There was a segment of the conversation where JVL asked PK about the impact of deportations on the economy. PK talked about how deportations leading to a 1% reduction of the workforce result in 1% lower growth of the economy. Makes sense. But has anyone asked PK (or any other economist) what would happen to the economy if 100 million people were deported?
This is apparently the vision of DHS. See this article for a link to a New Year’s Eve X post that suggested this. (Using stolen artwork, naturally.)
There are only 50ish million immigrants (including naturalized citizens) so to get anywhere near this vision they will need to strip people of their citizenship, which is what they’re starting to do:
It seems to me this would do incredible damage to the economy. There’s no way interest rates could get low enough to offset this. Of course, the human toll would be gigantic too, but we’re talking economics here.
A good discussion, especially of the "noise" in the monthly numbers. I'd have like to hear more about the possible degradation of the reliability and accuracy of the reported numbers because of Trump's interference with the BLS.
What's a bigger worry must be growing possibility of instability in the market for Treasuries. I wonder whether Bessent wakes up each morning with the question, is this the day we won't be able to sell this morning's offerings at any price? At the rate we're going, I won't be too surprised if some year soon the tax refunds many people depend on to keep current with their credit cards is paid with a special issue of non-negotiable 30 year Treasury bond bearing interest at, say, 1%. When asked about the debt in the 2016 campaign, Trump said we can always just default!
Good show, JVL and Catherine. That said, Krugman dragged it down a fair bit. He may be a decent economist, but he bumbles and avoids eye contact with the camera...I suggest you find an economist guest who presents better. Doable.
Catherine Rampell is good, but Paul Krugman won the Nobel prize in economics, and he also won the John Bates Clark medal in economics, which is even harder to win. He’s one of the few economist in history to win both, and he’s a brilliant communicator and teacher. I know you’re trying to be diplomatic to a colleague, but come on.
There’s a more serious point here which is that if we really need economic analysis and insight, there's no way a journalist can compare to this. I'm sorry, but you should always go to a PhD (yes a good PhD, not just any), and certainly if you can get a top professor, this is incredibly better. I have a bachelors in economics, an MBA, and many PhD economics courses. I can tell you the understanding at that level is vastly beyond what a journalist will have. If you want really good economic analysis, I'm sorry, you go to a top economics professor. If you want really good medical science analysis, I'm sorry, you go to a top professor specialized in this science, or research scientist at a major lab.
Journalists can report basic facts and interview the professors or other PhD's, but do it right, please. Expertise matters incredibly in our super advanced high tech world.
Call me crazy, but the story bubbling to the surface about Trump “quietly thinking about” killing NAFTA just three days after the Superbowl, is not a coincidence. I believe that the orange blob’s fuming over Bad Bunny before, during, and after the game, and his ignorance of Puerto Rico being part of the US, etc., led him to frantically search for ways to get back at that gallingly brazen Latino star (you go, Bad Bunny!!) and all Spanish speakers in our hemisphere, and bingo, his lizard brain landed on NAFTA, which he’s been trashing since before his 2.0 incarnation, anyway.
Great to see Paul Krugman on here!
There was a segment of the conversation where JVL asked PK about the impact of deportations on the economy. PK talked about how deportations leading to a 1% reduction of the workforce result in 1% lower growth of the economy. Makes sense. But has anyone asked PK (or any other economist) what would happen to the economy if 100 million people were deported?
This is apparently the vision of DHS. See this article for a link to a New Year’s Eve X post that suggested this. (Using stolen artwork, naturally.)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/homeland-security-japanese-artist-permission
There are only 50ish million immigrants (including naturalized citizens) so to get anywhere near this vision they will need to strip people of their citizenship, which is what they’re starting to do:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/trump-administration-working-expand-effort-strip-citizenship-foreign-b-rcna255427
It seems to me this would do incredible damage to the economy. There’s no way interest rates could get low enough to offset this. Of course, the human toll would be gigantic too, but we’re talking economics here.
I’d like to see some heritage Americans pick the beans and tomatoes in the sun.
The stock market is reacting now to Trump's chaos the way it did to the growth of the real estate bubble of the '90s and '00s.
I highly recommend Krugman’s substack. Reading some posts make me feel like I’m in a college Econ class (which to me is an enjoyable experience).
A good discussion, especially of the "noise" in the monthly numbers. I'd have like to hear more about the possible degradation of the reliability and accuracy of the reported numbers because of Trump's interference with the BLS.
What's a bigger worry must be growing possibility of instability in the market for Treasuries. I wonder whether Bessent wakes up each morning with the question, is this the day we won't be able to sell this morning's offerings at any price? At the rate we're going, I won't be too surprised if some year soon the tax refunds many people depend on to keep current with their credit cards is paid with a special issue of non-negotiable 30 year Treasury bond bearing interest at, say, 1%. When asked about the debt in the 2016 campaign, Trump said we can always just default!
Good show, JVL and Catherine. That said, Krugman dragged it down a fair bit. He may be a decent economist, but he bumbles and avoids eye contact with the camera...I suggest you find an economist guest who presents better. Doable.
Enjoyed today’s guest—thank you :)
I want to look at every business group who supported you know who and ask—is this what you wanted when you were looking down, casting your ballot?
JVL,
Catherine Rampell is good, but Paul Krugman won the Nobel prize in economics, and he also won the John Bates Clark medal in economics, which is even harder to win. He’s one of the few economist in history to win both, and he’s a brilliant communicator and teacher. I know you’re trying to be diplomatic to a colleague, but come on.
There’s a more serious point here which is that if we really need economic analysis and insight, there's no way a journalist can compare to this. I'm sorry, but you should always go to a PhD (yes a good PhD, not just any), and certainly if you can get a top professor, this is incredibly better. I have a bachelors in economics, an MBA, and many PhD economics courses. I can tell you the understanding at that level is vastly beyond what a journalist will have. If you want really good economic analysis, I'm sorry, you go to a top economics professor. If you want really good medical science analysis, I'm sorry, you go to a top professor specialized in this science, or research scientist at a major lab.
Journalists can report basic facts and interview the professors or other PhD's, but do it right, please. Expertise matters incredibly in our super advanced high tech world.
JVL - would you please turn off your pinball machine while taping? The blinking light is distracting. Thanks
JVL, Catherine Rampell and Paul Krugman are an ideal trio. This should be monthly!
And I took JVL's advice and signed up for Paul's substack (because JVL is always right).
Can you please post a link to the charts describing which areas are adding jobs and which aren't? Thanks.
Here you go - charts here show job growth (or losses) over the past 12 months: https://bsky.app/profile/crampell.bsky.social/post/3melmijm32k2r
Isn't rationality just wonderful? Thank you, Lucid Trio!
I love Paul Krugman, what a luxury this panel.
He's the best. I read him everyday!
@JVL: It's "kroogman". You can hear him introduce himself here: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-with-gabriel-zucman
Call me crazy, but the story bubbling to the surface about Trump “quietly thinking about” killing NAFTA just three days after the Superbowl, is not a coincidence. I believe that the orange blob’s fuming over Bad Bunny before, during, and after the game, and his ignorance of Puerto Rico being part of the US, etc., led him to frantically search for ways to get back at that gallingly brazen Latino star (you go, Bad Bunny!!) and all Spanish speakers in our hemisphere, and bingo, his lizard brain landed on NAFTA, which he’s been trashing since before his 2.0 incarnation, anyway.