile and besides he is going to jail, come on just vote for RFk, Jr you can do it.
Caputo gives a good analysis here. Could RFK Jr. take voters from Biden and help Trump? Or take voters from Trump and help Biden? Could RFK Jr. tip the vote in a few battleground states thus effectively deciding who wins the White House? Unknown, of course, but presidential election vote-splitters (along with the electoral college) have already thwarted the majority twice in this century; a vote-splitter might thwart the majority again this year; and vote-splitters will continue to potentially decide elections as long as plurality (winner-take-all) elections remain.
I think Maine - I may be wrong here - will be the first state to run the presidential election this year a bit differently. It may reduce slightly the control of the two major parties in elections but it gives clear answers (NO) to the kind of questions that introduced this comment.
That was really informative, thanks. The Dems need to keep shuffling just a tad to their right (i.e. to the middle) to neutralize this threat. There are a lot more active voters in the middle than out at the bend of the horseshoe.
I'm not surprised that Chavez's family would be pissed that RFK Jr. would associate himself with Cesar by using his name and image in his campaign. Chavez was down to earth, in more ways than one. Hard to tell exactly what orbit around what planet Kennedy's in at any given time.
Regarding RFK, the Republicans message to their voters seems to be, "Yeah, it's great that he's a complete whacko now, but did you know that in his past, he's done some things that are actually good? Not so excited to vote for him now, are you?"
“When voters are informed of Kennedy’s record on environmental issues, taxes, and abortion, his Republican support appreciably drops as his Democratic support rises.” Because even poor conservative voters don’t want the rich to pay more taxes to fund necessities? Because conservatives breathe different air? You know what’s almost as dumb as these dummies? That the Dems are too dumb to convince these dummies to quit being so dumb.
it amazes me that he is still out there, walking, lying, threatening, cheating, selling bibles, and drooling when he should have been put in jail two years ago.
Rita Palma does not want Jr on the ballot even if it elects dt as stated in your article. She wants him on the ballot specifically to elect dt. She clearly states that by the end of the clip. Her priority is defeating Biden, also clearly stated in the video when she says if Jr were to magically take Biden’s electoral votes in NY that dt would win. It’s fantastical that no one would have 270 electoral college reps because Jr swept the blue states, but her plan is to have Congress select trump the presidential victor and she further comments that at least they’d be rid of Biden.
And why is she in a church? I mean, it’s so trumpy. So obvious she’s only with Jr to help dt.
I know RFK Jr. voters personally. These are the « woo-anon » folk: anti vax, conspiracy lovers who truly believe Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci are part of the evil cabal who control the world and purposely invented Covid.
They’re the « Plandemic » viewers, the former Bernie Bros who did NOT vote for Biden in 2020 - and, though once open hearted libs, they are now anti-gay, anti-trans, anti-woke. The transformation is complete. These people would vote for Trump over Biden every day. They call themselves Independent or Libertarian. They go to the chiropractor, not the doctor. Internet supplements over prescriptions. Ivermectin over Paxlovid. They listen to Joe Rogan, Huberman and Jordan Peterson. They distrust government, and trust Elon Musk.
Their team switch is disorienting - and very real.
You might not recognize them as Trumpy: no MAGA hats or gun racks. Their uniform includes crystals, board shorts, yoga pants and Allbirds. There are millions of these folk - I thought I knew them as lifelong far left liberals. They now resemble far right wing nuts, and their votes for Bob Kennedy Jr. will take from Trump, not Biden. Breathe easy.
In my bones I feel that you are right, but what Sarah Longwell will tell you is that Trump voters are mostly pro-Trump while Biden voters are mostly anti-Trump instead of pro-Biden. Anti-Trump voters are much more open to third party and independent candidates, which is why RFK Jr is likely to pull more votes from Biden than Trump. We will just have to see.
I get your point. I’m not saying RFK jr. won’t pull any Biden voters. I suspect more anti government Trump-leaners who are tired of Trump’s personality would appreciate RFK Jr. as an off ramp. I could be wrong of course. But I could be right 🤞. I am very nervous about the Biden campaign overall… We still have 7 months to go 🤞
But these people have always been around, at least for me, I’ve seen them all my life.
They used to claim to be democrats too. But they made me incredibly uncomfortable then and now, I barely have words. We’re in completely different realities now.
“RFK taps into that sense of voter disenchantment that Trump used to own.” Probably an accurate description of the coming election. Trump was an unknown in 2016. People wanted change. Many of those Trump voters may well lean to Kennedy. Once the attack ads begin, "Kennedy, his campaign, and the super PAC supporting him" will "duck for whatever cover they can find."
As Caputo also points out, there has also been a serious anti-RFK push coming out of the pro-Biden/anti-Trump camp (here are a couple of additional sources)
What if what the GOP is /really/ worried about is not that RFK will eat into R votes, but that he /won't/ eat into D votes?
IOW what if the new MAGAland push against Kennedy is just kayfabe meant to shore up his status with potential Biden voters?
•
(That's assuming a rational strategy. Of course you also can't rule out [1] crackbrain chaos or [2] insatiable need to say something spiteful about someone ... both of which sadly seem to be working pretty well for them at the moment.)
Very true, but blocking that might be one of the only things Dems/Republicans agree on, along with giving themselves big raises and fantastic healthcare.
On abortion -- Bill's lips to God's ear. But what's to stop Trump from just saying the opposite next week when it suits him better? We're not exactly famous for our attention span or our memory. Pence might remember, but Trump has already lost him. To what depth Lindsey Graham is willing to humiliate himself is pretty much an academic question at this point. Is your average voter going to remember or give a damn, as long as he says something else entertaining tomorrow?
In theory we want as many voters as possible to cast ballots and everyone who wants to vote should be able to vote.
But the bargain with the Devil is that we have to accept the results of the voters choices.
If that means allowing them to choose an illiberal semi-democratic authoritarian dictatorship then that is what we have have to accept. Even if it means that there will never again be a free and fair election in the future. Because political majorities have captured the system of checks and balances
The very fact that someone like Trump can be considered a viable candidate for office illustrates how decadent our political culture has become.
I know it's unpopular to say it these days, but there's a reason the founders made it so only landowners could vote. Party elites got to choose the candidates and day-laborers didn't get a vote. Turns out that's a pretty good way to keep out demagogues, which are the typical downfall of democracies through history.
What does it even mean to say a candidate is anti-vax? Would not fund a vaccine? Would not mandate vaccinations for the military? Would work to end any and all vaccination?
In the case of RFK Jr, he has told people not to vaccinate their children. He wrote an article for Rolling Stone magazine stating that vaccines cause autism. He has said that the 1918 flu and HIV were caused by vaccines. He was one of the first anti-vax conspiracy theorists to popularize the issue, anti-vax OG if you will.
Of course he has also said that the CIA assasinated his dad and uncle, that herbicides are causing transgenderism, that wi-fi causes cancer, that school shootings are caused by anti-depressants, and that AIDS isn't actually caused by HIV, it's caused by Poppers. He's not just a little eccentric, he's full on crazy. Now that people are scrutinizing him and his beliefs he is trying to walk some of it back, but these are all things he has said publicly in the past.
I'm not sure, either. I think traditional anti-vaxers had serious (even if ill informed) concerns about what they were doing to their OWN children.
Now anti-vax is a political position opposed to medical and scientific elites in general as well as government attempts to mandate any form of intervention that might mitigate transmission of diseases.
My body, my choice unless it's a fetus.
Here in Florida our state health department has officially discouraged COVID vaccines for anyone, at any age.
Not just vaccination, but Florida is rolling back basic pathology.
Sure! Send your unvaxxed kids to school willy-nilly with measles floating around.
I'm just waiting for the Florida Surgeon General to extend his anti-masking priors to surgeries. Can't have medical staff getting CO2 buildup during a surgery, after all.
I would think MAGA would love RFK, Jr. I mean conspiracy theorist, anti-vaxxer, thumbed his nose at the liberal elite. He has everything but a red hat. Come on MAGA t***p is too old and getting more and more senile and besides he is going to jail, come on just vote for RFk, Jr you can do it.
Caputo gives a good analysis here. Could RFK Jr. take voters from Biden and help Trump? Or take voters from Trump and help Biden? Could RFK Jr. tip the vote in a few battleground states thus effectively deciding who wins the White House? Unknown, of course, but presidential election vote-splitters (along with the electoral college) have already thwarted the majority twice in this century; a vote-splitter might thwart the majority again this year; and vote-splitters will continue to potentially decide elections as long as plurality (winner-take-all) elections remain.
I think Maine - I may be wrong here - will be the first state to run the presidential election this year a bit differently. It may reduce slightly the control of the two major parties in elections but it gives clear answers (NO) to the kind of questions that introduced this comment.
That was really informative, thanks. The Dems need to keep shuffling just a tad to their right (i.e. to the middle) to neutralize this threat. There are a lot more active voters in the middle than out at the bend of the horseshoe.
I'm not surprised that Chavez's family would be pissed that RFK Jr. would associate himself with Cesar by using his name and image in his campaign. Chavez was down to earth, in more ways than one. Hard to tell exactly what orbit around what planet Kennedy's in at any given time.
Regarding RFK, the Republicans message to their voters seems to be, "Yeah, it's great that he's a complete whacko now, but did you know that in his past, he's done some things that are actually good? Not so excited to vote for him now, are you?"
“When voters are informed of Kennedy’s record on environmental issues, taxes, and abortion, his Republican support appreciably drops as his Democratic support rises.” Because even poor conservative voters don’t want the rich to pay more taxes to fund necessities? Because conservatives breathe different air? You know what’s almost as dumb as these dummies? That the Dems are too dumb to convince these dummies to quit being so dumb.
it amazes me that he is still out there, walking, lying, threatening, cheating, selling bibles, and drooling when he should have been put in jail two years ago.
Rita Palma does not want Jr on the ballot even if it elects dt as stated in your article. She wants him on the ballot specifically to elect dt. She clearly states that by the end of the clip. Her priority is defeating Biden, also clearly stated in the video when she says if Jr were to magically take Biden’s electoral votes in NY that dt would win. It’s fantastical that no one would have 270 electoral college reps because Jr swept the blue states, but her plan is to have Congress select trump the presidential victor and she further comments that at least they’d be rid of Biden.
And why is she in a church? I mean, it’s so trumpy. So obvious she’s only with Jr to help dt.
I know RFK Jr. voters personally. These are the « woo-anon » folk: anti vax, conspiracy lovers who truly believe Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci are part of the evil cabal who control the world and purposely invented Covid.
They’re the « Plandemic » viewers, the former Bernie Bros who did NOT vote for Biden in 2020 - and, though once open hearted libs, they are now anti-gay, anti-trans, anti-woke. The transformation is complete. These people would vote for Trump over Biden every day. They call themselves Independent or Libertarian. They go to the chiropractor, not the doctor. Internet supplements over prescriptions. Ivermectin over Paxlovid. They listen to Joe Rogan, Huberman and Jordan Peterson. They distrust government, and trust Elon Musk.
Their team switch is disorienting - and very real.
You might not recognize them as Trumpy: no MAGA hats or gun racks. Their uniform includes crystals, board shorts, yoga pants and Allbirds. There are millions of these folk - I thought I knew them as lifelong far left liberals. They now resemble far right wing nuts, and their votes for Bob Kennedy Jr. will take from Trump, not Biden. Breathe easy.
In my bones I feel that you are right, but what Sarah Longwell will tell you is that Trump voters are mostly pro-Trump while Biden voters are mostly anti-Trump instead of pro-Biden. Anti-Trump voters are much more open to third party and independent candidates, which is why RFK Jr is likely to pull more votes from Biden than Trump. We will just have to see.
I get your point. I’m not saying RFK jr. won’t pull any Biden voters. I suspect more anti government Trump-leaners who are tired of Trump’s personality would appreciate RFK Jr. as an off ramp. I could be wrong of course. But I could be right 🤞. I am very nervous about the Biden campaign overall… We still have 7 months to go 🤞
But these people have always been around, at least for me, I’ve seen them all my life.
They used to claim to be democrats too. But they made me incredibly uncomfortable then and now, I barely have words. We’re in completely different realities now.
100 percent. It’s the Twilight Zone.
I have talked about this elsewhere. This shift (such as it is) is not about Right/Left or Liberal/Conservative--it is about Trust/Don't Trust.
Looking at political ideology here is looking in the wrong place.
It's a horseshoeing of both sides' accelerationist fringes.
Yep! The straight line makes a circle!
Kennedy is going to pull from Trump. He overlaps the MAGA crowd and will pull anti-vax votes from Trump.
“RFK taps into that sense of voter disenchantment that Trump used to own.” Probably an accurate description of the coming election. Trump was an unknown in 2016. People wanted change. Many of those Trump voters may well lean to Kennedy. Once the attack ads begin, "Kennedy, his campaign, and the super PAC supporting him" will "duck for whatever cover they can find."
On RFK -- Marc Caputo focused on recent GOP/MAGA hostility to Kennedy. But this seems like a more complicated story.
•
There's been serious anti-Biden noise coming out of the Kennedy camp
(https://lite.cnn.com/2024/04/08/politics/rfk-jr-new-york-biden-trump/index.html) (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/08/rita-palma-robert-f-kennedy-jr-campaign-mutual-enemy-contingent-election-00151151).
RFK has called Biden a bigger threat to democracy than Trump
(https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/04/01/robert-f-kennedy-jr-biden-trump-election-sot-ebof-vpx.cnn)
As Caputo also points out, there has also been a serious anti-RFK push coming out of the pro-Biden/anti-Trump camp (here are a couple of additional sources)
(https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/06/rfk-jr-trump-divided-election)
(https://adamkinzinger.substack.com/p/jfk-jr-entitled-egotist)
•
What if what the GOP is /really/ worried about is not that RFK will eat into R votes, but that he /won't/ eat into D votes?
IOW what if the new MAGAland push against Kennedy is just kayfabe meant to shore up his status with potential Biden voters?
•
(That's assuming a rational strategy. Of course you also can't rule out [1] crackbrain chaos or [2] insatiable need to say something spiteful about someone ... both of which sadly seem to be working pretty well for them at the moment.)
Ranked-choice voting would solve this problem.
Very true, but blocking that might be one of the only things Dems/Republicans agree on, along with giving themselves big raises and fantastic healthcare.
On abortion -- Bill's lips to God's ear. But what's to stop Trump from just saying the opposite next week when it suits him better? We're not exactly famous for our attention span or our memory. Pence might remember, but Trump has already lost him. To what depth Lindsey Graham is willing to humiliate himself is pretty much an academic question at this point. Is your average voter going to remember or give a damn, as long as he says something else entertaining tomorrow?
Dems just need to hammer him on it. It will definitely be hard to pin him on the issue, it doesn't seem to resonate with voters thus far.
This democracy thing is really complicated.
In theory we want as many voters as possible to cast ballots and everyone who wants to vote should be able to vote.
But the bargain with the Devil is that we have to accept the results of the voters choices.
If that means allowing them to choose an illiberal semi-democratic authoritarian dictatorship then that is what we have have to accept. Even if it means that there will never again be a free and fair election in the future. Because political majorities have captured the system of checks and balances
The very fact that someone like Trump can be considered a viable candidate for office illustrates how decadent our political culture has become.
I know it's unpopular to say it these days, but there's a reason the founders made it so only landowners could vote. Party elites got to choose the candidates and day-laborers didn't get a vote. Turns out that's a pretty good way to keep out demagogues, which are the typical downfall of democracies through history.
Parties are supposed to only nominate sane candidates.
Except we don't REALLY accept the results of voter choices, because if we did, then HC would have won in 2016.
THAT is the problem.
Without the EC, Trump is toast.
What does it even mean to say a candidate is anti-vax? Would not fund a vaccine? Would not mandate vaccinations for the military? Would work to end any and all vaccination?
In the case of RFK Jr, he has told people not to vaccinate their children. He wrote an article for Rolling Stone magazine stating that vaccines cause autism. He has said that the 1918 flu and HIV were caused by vaccines. He was one of the first anti-vax conspiracy theorists to popularize the issue, anti-vax OG if you will.
Of course he has also said that the CIA assasinated his dad and uncle, that herbicides are causing transgenderism, that wi-fi causes cancer, that school shootings are caused by anti-depressants, and that AIDS isn't actually caused by HIV, it's caused by Poppers. He's not just a little eccentric, he's full on crazy. Now that people are scrutinizing him and his beliefs he is trying to walk some of it back, but these are all things he has said publicly in the past.
Decades worth of heroin injection, cocaine abuse, and epic philandering with iffy individuals will do that to a person.
Seems like the groundwork for coherent policy inititiatives!!
Yes. All of the above unfortunately. Welcome back polio.
I'm not sure, either. I think traditional anti-vaxers had serious (even if ill informed) concerns about what they were doing to their OWN children.
Now anti-vax is a political position opposed to medical and scientific elites in general as well as government attempts to mandate any form of intervention that might mitigate transmission of diseases.
My body, my choice unless it's a fetus.
Here in Florida our state health department has officially discouraged COVID vaccines for anyone, at any age.
Not just vaccination, but Florida is rolling back basic pathology.
Sure! Send your unvaxxed kids to school willy-nilly with measles floating around.
I'm just waiting for the Florida Surgeon General to extend his anti-masking priors to surgeries. Can't have medical staff getting CO2 buildup during a surgery, after all.