My concern for the TN-7 race is that Behn, despite her distancing attempts, will be seen as too far left, as progressive, as woke. Swing voters, who are the ones that determine elections, tend to be more dissaproving or fearful of the extreme left than the extreme right. The 2024 election was the Dems to lose and they did so by offering someone perceived by swing voters as being too left, too progressive, too woke. TN-7 can't be compared to NYC which is a bit of a unicorn. Tn-7 is still mostly Deep South. To make changes to MAGA ya gotta first win! The more progressive the candidate the less likely of the win, especially in the Deep South.
Trying to win over "trump voters" is an epic waste of time and money. Anyone who is ok with Jan 6, shredding our constitutional rights, dragging innocent people off the streets with masked armed thugs, pardoning terrorists, gutting consumer watchdogs and giving our healthcare to crackpots is not somebody that a tweaked "message" is going to convert. Democratic "messaging" did not give us Trump 2.0. Billionaire tech oligarchs, a well funded propaganda machine and ignorant hateful voters ("this is exactly what we voted for") did that. Let them have Trump, take care of our own and figure out a way to consciously uncouple from Dumfukistan. Gerrymander every Blue state. Trump and the TechLords will leave rural America destitute. In a 2 party system they have nowhere to go. They can vote red, blue or don't vote and they will probably go to hell in any case.
That's one way to look at it. Here's another: Dems are reminding the red voters what they have already lost. Will losing all their rights and benefits for the enrichment of the already rich be worth their loss? Will watching ICE round up "illegals" be worth impoverishment and early death? Stay tuned.
Now, Before the Midterms: There should be a massive effort to place a billboard on every major highway on the outskirts of every major town in every Red District in the Country identifying by name the U.S. Representative who voted for the Big Ugly Bill listing the eventual damages it will do to its citizens. The same should be done in every State with a Republican Senator up for reelection. Much of the bad stuff will not be apparent to voters until after the midterms; consequently, Democratic Party messaging between now and then is critical! We need to be in Republican Faces Every Day like they are in ours. I Think Mobile Billboards Would Also Work Well.
JUST AN EXAMPLE: "Your Representative in Congress, (first name, last name) Just Voted to slash Your Medicaid, Medicare, and SNAP Benefits to Pay for Tax Cuts for the Rich! VOTE HIM (HER) OUT."
Is that a slight overstatement of facts? Certainly, but that's what Republicans do all the time and we need to counterattack using the same tactics and be UBIQUITOUS about it, e.g., Billboards.
Each Billboard's message presupposes that Democrats in each District are smart enough to identity the hot button issues that will resonate with the intended Republican audience, be it Taxes, FEMA Support, Economy, ICE Overreach, Medical Coverage, infrastructure, Tariffs, etc. If Dems can't pinpoint the right issues, then billboards will have little effect.
I think your approach of going to "enemy territory" is on target. Just preaching to the choir, standard strategy for Democrats, may be appropriate for fundraising but not adequate. However, instead of Trump's "truthful hyperboly" (that he acknowledged as a strategy already in his Art of the Deal, I suggest accuracy ,not overstatement is more effective. Why? because independents and certainly Republicans will tend to block out anything suggesting partisan rhetoric, But accurate information delivered with restraint may get through
stop with this "democrats need to court republican voters" myth. the era of the independent swing voter is mostly gone, and republicans already have a conservative party to vote for
I agree with Charles! To win back the country the Ds will need to get Trump voters to turn on him, and the erosion of his support will probably be incremental rather than flipping a switch. If you can get a middle Tennessee R to vote for Behn, it won't be as difficult to get that voter to vote D next time. All erosion matters, as does putting the Rs on defense where they should have an easy win. Push, push, push and don't give up!
Interesting column Lauren. But, I wish you would lose the label, "Democratic Intellectuals". I do not have a college degree nor have I worked in a white color job. Not all of Democrats represent that polarization.
Honestly, Tennesseans ought to keep their powder dry for the 2026 election in TN-5 so that the nation can be ridded of the hideous, pandering, ethically-challenged lickspittle Andy Ogles. That ol' boy is d-u-m-b stupid.
Did cousin walks for decades prior to any legality anywhere. In Vietnam when days were slow, we called it inspecting the flightline. I realize succeeding generations want to claim something as their own, but this one likely proceeds their birth! He'll, I was born in the 40's and I assure you such walks were taken before MY birth! With the munchies, meals are enhanced and always have been. Current drives for legality only makes it easier, but it loses something in the transition.
I really think that they really need to reach out to Republicans personally and ask them if they are satisfied with the way Congress is running under the Republicans. Don't focus on Trump at all just focus on the performance of Congress and how this Democrat is offering them something more as a representative. Promise to do their best to represent the district and all the people and not just to serve the interests of the Democratic Party. Ask them what they think needs to change. Don't overpromise and be respectful if they aren't interested.
It is just a fact that some who voted for Trump (in swing states) also voted for Democrats down ballot. Those voters can be gotten and attempts should be made to get them.
Rather than just writing about the usual Democratic party apparatus, I'd be interested in your delving into how Democratic-aligned organizations are contributing, especially in Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio, all of which have Blue [State Name] organizations.
In Tennessee, that's Blue Tennessee (https://bluetennessee.org/). They do their own fundraising with a goal of funding candidates for every office in every election.
I feel like the DNC and state Democratic have let Democrats down, which is why I choose to give my broad political contributions to Blue Ohio.
I'll make one last comment on this topic. Here's Jess Piper on Facebook Reels, talking about a DCCC posting for a remote job in rural outreach -- her specialty. (https://www.facebook.com/reel/23892451820427771)
She goes through the whole litany of where this "remote" job would be located only to end up saying that it's in......DC.
This describes the Democratic Party organization in a nutshell to me.
thanks for this . I always try to donate in red states . If this is truly a battle against fascism , it will be a long one , and over performance in red states shifts everything .
I'd also suggest you check out the Substacks for Jess Piper (Blue Missouri- The View from Rural Missouri) and David Pepper (Blue Ohio- Pepperspectives). Not sure who their counterpart is in Tennessee, and not sure if other red states are replicating this model.
I live in Nashville and not in the district, but if the Williamson County GOP voters turn out, it won't be a single digit defeat. She needs the Democratic base in Nashville proper and hopefully she gets more of the disgruntled voters in the outlying counties.
Even the minimal amount of research that I did suggests that Aftyn Behn is a serious, accomplished person who could be a very good Representative. But if the last Democrat to do well in the area was a Blue Dog Democrat, and if the Party believes that the best Ms. Behn can do limit their loss to single digits, that suggests to me that a capable Blue Dog Democrat could actually WIN by single digits, and have a shot at winning the next General Election, too. And without being weighed down by the "support" of the Democratic Socialists of America hanging around his or her neck.
I wish Ms. Behn well and hope that she wins. But it sounds like the Democrats are committing political malpractice again. A near loss in 2025 is not a "moral victory", it's just a loss, plain and simple. And throwing a lot of money into it just makes it an expensive loss.
A Democrat of any stripe would have great difficulty doing what Behn is doing in this special election. The districts in this part of the state were all redrawn for the express purpose of guaranteeing that the Blue Dog who had a safe seat in Nashville would no longer have a viable district to run in. There have been two congressional cycles since that redistricting. Green's Democratic opponent in the first race was a progressive, and the second race put him up against a mainstream, well-known Dem. The Democrat got 38% of the vote in each case. Gerrymandering works, unfortunately. The backlash against Trump has shifted the dynamic a little, but only a little — at least so far.
Question: Is DJT "a White, supremcist bigot”?
My concern for the TN-7 race is that Behn, despite her distancing attempts, will be seen as too far left, as progressive, as woke. Swing voters, who are the ones that determine elections, tend to be more dissaproving or fearful of the extreme left than the extreme right. The 2024 election was the Dems to lose and they did so by offering someone perceived by swing voters as being too left, too progressive, too woke. TN-7 can't be compared to NYC which is a bit of a unicorn. Tn-7 is still mostly Deep South. To make changes to MAGA ya gotta first win! The more progressive the candidate the less likely of the win, especially in the Deep South.
https://substack.com/@aftynbehn/note/c-181381640?r=4pk5a6
2 POINT RACE!!!!! 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Trying to win over "trump voters" is an epic waste of time and money. Anyone who is ok with Jan 6, shredding our constitutional rights, dragging innocent people off the streets with masked armed thugs, pardoning terrorists, gutting consumer watchdogs and giving our healthcare to crackpots is not somebody that a tweaked "message" is going to convert. Democratic "messaging" did not give us Trump 2.0. Billionaire tech oligarchs, a well funded propaganda machine and ignorant hateful voters ("this is exactly what we voted for") did that. Let them have Trump, take care of our own and figure out a way to consciously uncouple from Dumfukistan. Gerrymander every Blue state. Trump and the TechLords will leave rural America destitute. In a 2 party system they have nowhere to go. They can vote red, blue or don't vote and they will probably go to hell in any case.
So let me get this straight: Dems are spending money on races they might make *close*, but realistically can’t win.
Dems gonna Dem, I suppose.
That's one way to look at it. Here's another: Dems are reminding the red voters what they have already lost. Will losing all their rights and benefits for the enrichment of the already rich be worth their loss? Will watching ICE round up "illegals" be worth impoverishment and early death? Stay tuned.
Elections are about taking back badly-needed power. A lack of pragmatism from DNC just doesn’t bode well for the future of democracy.
Now, Before the Midterms: There should be a massive effort to place a billboard on every major highway on the outskirts of every major town in every Red District in the Country identifying by name the U.S. Representative who voted for the Big Ugly Bill listing the eventual damages it will do to its citizens. The same should be done in every State with a Republican Senator up for reelection. Much of the bad stuff will not be apparent to voters until after the midterms; consequently, Democratic Party messaging between now and then is critical! We need to be in Republican Faces Every Day like they are in ours. I Think Mobile Billboards Would Also Work Well.
JUST AN EXAMPLE: "Your Representative in Congress, (first name, last name) Just Voted to slash Your Medicaid, Medicare, and SNAP Benefits to Pay for Tax Cuts for the Rich! VOTE HIM (HER) OUT."
Is that a slight overstatement of facts? Certainly, but that's what Republicans do all the time and we need to counterattack using the same tactics and be UBIQUITOUS about it, e.g., Billboards.
Each Billboard's message presupposes that Democrats in each District are smart enough to identity the hot button issues that will resonate with the intended Republican audience, be it Taxes, FEMA Support, Economy, ICE Overreach, Medical Coverage, infrastructure, Tariffs, etc. If Dems can't pinpoint the right issues, then billboards will have little effect.
I think your approach of going to "enemy territory" is on target. Just preaching to the choir, standard strategy for Democrats, may be appropriate for fundraising but not adequate. However, instead of Trump's "truthful hyperboly" (that he acknowledged as a strategy already in his Art of the Deal, I suggest accuracy ,not overstatement is more effective. Why? because independents and certainly Republicans will tend to block out anything suggesting partisan rhetoric, But accurate information delivered with restraint may get through
stop with this "democrats need to court republican voters" myth. the era of the independent swing voter is mostly gone, and republicans already have a conservative party to vote for
I agree with Charles! To win back the country the Ds will need to get Trump voters to turn on him, and the erosion of his support will probably be incremental rather than flipping a switch. If you can get a middle Tennessee R to vote for Behn, it won't be as difficult to get that voter to vote D next time. All erosion matters, as does putting the Rs on defense where they should have an easy win. Push, push, push and don't give up!
Interesting column Lauren. But, I wish you would lose the label, "Democratic Intellectuals". I do not have a college degree nor have I worked in a white color job. Not all of Democrats represent that polarization.
Honestly, Tennesseans ought to keep their powder dry for the 2026 election in TN-5 so that the nation can be ridded of the hideous, pandering, ethically-challenged lickspittle Andy Ogles. That ol' boy is d-u-m-b stupid.
It's the job of the Ds change the voters' minds and bring them into the anti-Trump tent.
Did cousin walks for decades prior to any legality anywhere. In Vietnam when days were slow, we called it inspecting the flightline. I realize succeeding generations want to claim something as their own, but this one likely proceeds their birth! He'll, I was born in the 40's and I assure you such walks were taken before MY birth! With the munchies, meals are enhanced and always have been. Current drives for legality only makes it easier, but it loses something in the transition.
“We believe that any overperformance is a significant victory in a district like this,” Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin told me.
Nope. “Any overperformance” may be a significant improvement. Getting the most votes is a victory.
I really think that they really need to reach out to Republicans personally and ask them if they are satisfied with the way Congress is running under the Republicans. Don't focus on Trump at all just focus on the performance of Congress and how this Democrat is offering them something more as a representative. Promise to do their best to represent the district and all the people and not just to serve the interests of the Democratic Party. Ask them what they think needs to change. Don't overpromise and be respectful if they aren't interested.
It is just a fact that some who voted for Trump (in swing states) also voted for Democrats down ballot. Those voters can be gotten and attempts should be made to get them.
Rather than just writing about the usual Democratic party apparatus, I'd be interested in your delving into how Democratic-aligned organizations are contributing, especially in Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio, all of which have Blue [State Name] organizations.
In Tennessee, that's Blue Tennessee (https://bluetennessee.org/). They do their own fundraising with a goal of funding candidates for every office in every election.
I feel like the DNC and state Democratic have let Democrats down, which is why I choose to give my broad political contributions to Blue Ohio.
OK - one more. This just came in. Jess Piper talking to Jennifer Rubin of The Contrarian. Worth watching this 17 minute video. https://contrarian.substack.com/p/theyre-engaged-theyre-optimistic
I'll make one last comment on this topic. Here's Jess Piper on Facebook Reels, talking about a DCCC posting for a remote job in rural outreach -- her specialty. (https://www.facebook.com/reel/23892451820427771)
She goes through the whole litany of where this "remote" job would be located only to end up saying that it's in......DC.
This describes the Democratic Party organization in a nutshell to me.
thanks for this . I always try to donate in red states . If this is truly a battle against fascism , it will be a long one , and over performance in red states shifts everything .
I'd also suggest you check out the Substacks for Jess Piper (Blue Missouri- The View from Rural Missouri) and David Pepper (Blue Ohio- Pepperspectives). Not sure who their counterpart is in Tennessee, and not sure if other red states are replicating this model.
I'll second Jess Piper's substack. Worth following.
I live in Nashville and not in the district, but if the Williamson County GOP voters turn out, it won't be a single digit defeat. She needs the Democratic base in Nashville proper and hopefully she gets more of the disgruntled voters in the outlying counties.
Even the minimal amount of research that I did suggests that Aftyn Behn is a serious, accomplished person who could be a very good Representative. But if the last Democrat to do well in the area was a Blue Dog Democrat, and if the Party believes that the best Ms. Behn can do limit their loss to single digits, that suggests to me that a capable Blue Dog Democrat could actually WIN by single digits, and have a shot at winning the next General Election, too. And without being weighed down by the "support" of the Democratic Socialists of America hanging around his or her neck.
I wish Ms. Behn well and hope that she wins. But it sounds like the Democrats are committing political malpractice again. A near loss in 2025 is not a "moral victory", it's just a loss, plain and simple. And throwing a lot of money into it just makes it an expensive loss.
A Democrat of any stripe would have great difficulty doing what Behn is doing in this special election. The districts in this part of the state were all redrawn for the express purpose of guaranteeing that the Blue Dog who had a safe seat in Nashville would no longer have a viable district to run in. There have been two congressional cycles since that redistricting. Green's Democratic opponent in the first race was a progressive, and the second race put him up against a mainstream, well-known Dem. The Democrat got 38% of the vote in each case. Gerrymandering works, unfortunately. The backlash against Trump has shifted the dynamic a little, but only a little — at least so far.
If Behn were to fail to hit certain performance marks, would Democrats take that as a sign that mobilization is not a viable strategy?
Not in the Party of the Participation Trophy, I'm afraid. I live in hope that they'll prove me wrong, though.