MAGA's New Mantra: "Blame America First"
Plus: 3 words that explain WI's Senate race
āYou were not prosecuted for being a Trump supporter. You were not arrested or charged and you will not be sentenced for exercising your first amendment rights. You are not a political prisoner ā¦ You were trying to stop the singular thing that makes America America, the peaceful transfer of power. Thatās what āStop the Stealā meant.ā ā Judge Amy Berman Jackson, sentencing Capitol rioter Kyle Young to seven years in prison.
**
Welcome back. Wednesdayās Morning Shots addressed the Rightās growing lust for violence, and some of you may have thought it overstated the dangers. After all, itās not exactly breaking news that Roger Stone is a reckless clown; the readership of MAGA journals like American Greatness probably wouldnāt fill a smallish carnival tent; and itās kind of a leap to equate the cosplaying Oath Keeper boys with the Minutemen who stood their ground at Concord and Lexington.
But this puts the threat into some context.
More than 18 months after the rioting at the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob, an estimated 13 million U.S. adults, or 5% of the adult population, agree that force would be justified to restore former President Donald Trump to the White House and an estimated 15 million Americans believe force would be justified to prevent Trump from being prosecuted, should he be indicted for mishandling classified documents, according to a new study from the University of Chicago.
"We have not just a political threat to our democracy, we have a violent threat to our democracy," Dr. Robert Pape, the director of the University of Chicago's Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST) told "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan on Sept. 18. "Today, there are millions of individuals who don't just think the election was stolen in 2020; they support violence to restore Donald Trump to the White House."
Happy Thursday!
MAGAās New Mantra
Some of us are old enough to remember when conservatives were thrilled by Jeanne Kirkpatrickās denunciation of the Leftās tendency to always blame America for the worldās problems.
A lifelong Democrat, Kirkpatrick spoke at the 1984 Republican convention, and lacerated her old party for always attributing every crisis, set-back, and disaster to American perfidy ā from Grenada to Lebanon, to the arms race with the then-Soviet Union.
She turned it into a crowd-pleasing mantra:
When our Marines, sent to Lebanon on a multinational peacekeeping mission with the consent of the United States Congress, were murdered in their sleep, the "blame America first crowd" didn't blame the terrorists who murdered the Marines, they blamed the United States.
But then, they always blame America first.
When the Soviet Union walked out of arms control negotiations, and refused even to discuss the issues, the San Francisco Democrats didn't blame Soviet intransigence. They blamed the United States.
But then, they always blame America first.
When Marxist dictators shoot their way to power in Central America, the San Francisco Democrats don't blame the guerrillas and their Soviet allies, they blame United States policies of 100 years ago.
But then, they always blame America first.
Ah, but how times have changed.
For you students of conservative history, set the 1984 Kirkpatrick side-by-side with the right-wing circa 2022.
This week, when the Nord Stream undersea pipeline exploded ā and experts suspected sabotage ā right-wing id Tucker Carlson was quick to cast blame.
While most international observers suspect that Russia may have blown up the pipeline to punish European supporters of Ukraine, Tucker pointed the finger atā¦. the United States. ā{On] Tuesday night, Carlson strongly suggested the United States is responsible for explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines - and, at times, seemed to more explicitly blame it.ā
Nota bene: There is absolutely no evidence tying the U.S. to sabotage; the narrative makes no sense at all. Hereās Fox Newsās National Security correspondentā¦ an actual reporter:
Not that this matters to Tucker. The Wapo points out that Tuckerās āevidenceā is, to put it politely, āshoddy.ā But, as usual, the facts are not the point here: the key is the instinct. And MAGAās instincts were on full display. Hereās TPUSAās Charlie Kirk, who has become a sort of de facto RNC chair these days:
U.S. intelligence agencies are āguilty until proven innocent in this situationā? They are the ones who have to āprove to us that it wasnāt themā?
This is a weird flex for the āAmerica Firstā crowd, because, (forgive me for offering some historical context) this sounds pretty much likeā¦.. BLAME AMERICA FIRST.
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Speaking of MAGA. Just leaving this here without unnecessary commentary.
In order to understand Wisconsinā¦
ā¦ you need to keep three words in mind: Waukesha Christmas parade.
Nationally Republicans have decided to hammer the issue of crime, but in Wisconsin, the GOP campaign has taken on a singular focus: the horrific incident in which the driver of an SUV plowed into the parade, killing six and injuring 62 people last November.
That driver (whose trial begins next week) was out on an absurdly low bail from a previous incident; and the issue has become a flashpoint in the U.S. senate race that pits Democrat Mandela Barnes against incumbent Ron Johnson.
Back in February, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel flagged the potential problem for Barnes:
Barnes, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, once sponsored a bill to end cash bail in the state.
The 2016 measure would have barred judges from using the "nature, number and gravity" of the charges as the sole reason to hold a defendant before trial. Instead, a judge would be required to release a defendant unless there was "clear and convincing evidence" that a defendant was a flight risk or a danger to an individual or a witness.
In a statement, Barnes' campaign said he remains firmly in support of his proposed legislation, which didn't make it out of committeeā¦.
If elected to the U.S. Senate later this year, Barnes would even support a bill to eliminate the use of cash bail nationwide, his aide said. The federal justice system does not use cash bail as a condition of a defendant's pre-trial release.
"The lieutenant governor believes we should decide who is imprisoned before their trial begins based on how much of a risk they pose to the community, not on how much money they have," Maddy McDaniel, spokeswoman for Barnes' campaign, said in response to a series of questions from the Journal Sentinel.
But that's not all.
The Milwaukee Democrat also pushed a bill in 2016 that would have lowered the penalty for bail-jumping in certain instances.
Fast-forward to the campaign that could decide control of the U.S. Senate. Hereās the top item on the pro-Johnson website, āThe Real Mandela Barnesā
Putting Violent Criminals Back On Our Streets. Even after a ācareer criminalā was released on bail and charged with killing six people at the Waukesha parade, Mandela Barnes supports letting more violent criminals back on the streets.(Collin Anderson, āWisconsin Dem Frontrunner Sponsored Bill To Eliminate Cash Bail,ā Free Beacon, 12/6/21)
The attack ads are running back to back to back to back. Hereās the Johnson campaign:
The NRSC hits the same themes in this decidedly non-subtle ad:
The narrator opens the spot asking, āWhat happens when criminals are released because bail is set dangerously low?ā
The spot then plays newscasts that include footage of the red SUV speeding through the street, narrowly hitting a child. The newscasters note the six people killed and dozens more injured and that Darrell Brooks was free from jail on $1,000 bail.
The narrator says Barnes wants to end cash bail completely.
āHe wrote the bill. Barnes still wants to end cash bail. Today,ā the narrator says to close the spot. āMandela Barnes, not just a Democrat, a dangerous Democrat.ā
The final shot of the ad shows Barnes alongside Dem U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar.
The Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with Republicans, is out with a new TV ad that features the grandmother of a girl struck during the Waukesha Christmas parade tragedy knocking Mandela Barnes for supporting the elimination of cash bail.
The group said the ad is running statewide in all markets. It had filed reports with the FEC totaling nearly more than $5.1 million in independent expenditures between Aug. 31 and a week ago. That includes more than $3.1 million on TV.
The woman in the spot ā identified as Patti, of Franklin ā says her granddaughter Samantha was struck during the parade, suffered a serious brain injury and nearly died.
She says the driver should have been in jail and Barnes āsupports no cash bail that puts criminals like Darrell Brooks back on the streets.ā Brooks was out on $1,000 bail at the time of the parade.
āHeās more worried about criminals than victims,ā Patti says. āMandela Barnes doesnāt have the judgment to keep our communities safe.ā
Barnes is trying to push back with ads like this. But his efforts to show law enforcement support have been something of a FUBAR.
(And, a I wrote last year, the Kenosha police shooting/riots also are still a BFD.)
**
The latest poll:
āThis AARP WI poll shows Ron Johnson is now viewed more favorably than Mandela Barnes and has opened up a lead with independents (Johnson+10), suburban voters (Johnson+9) and voters over 50 (Johnson+7).ā
QUICK HITS
1. Kevin McCarthy: The Gimp Who Thinks Heās a Master
This is so good. Make sure you read Tim Miller in todayās Bulwark:
Where was Big Bad Kevin in the primaries against Majorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar, and the rest? Not only are they still in Congress, but the Coup Squad was out there throughout campaign season this year, putting their stamp of approval on candidates nationwideānot through the furtive Super PAC money laundering that Kevin has to employ to avoid blowback, but right out in the open!
On the other end of the spectrumādefense of the Trump impeachers in his conferenceāKevin was also an abysmal failure. In the primaries where he did try to engage, he was ineffectual at best. In other cases, like those of Liz Cheney and Peter Meijer, the incumbent members of his conference were hung out to dry.
The name āMeijerā does not appear in the Postās story. For good reason. The only thing McCarthy seemed to be able to do for this loyal swing-district representative was get his friends to complain about the mean Democrats campaigning against him. Once Meijer was dispatched by the MAGA mob, McCarthy trekked to Michigan to enthusiastically endorse his primary opponent, John Gibbs, a man who has not only backed Trumpās lies about the 2020 election, but has argued against womenās suffrage, accused John Podesta of being a satanist, and defended antisemites.
Guess weāll put that one in the demerit column when assessing the efficacy of Kevinās āpurgeā of potential distractions.
2. The Neverending Story (of Trumpās Grift)
Another not-to-miss piece by fellow Cheesehead Bill Lueders in this morningās Bulwark:
Within hours of learning that he, his family business, and three of his children were being prosecuted on civil charges for fraud, Donald Trump was trying to make money off of it.
āCan you believe it?ā the former president exclaimed in a fundraising email sent on the afternoon of September 21. āRadical New York Attorney General Letitia James is SUING ME and MY FAMILY. This is an absolute WITCH HUNT, Friend.ā
Trump assured recipients of this appeal that he was āprepared to FIGHT BACK,ā but just needed to know āthat I have your support.ā He asked supporters to āadd your name IMMEDIATELY to publicly stand with me,ā something that would be accomplished by going to a page that allowed for a range of contributions, with the box for a $20 donation highlighted in sky blue and shaking back and forth like a hula dancer.
CHEAP SHOTS
Make America Petty Again
The amount of bail has no correlation to whether or not a person will go out and commit more crimes. It only separates the people who can get the money from those who can't. In cases like the Waukesha Parade, had the defendant been accused of that sort of crime, there would have been no bail. You can't look at what they did afterward and decide that bail was too low (or there at all), you have to look at what charge they were under when the bail was decided.
Unfortunately, you can't get most people to think this through. They're just 'Look what he did on bail!'
Two simultaneous truths: The Waukesha driver shouldn't have been out on bail but our cash bail system is also woefully broken. We have to find a balance between protecting the public interest while also guaranteeing people's rights to not be wrongfully or unduly held. I don't have an answer for how we do this, but it is something we collectively need to resolve