Marco Rubio’s (and the GOP’s) Free Trade Flip-Flop

Plus: The prominent House Republican who might lose his primary tonight.

Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

The GOP was once an ideological party committed to the doctrines of free trade, free markets, and tax cuts. Do you remember those days? It can be hard to bring them to mind now following years of Republicans dumping out their party’s principles in favor of packing in right-wing populist vibes. This is evident in the ways Republicans have either embraced or completely ignored Trump’s wide-ranging, China-targeting tariffs plan.

Even during Trump’s presidency, Republican lawmakers were often vocal in their opposition to his administration’s tariff policies. Some offered direct, vehement criticism when American tariffs elicited retaliatory policies from other nations that came down so hard on the U.S. agricultural industry that Trump needed to bail out farmers. But now, six years later, most Republicans on Capitol Hill think it’s best to just pretend all that stuff never happened and embrace the exact policy they formerly condemned as detrimental to the American economy and the working class. 

The person who best illustrates the speed with which a motivated politician can run back a disfavored belief is Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

Rubio is under top consideration to be Trump’s running mate in no small part because of how he’s conformed to the former president’s demands, regardless of how unintelligible they might be. In an essay last month for the American Conservative, a nationalist conservative publication, Rubio wrote, “In reality, tariffs are good for the economy insofar as they counteract market inefficiencies created by adversarial trade practices.” He then dismissed the idea that tariffs would increase prices for the average American, which is, to be clear, a virtually guaranteed outcome of Trump’s proposed tariffs:

Will greater trade barriers raise some prices at the department store? Perhaps, but American producers will step up to fill the gap. We also need to remember why those prices are so low to begin with. It’s not because Chinese industry is more efficient, and it certainly isn’t because Chinese industry is better. It’s because the Chinese government subsidizes its industry with slave labor and massive market distortions.

It’s not just that things like coffee percolators and crew socks would get more expensive for Americans. A Center for American Progress analysis estimates the proposal would add $2,500 in annual taxes for a typical family. According to Bloomberg News, Trump’s proposed plan would stick Americans with  price increases tantamount to a massive sales tax:

Yet mainstream economists say the GOP candidate’s second-term trade agenda—which could be boiled down to “tariffs on steroids,” as it also calls for increasing duties on Chinese-made goods to 60% or more—would essentially amount to a tax increase for American households. A recent report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics pegged the annual cost for the average middle-income family at $1,700, likening it to a sales tax. The Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, crunched the numbers on the minimum 10% tariff and came up with about $1,500 per household per year, including a $90 increase in the cost of food, $90 for prescription drugs and $220 for autos.

Trump world’s response to this analysis was a bit harsher than what Rubio wrote in his TAC piece. A spokesperson for the RNC said, “The notion that tariffs are a tax on US consumers is a lie pushed by outsourcers and the Chinese Communist Party.”

But most mainstream economists aren’t “outsourcers and members of the Chinese Communist Party,” and neither is Rubio. In fact, Rubio was once a lot more transparent about his belief that tariffs are passed on to American consumers.

In a press release from his 2016 presidential campaign, Rubio detailed the pain that Trump’s proposed tariffs would cause Americans:

Trump advertises his tariffs as a cure-all that would create jobs and economic stability. But we know from recent history — like when the U.S. imposed large tariffs on car tires — that these kinds of tariffs create few jobs and jack up prices.

The same results are inevitable under Trump's proposals except, because he wants to raise prices on so many more goods, they'd mean higher prices for even more Americans.

In other words, this is just another Trump scam. . . .

Americans would see prices on key big-ticket items like cars and electronics jump by more than 25 percent. Can you imagine the bite that will take out of the paychecks of working Americans that Donald Trump claims to protect?

Marco believes American leaders should approach trade in a way that puts our economy and American workers first—for example, by making sure other countries we trade with are playing by the rules. But in the 21st century, imposing sizeable tariffs—essentially huge new sales taxes—is one of the worst things our next president could do for American families and workers. Moreover, such high tariffs probably wouldn't even bring jobs back here; they would likely just push production to a country we haven't put a tariff on.

In his American Conservative essay, Rubio also claimed that because of strong job growth during the Trump administration—without mentioning the crash during the final year of his presidency—the claim that Trump’s 2018 tariffs would hurt the economy did not turn out to be true. According to a United States International Trade Commission report released last year, U.S. importers “bore nearly the full cost” of Trump’s tariffs “because import prices increased at the same rate as the tariffs.” For each 1 percent increase in tariffs, the report says, prices increased by about 1 percent.

The loudest Republican opponents of Trump’s tariffs, such as Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), are no longer in Congress. The ones who are still around have completely gone back on their beliefs and have thrown in with what they once thought was incoherent and dangerous.

Not Good, Bob

Last week in the South Carolina Republican primary for down-ballot races, Rep. Nancy Mace fended off a Republican challenger backed by ousted Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. It was the first stop of McCarthy’s “revenge tour” against the eight GOP lawmakers who voted with Democrats to strip him of the gavel last October.

Hoping to put together a more successful revenge operation than speakership, McCarthy has another—and perhaps better—chance to boot one of his backstabbers from Congress. This time he’s hoping to remove Rep. Bob Good from Virginia’s delegation. Good’s primary challenge comes from John McGuire, a state senator and former Navy SEAL. 

Polling has been mixed, but a recent survey showed McGuire with a 10-point lead on Good. 

McGuire’s best advantage over Good is his coveted endorsement from Trump. Good made the critical mistake of endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during the latter’s short-lived presidential campaign, which enraged Team Trump. It doesn’t matter that he’s the chair of the Freedom Caucus and has 100-percent lifetime ratings from both Heritage Action and the American Conservative Union. Good’s loyalty to Trump fell into question when he supported a different Republican in the primary and was caught on video suggesting Trump might lose to Biden (again). 

Virginia’s 5th Congressional District has a turnover rate rivaling that of the Defense Against the Dark Arts position at Hogwarts. In the past decade, four different Republicans have represented the district. After polls close this evening, that number might become five.

Yes, chef

Over Father’s Day weekend, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer posted to social media the exciting news that his daughter has a grill, and while he has lived in an apartment his whole life, he could now partake in the classic American summer activity of cooking up some classic American grill fare.

Unfortunately for Schumer, users noticed a few problems with the grill idyll: The burger patties look raw, the grill wasn’t even on, and perhaps worst of all, cheese was being added before things were remotely close to being done. By Schumer’s own admission, the outdoor cooking implement isn’t something he or the rest of his New Yorker family have much experience using. He was excited and posing for a picture, but after becoming the day’s main character, he had to delete it. 

Congressional food mistakes didn’t stop there. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) posted a photo of herself Monday night preparing “Ground Chuck in my spaghetti.” The capitalized “Chuck” could be a sign that the post was intended as a jab at Schumer, but regardless of intention, the image contained a folly of Mace’s own. She was not preparing spaghetti at all. Her pan was full of rotini, the corkscrewed noodle often confused with fusilli. 

While this is only something Italians like myself notice or care about, it should serve as a lesson to members of Congress: never tweet. Someone will always find something to roast about you.