RFK’s Appeal to Cranks Undercuts a Key Trump Constituency (Cranks)

How RFK Jr.’s candidacy is a threat to Trump.

Tonight on the livestream we’re going to try something different: I’m going to talk with The Youths (pronounced “Yutes”) about their political lives. It’ll be suss and they’ll bring the rizz with their vibes? I don’t know what most of those words mean.

8 p.m. in the East.

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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during a campaign event, “Declare Your Independence Celebration,” at Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County on October 12, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

1. The Crazy

In the main, I agree with Sarah Longwell that we are building an anti-Trump coalition, and not a pro-Biden coalition. As such, adding options to the presidential ballot will, on balance, hurt Biden.

The theory is that there is a whole universe of people who dislike Trump for different reasons.¹ Any third-party option which gives a member of any of these groups a way to vote against Trump that isn’t Biden ultimately weakens Biden’s chance of victory.

But I think RFK Jr. might be the exception to the rule?

First we should understand that current polling says I’m wrong. Trump has a consistent lead over Biden with RFK on the ballot.

The RealClearPolitics average in the two-way race has Trump +2.1; the three-way average with RFK has Trump at +4.3.

I think this is a mirage, for two reasons.