1. Polling
Over the weekend the New York Times released a poll of battleground states that freaked everyone the eff out because it shows Trump beating Biden in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden had a slight lead in Wisconsin. Yay.
The response in Democratic quarters was to say that either (1) this is a bad poll or (2) it’s so early that this poll is meaningless.
I disagree on both counts. Maybe this poll is off center. Charlie highlighted some questionable numbers in it. But directionally it fits with just about every other poll we’ve seen for weeks. And not just the top-line choices, but the opinions in the crosstabs.1
As for whether or not it’s too early to matter, I go back to my contention that the fact that we have two presidents running against one another is underappreciated as a differentiator. One effect of this difference is that the contest is likely to be more stable than most because both candidates are completely known quantities.
I am sorry, but Joe Biden is a clear underdog.
So should he step away?
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