How to help Ukraine prepare for an insurgency from a guy who did counter-insurgency work in Iraq during the civil war years:
1) Do what Iran did. This means teaching them how to make "Explosively-Formed Penetrators" or "EFPs." These are a special kind of IED that is designed to defeat insane amounts of armor with radio-shack-levels of co…
How to help Ukraine prepare for an insurgency from a guy who did counter-insurgency work in Iraq during the civil war years:
1) Do what Iran did. This means teaching them how to make "Explosively-Formed Penetrators" or "EFPs." These are a special kind of IED that is designed to defeat insane amounts of armor with radio-shack-levels of cost and equipment. The Iranians taught the Shia militias how to build these and they can devastate even the most heavily-armored MRAP vehicles in US armor inventories. In a single year, the introduction of EFPs made what were previously undefeatable armor produced by the best engineers at places like Honeywell and General Dynamics into overpriced scrap metal. Blue collar tradesmen putting the best American engineers to shame with radio-shack-level shit. We can teach it to them very easily the way Iran did with the Mahdi Militia.
2) Activate the "death trades." The three deadliest tradesmen to be put to work during the Iraq insurgency were Farmers, Electricians, and Welders (in that order). Farmers made the ammonium-nitrate fuel-oil (ANFO) explosives that make up the bulk of the low-metal signature IEDs. 50+ pounds of ANFO per charge if you're going after APCs and tanks like T-80/72. Electricians design the activation switches. Anything from garage door openers to passive-infrared switches like you have at Walmart entrances that open the doors automatically. Electricians are the guys who need to be taught how to wire electronic blasting caps to advanced circuitry switches that they'll solder in their basements at night. Then comes the Welders. These guy design the IED casings and also craft anti-armor obstacles that can fix or channel armor for the RPG/ATGM/IED teams to better ambush APCs/Tanks. We need to stand up militias of these guys and give them IED construction and ambush-planning training. Things like "use natural elevation dips/lifts in the terrain as ambush points for APCs/Tanks because tank drivers lose forward visibility of their tracks and will miss the IEDs in these natural defilades." Also teach them to integrate snipers and mortar fire into these ambushes. Freeze a mechanized patrol with the initial IED, follow up with snipers and then mortar fire into the fixed "kill zone," then dip out within the first two minutes. You've just created 12+ EKIA and can live to fight another day before Russian QRF/air support comes in.
3) Get every ATGM and Stinger missile into the big four (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa) before the defenders there are encircled. Once encircled, logistics are effectively cut off. If these four cities fall, it is hard to see how the Ukrainian military will remain unified as an effective fighting force. Get the ATGMs and Stingers in there *now* before all routes are cut off. The insurgents can integrate ATGMs and Stingers into ambushes. You can combine an ATGM with an IED for the initial ambush blast, inflict casualties, displace, then when the fixed/rotary-wing air support comes in to support the Russian grunts you just ambushed, shoot down an air unit before final egress.
Do these three things, and Putin will suffer catastrophic losses. His troops don't have x4 SAPI plates strapped to them like we did when we were getting blown up on the ground in Iraq. The Russians will be KIA at much higher rates than we were getting even in the '03-'07 peak years of Iraq. I've survived x2 IED blasts, a suicide bombing-initiated complex attack, snipers, and a number of clever IED setups that never got their chance. Trust me. This is the way.
Were not these tactics (not #3) employed in Chechnya? What would be the reason that would make a difference in the outcome? Not criticizing, asking. The Chechins have been fighting Russia for tens of decades -- remember Tolstoy, Haji Murat? -- and they finally lost... to Putin.
^You won't ever hear shit like this from the post-Ivy League NatSec crowd because none of us grunts ever rate that high, even though we have all the experience. "Meritocracy" indeed. Like, not even in the room with these guys lol.
That’s a question for Eliot Cohen I’m afraid. I don’t work in NatSec anymore. It’s not like the Ivy League NatSec opinion crowd goes around asking guys like me for solutions or for what worked and what didn’t. These folks read books and draw their solutions from there. The large majority have never been in combat and couldn’t talk tactics if their life depended on it. Big disconnect between what the Ivy Leaguers talk about at the strategic level and what *actually* happens at the tactical level. We don’t have many combat-experienced leaders/thinkers at the top of the “think chain” if you will, hence why strategic level policy is almost never quite capable of meeting demands on the ground. Too much disconnect between top & bottom.
How to help Ukraine prepare for an insurgency from a guy who did counter-insurgency work in Iraq during the civil war years:
1) Do what Iran did. This means teaching them how to make "Explosively-Formed Penetrators" or "EFPs." These are a special kind of IED that is designed to defeat insane amounts of armor with radio-shack-levels of cost and equipment. The Iranians taught the Shia militias how to build these and they can devastate even the most heavily-armored MRAP vehicles in US armor inventories. In a single year, the introduction of EFPs made what were previously undefeatable armor produced by the best engineers at places like Honeywell and General Dynamics into overpriced scrap metal. Blue collar tradesmen putting the best American engineers to shame with radio-shack-level shit. We can teach it to them very easily the way Iran did with the Mahdi Militia.
2) Activate the "death trades." The three deadliest tradesmen to be put to work during the Iraq insurgency were Farmers, Electricians, and Welders (in that order). Farmers made the ammonium-nitrate fuel-oil (ANFO) explosives that make up the bulk of the low-metal signature IEDs. 50+ pounds of ANFO per charge if you're going after APCs and tanks like T-80/72. Electricians design the activation switches. Anything from garage door openers to passive-infrared switches like you have at Walmart entrances that open the doors automatically. Electricians are the guys who need to be taught how to wire electronic blasting caps to advanced circuitry switches that they'll solder in their basements at night. Then comes the Welders. These guy design the IED casings and also craft anti-armor obstacles that can fix or channel armor for the RPG/ATGM/IED teams to better ambush APCs/Tanks. We need to stand up militias of these guys and give them IED construction and ambush-planning training. Things like "use natural elevation dips/lifts in the terrain as ambush points for APCs/Tanks because tank drivers lose forward visibility of their tracks and will miss the IEDs in these natural defilades." Also teach them to integrate snipers and mortar fire into these ambushes. Freeze a mechanized patrol with the initial IED, follow up with snipers and then mortar fire into the fixed "kill zone," then dip out within the first two minutes. You've just created 12+ EKIA and can live to fight another day before Russian QRF/air support comes in.
3) Get every ATGM and Stinger missile into the big four (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa) before the defenders there are encircled. Once encircled, logistics are effectively cut off. If these four cities fall, it is hard to see how the Ukrainian military will remain unified as an effective fighting force. Get the ATGMs and Stingers in there *now* before all routes are cut off. The insurgents can integrate ATGMs and Stingers into ambushes. You can combine an ATGM with an IED for the initial ambush blast, inflict casualties, displace, then when the fixed/rotary-wing air support comes in to support the Russian grunts you just ambushed, shoot down an air unit before final egress.
Do these three things, and Putin will suffer catastrophic losses. His troops don't have x4 SAPI plates strapped to them like we did when we were getting blown up on the ground in Iraq. The Russians will be KIA at much higher rates than we were getting even in the '03-'07 peak years of Iraq. I've survived x2 IED blasts, a suicide bombing-initiated complex attack, snipers, and a number of clever IED setups that never got their chance. Trust me. This is the way.
Were not these tactics (not #3) employed in Chechnya? What would be the reason that would make a difference in the outcome? Not criticizing, asking. The Chechins have been fighting Russia for tens of decades -- remember Tolstoy, Haji Murat? -- and they finally lost... to Putin.
I like the cut of your jib.
ItAintMuchButItsHonestWork.Gif
^You won't ever hear shit like this from the post-Ivy League NatSec crowd because none of us grunts ever rate that high, even though we have all the experience. "Meritocracy" indeed. Like, not even in the room with these guys lol.
What are the chances that tactics like those are being introduced? Are there guys with this tactical knowledge in positions to help make it happen?
That’s a question for Eliot Cohen I’m afraid. I don’t work in NatSec anymore. It’s not like the Ivy League NatSec opinion crowd goes around asking guys like me for solutions or for what worked and what didn’t. These folks read books and draw their solutions from there. The large majority have never been in combat and couldn’t talk tactics if their life depended on it. Big disconnect between what the Ivy Leaguers talk about at the strategic level and what *actually* happens at the tactical level. We don’t have many combat-experienced leaders/thinkers at the top of the “think chain” if you will, hence why strategic level policy is almost never quite capable of meeting demands on the ground. Too much disconnect between top & bottom.