Great podcast. Rick and Tim are a good combo. I'm a little worried about Tim though. You can hear the stress in his voice when he started stalking about polls at the end. The polls show a tied race (the MOE is there for a reason), not that polls in May are very predictive anyway.
Tim (or anyone else with polling blues), if you read this m…
Great podcast. Rick and Tim are a good combo. I'm a little worried about Tim though. You can hear the stress in his voice when he started stalking about polls at the end. The polls show a tied race (the MOE is there for a reason), not that polls in May are very predictive anyway.
Tim (or anyone else with polling blues), if you read this maybe take a break from polls. I know it's hard with them being pushed in your face all the time. But it's May, there will be plenty more polls to look at close to the race, when they're more accurate anyway. Though my guess is they'll mostly be within MOE too, because that's the new normal for presidential elections.
A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Nevada looks like a lost cause and Georgia might be too. What could really help is if 2022 has a similar trend where Biden/Democrats do better in states of the midwest. Hard to repeat that in a presidential election to the same degree because turnout will be higher.
Great podcast. Rick and Tim are a good combo. I'm a little worried about Tim though. You can hear the stress in his voice when he started stalking about polls at the end. The polls show a tied race (the MOE is there for a reason), not that polls in May are very predictive anyway.
Tim (or anyone else with polling blues), if you read this maybe take a break from polls. I know it's hard with them being pushed in your face all the time. But it's May, there will be plenty more polls to look at close to the race, when they're more accurate anyway. Though my guess is they'll mostly be within MOE too, because that's the new normal for presidential elections.
A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Nevada looks like a lost cause and Georgia might be too. What could really help is if 2022 has a similar trend where Biden/Democrats do better in states of the midwest. Hard to repeat that in a presidential election to the same degree because turnout will be higher.
Operate like you’re down 10 with seven minute to go and you need a stop.