Many years ago a supposed story ran in Pravda about an auto race between American and the USSR. The headline read, "Soviet finishes second, Americans come in next to last."
One man that does not know what is going on tells everyone else what to do and how high to jump? Why are we listening to Donald Trump?
I try to listen to smart people that really know what is going on and analyse it. Especially people that have an interest in what they are talking about. So, not Donald Trump.
The idea that Social Security and Medicare will be difficult to fund must make Republicans jubilant. They want to bleed them dry and send them on their way.
Nonsense. Even Republicans understand how popular these programs are. That's why Trump campaigned - like most Democrats - by fearmongering about entitlement reform and promising not to do it. Politicians are all opportunists and/or cowards who will not risk telling the electorate truths they don't want to hear. (The sole exception in the past 20 years was Paul Ryan, and we know what happened to him.)
When I watch (then re-watch) these videos featuring brilliant minds who can walk me through it like I'm 12, I'm grateful and depressed. It's terrible to realize how ignorant of economics I am, and how VERY ignorant of economics the vast majority of Americans are, and THEN how very central economics/economics policy is to American voters' "politics". Morons abound. Ugh.
JVL and Catherine - Hello from Occupied MN. Paul Krugman was great guest. I feel a BIG portion of the impacts to our economy are TOTALLY being missed. I think about the Irishman who has been held, and let from his business for months. WE are paying for his substandard housing and needs. Private prison and other bad actors are making money while the impact to our economy is - 3X or more. And beyond this are intangible costing trauma being caused, not to mention animosity being created against the USA. Would be interested for a take on these not so “soft” and incalculable costs from Catherine, Mark Hertling, Adrian, Bill et al. Grateful to the Bulwark and especially the community. See you next week! 💜🔥🧊
Great discussion! One thing I would love to see addressed by Catherine et al.: do people still think the Court is going to reverse the Trump Tariffs? And if not, how is that going to impact the markets? Because my understanding is that the markets have basically been operating on the assumption that the tariffs were going to be reversed and the money refunded. (And even with that assumption, the markets have been pretty lackluster under Trump, especially over the past several months. So it seems like if that assumption turns out to be wrong, it could deal quite a blow to the markets, no?)
JVL and Catherine, Thanks for having Paul on the show. The discussion was very informative yet somehow disturbing. It seems no matter what the topic or issue we talk about, it always comes down to the same analysis. Trump, his administration, most of the Republicans in Congress and the right wing media streams all lie about the topics or issues every minute of every day. Additionally, they do this in support of one man's whims, a many everyone, with eyes and ears, can plainly see is a f-ing moron. Yet, despite this overwhelming evidence, intelligent influential people who could intervene to curb the inequities, sit idly by and do nothing. Their silence is detrimental, divisive and dangerous. What's the old saying, before kingdoms change, men must change.
Great panel, but I am going to pick on the last point Catherine made about "AI" disrupting the economy, and this is a point I have made before and will keep hammering on: "AI" is not going to significantly disrupt the economy -in the way that the "AI" companies are claiming- i.e. by replacing knowledge workers. It -will- disrupt the economy when the bubble bursts and the Magnificent 7 are no longer propping up the stock market. LLMs do not actually do the things their salesmen promise. No "AI" company has ever made money, and their only claim on a path to profitability requires society to invest Trillions with a T dollars in infrastructure that takes years to build, expires faster than it can be built, and even when it's up and running burns Billions with a B dollars every month.
AI isn't replacing talent, but it is being used as a reason to layoff actual working employees to offset debt (see Oracle over the past year - and they recently said they need to drop 30k workers and potentially their Cerner acquisition in order to buy time for OpenAI to pay back their huge loan from last year). It really feels like the AI companies unlocked the same trick Elon is using with Tesla stock to pump up their stocks and rally the market on the backs of vibes and meme-driven growth.
I have zero definitive proof of this - and I'm not sure how it would even potentially be proven - but it definitely feels like there is a Signal chat of market whales that are all insider trading in step with each other, basically utilizing the markets and commodities as a modern day money laundering operation. Imagine a series of synchronized shorts between Mag7 stocks/gold/silver/crypto repeated over and over, basically turning all of them into pump and dump schemes. Oligarchs continue to make money with little to no risk, each of the primary indicators of the tentpoles of the economy all show growth at some time or another, and even members of Congress benefit as long as they keep their mouth shut and behave. It's the type of mob operation that seems fitting for our mob boss President and slimeballs like Nutlick. But outside of a member of the press posing as some random Saudi investor, I doubt such a thing would ever get exposed...
...or maybe I'm just wearing a tinfoil hat. But it's one of the only ways you could explain the elements of the economy that are working for the elites vs the rest of us. It also doesn't seem too extreme for a guy who's been proud of his efforts with tax evasion in the past.
Yeah, I'm kind of tired about hearing how "AI is taking people's jobs". So far, there's basically zero evidence about that. I'm open to the possibility it happens at some point (not sure it will), but right now, companies seem to be using AI as an excuse to cut jobs when the actual reason is something else, such as a weakening economy.
I wish Paul had been allowed to talk more.
All my econ favs together in one video!! Awesome!
Many years ago a supposed story ran in Pravda about an auto race between American and the USSR. The headline read, "Soviet finishes second, Americans come in next to last."
One man that does not know what is going on tells everyone else what to do and how high to jump? Why are we listening to Donald Trump?
I try to listen to smart people that really know what is going on and analyse it. Especially people that have an interest in what they are talking about. So, not Donald Trump.
Trump is a mob boss everyday it is more proof positive
Could not legitimize the "heritage American" idea unless it means Native Americans.
So where are the headlines that "it was all a lie" about immigrants taking jobs from Americans.
The idea that Social Security and Medicare will be difficult to fund must make Republicans jubilant. They want to bleed them dry and send them on their way.
Nonsense. Even Republicans understand how popular these programs are. That's why Trump campaigned - like most Democrats - by fearmongering about entitlement reform and promising not to do it. Politicians are all opportunists and/or cowards who will not risk telling the electorate truths they don't want to hear. (The sole exception in the past 20 years was Paul Ryan, and we know what happened to him.)
When I watch (then re-watch) these videos featuring brilliant minds who can walk me through it like I'm 12, I'm grateful and depressed. It's terrible to realize how ignorant of economics I am, and how VERY ignorant of economics the vast majority of Americans are, and THEN how very central economics/economics policy is to American voters' "politics". Morons abound. Ugh.
Thanks thanks thanks. Like it is but some how I could smile at the end!
The Thai woman is cares for my elderly mom is an angel. She is an amazing, loving woman who my mom adores.
JVL and Catherine - Hello from Occupied MN. Paul Krugman was great guest. I feel a BIG portion of the impacts to our economy are TOTALLY being missed. I think about the Irishman who has been held, and let from his business for months. WE are paying for his substandard housing and needs. Private prison and other bad actors are making money while the impact to our economy is - 3X or more. And beyond this are intangible costing trauma being caused, not to mention animosity being created against the USA. Would be interested for a take on these not so “soft” and incalculable costs from Catherine, Mark Hertling, Adrian, Bill et al. Grateful to the Bulwark and especially the community. See you next week! 💜🔥🧊
People dont feel the usa average they feel it in their own market. I would be looking at it by the big red and blu states.
Great discussion! One thing I would love to see addressed by Catherine et al.: do people still think the Court is going to reverse the Trump Tariffs? And if not, how is that going to impact the markets? Because my understanding is that the markets have basically been operating on the assumption that the tariffs were going to be reversed and the money refunded. (And even with that assumption, the markets have been pretty lackluster under Trump, especially over the past several months. So it seems like if that assumption turns out to be wrong, it could deal quite a blow to the markets, no?)
JVL and Catherine, Thanks for having Paul on the show. The discussion was very informative yet somehow disturbing. It seems no matter what the topic or issue we talk about, it always comes down to the same analysis. Trump, his administration, most of the Republicans in Congress and the right wing media streams all lie about the topics or issues every minute of every day. Additionally, they do this in support of one man's whims, a many everyone, with eyes and ears, can plainly see is a f-ing moron. Yet, despite this overwhelming evidence, intelligent influential people who could intervene to curb the inequities, sit idly by and do nothing. Their silence is detrimental, divisive and dangerous. What's the old saying, before kingdoms change, men must change.
Great panel, but I am going to pick on the last point Catherine made about "AI" disrupting the economy, and this is a point I have made before and will keep hammering on: "AI" is not going to significantly disrupt the economy -in the way that the "AI" companies are claiming- i.e. by replacing knowledge workers. It -will- disrupt the economy when the bubble bursts and the Magnificent 7 are no longer propping up the stock market. LLMs do not actually do the things their salesmen promise. No "AI" company has ever made money, and their only claim on a path to profitability requires society to invest Trillions with a T dollars in infrastructure that takes years to build, expires faster than it can be built, and even when it's up and running burns Billions with a B dollars every month.
AI isn't replacing talent, but it is being used as a reason to layoff actual working employees to offset debt (see Oracle over the past year - and they recently said they need to drop 30k workers and potentially their Cerner acquisition in order to buy time for OpenAI to pay back their huge loan from last year). It really feels like the AI companies unlocked the same trick Elon is using with Tesla stock to pump up their stocks and rally the market on the backs of vibes and meme-driven growth.
I have zero definitive proof of this - and I'm not sure how it would even potentially be proven - but it definitely feels like there is a Signal chat of market whales that are all insider trading in step with each other, basically utilizing the markets and commodities as a modern day money laundering operation. Imagine a series of synchronized shorts between Mag7 stocks/gold/silver/crypto repeated over and over, basically turning all of them into pump and dump schemes. Oligarchs continue to make money with little to no risk, each of the primary indicators of the tentpoles of the economy all show growth at some time or another, and even members of Congress benefit as long as they keep their mouth shut and behave. It's the type of mob operation that seems fitting for our mob boss President and slimeballs like Nutlick. But outside of a member of the press posing as some random Saudi investor, I doubt such a thing would ever get exposed...
...or maybe I'm just wearing a tinfoil hat. But it's one of the only ways you could explain the elements of the economy that are working for the elites vs the rest of us. It also doesn't seem too extreme for a guy who's been proud of his efforts with tax evasion in the past.
Yeah, I'm kind of tired about hearing how "AI is taking people's jobs". So far, there's basically zero evidence about that. I'm open to the possibility it happens at some point (not sure it will), but right now, companies seem to be using AI as an excuse to cut jobs when the actual reason is something else, such as a weakening economy.