The Case for Staying Optimistic About Harris
Undecided voters haven't turned on her. They just need to hear more from her. The debate is an opportunity to start closing the deal.
YESTERDAY’S NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA poll was the first major poll in a while to show Vice President Kamala Harris trailing disgraced former President Donald Trump.
This poll may have surprised some Democrats and sent them into panic. It shouldn’t have. I’ve conducted nearly a dozen focus groups with swing and persuadable voters since Harris became the nominee and in those conversations it’s been clear that the fact remains that the VP has work to do with these folks. More than that, if you look at the numbers and talk to these people, it’s evident that Harris has room to win them over; Trump far less so. Let me explain.
HARRIS DESERVES REAL CREDIT for the speed and alacrity with which she jumpstarted a disconsolate Democratic coalition. But ultimately this feat simply reverted the election to its mean: Fired up Dems versus fired up Republicans with a margin-making handful of low-information voters and independents who need to be convinced to make an affirmative decision for one of the two major candidates.
And those voters don’t feel like they know enough about Harris to feel comfortable voting for her. (Yet.) Here’s a sampling of thoughts from people who either voted for Trump and then Biden (flippers) or voted for Clinton and Biden, but are still undecided on Harris:
“I feel like I just don’t know enough about her, like, as a candidate. Yes, she’s our VP, but just like, kind of been on the side in my mind, right?” —Jessica, GA flipper
“Four years later, now I think about it, like, apart from her, like, laugh, I can’t say I even know her.“ —Sumanth, GA flipper
“I cannot tell you one thing that I can be like, ‘Oh yeah, she was a really good vice president.’ [...] “Not to even put any apples in Trump’s cart, but I can at least say that he did something. I mean, it wasn’t the best thing, but he did something.” [...] “If you think about Obama’s wife, I mean, at least she did some things. I mean, this is his wife. At least she was visible.” [...] “It’s scary to put your hope and faith in somebody who hasn't done anything.” —Michele, GA flipper
“I'm kind of like, disappointed, because I don’t see a lot of change in what [Biden] said he was going to do versus where we’re at now.” [...] “I have to dig deep more into Kamala Harris’s background.” —Cristal, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from CA
“I don’t think she was a very strong pick because of the fact that we really haven’t seen a whole lot about her. And in my world, whatever I have heard about her has been negative. Not that I’ve paid attention, you know, either way. I don't think there’s been … she’s had the opportunity to shine at all, and she’s up against Trump, who fights dirty, nasty, disgusting, it's going to be a really hard uphill battle for her.” —Jessica, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from PA
“We didn’t really get a say in, I guess, like us selecting her to run, and also, I mean, yeah, she worked alongside with Biden, and she’s great,” [Note: The tepid inflection here suggested more "she's fine."] . . . “I guess I just need to, like, know more about her and whether she’s a good representation for the Democratic party.” —Ajanta, MI Flipper
“Even as a sitting vice president, like, I don’t [know]. She's just in the background right now, like she’s the backup. She’s on the bench, essentially doing, like, a sports analogy there, like, now is her time to shine, she gets a starting role. So I gotta see what she does.” [...] “I wish that sort of happened a lot earlier, so that we would have more time to formulate an opinion and get to know her better over the course of time, because now that window’s a lot shorter.” —Drew, MI Flipper
“I think they said there’s a September debate with Trump, if that’s still on. I mean, that might be a really crucial point with those two together. How do they react? How do they interact?” —Dennis, PA Flipper
“If they could, like, give me some serious policies, show me some serious plans, then I could seriously get behind it. But right now, I just feel like they’re trying to almost manipulate me with positive energy to vote away. So I’m trying very much to not get sprinkled with the fairy dust. I’m trying to keep my eyes open, like I feel like most of my family’s like ‘it just feels so good.’ And I sometimes feel like Democrats can be emotional voters.” —Kimberly, GA Flipper
“I do think the debate will be important, just to see how she handles the most adversarial entity that she’ll ever encounter will be, will be a Donald Trump, and that does kind of show how she’ll handle general, you know, despots in the world, and so that will be extremely important.” —Jason, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from CA
The debate is Harris’s best opportunity to give voters like these a sense of who she is and what kind of president she will be.
Which is why she should focus on clearly articulating what her policy priorities will be and not letting Trump turn the debate into a circus.
People already know why they don’t like Trump. They need to figure out why they like Harris.
BUT HERE’S THE GOOD NEWS for Harris: The more voters see of her, the more they seem to like her. And it’s always been the reverse for Trump.
Voters who have taken the time to give the VP a real look have liked what they’ve seen.
“I think she’s quick-witted, she’s funny, she has a personality.” —Alex, WI flipper
“Hearing all the talk of Biden, you need to step down—I was looking at other candidates, and I was surprised in my own mind that I didn’t immediately think Kamala Harris. I mean, I was thinking [the] governor of California, and I was thinking, just other people, but when I sat back and kind of just went over her resumé, I mean, she’s very, very, very qualified,” [...] “I do believe that she has a likability that I felt like Hillary didn’t have.” —Kim, GA flipper
“It was her first moment being on the big stage, and how was she going to rise to the occasion? She had very little time to prepare for it as well. So, you know, is she the same person that she was four years ago? You know, I’m willing to say no, she’s not. She's grown into the position.” —Paul, AZ Clinton-Biden undecided voter
“She’s really good in front of the camera, she’s really good, you know, at her rallies. I think, I’m not uncomfortable when she has a sense of humor. I’m not uncomfortable, you know, that she smiles a lot and, you know, she’s personable. I’ve been doing a little bit of research on her background, you know, her education and the different offices you know that she’s worked in, she has a lot of good experience. It comes through, she comes across very intelligent.” —Christina, AZ flipper
“During Biden’s presidency, she has been very much in the background, so just seeing her highlighted and more vocal has been very promising.” —Chris, MN flipper
“She’s been energetic, seems very well spoken. But you know, I still go back to, what is her policies? So I’m a little hesitant.” —Dan, MN flipper
“She's, like, has energy. She’s willing to fight Trump,” [...] “I think she will really call him on his crap. And so that’s good.” —Elizabeth, GA flipper
“I am looking forward to seeing what she actually wants to do with several different areas, I guess, like economic policies, tax stuff, reproductive rights. But I really am definitely leaning more towards her.” [...] “It’s nice to hear a candidate who I feel like can finish a thought through from beginning to end, and actually has a point to make.” —Olivia, GA flipper
“She is definitely way more energetic than Biden, that doesn’t take a lot. It was definitely a relief to have somebody that, I mean, in respect to Biden, is young, you know, and somebody that, like, can actually keep up.” —Elizabeth, GA flipper
“I like that she behaves like an adult. She doesn’t throw tantrums and scream and pout.” [...] “I like that she is more mature and respectful in the way that she communicates. I do agree that she seems a little bit like a party head and that there’s a lot of maybe, group views that she is producing and not necessarily her own.” —Jonathan, GA flipper
“She was kind of in the background, but I mean, vice presidents typically are,” [...] “They kind of stay in the background, you know, you don’t want to upstage your boss.” [...] “I like her. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of controversy around her. She’s not a felon. I feel like she’s, you know, she’s worked her way up, she’s earned it….she doesn't seem arrogant to me or cocky, she doesn’t bully people.” —Stefanie, MI flipper
“She spoke about her roots, she spoke about where she came from. She was middle class, which I am. I would expect her to understand our struggles more than I would expect Trump to know anything about what we go through.” —Brenden, MI flipper
Every one of those voters should be gettable for Harris—because they already voted against Trump at least once. But they’re not on board yet. Harris’s first job at the debate is to bring them home and they’re saying very clearly what they want to hear from her.
The Bulwark does honest reporting and analysis. Clear-eyed and unafraid. Good or bad, we tell you what we really think. Ride out this election with us.
I’VE ALSO LISTENED to another group of people who are gettable for Harris: Trump voters who are down on Trump.
Here are some of the things they said:
“I think Kamala’s message was kind of unexpected, like her backgrounds, I wasn’t very familiar with her, like fully. So I kind of liked to learn that she comes from, like, a humble beginning, so to say.” —Sarai, NJ
“I know she is an attorney, and that she was a prosecutor, so I mean, in that respect, she’s going to have a little bit more idea of what’s right and wrong,” [...] “I’m sorry if this offends anybody, the fact that she is a woman of color and she is married to a man that is white, I think that’s going to say a lot to the American people about, you know, the non-racial crap with—that’s going on. You know, she’s obviously not racist, and that’s going to be a good thing.” [...] “I like her. I’m not a Democrat, I don’t care about the Democrats that much. But her, I would vote for simply because of the foundation she’s got under her.” —Greg, KS
“She’s a child of immigrants, so I think that’s going to help her understand both sides of the border issue, and I think that she’s going to be very good for that. And the fact that she’s a lawyer, and she reminds me a lot of Obama, just the way she carries herself, the way she speaks.” —Sheila, TX
This group will be a heavier lift, but they’re very much gettable for Harris, too.
The New York Times poll that freaked everyone out is a reminder that we’re in the persuasion part of the race. The homestretch. Vice President Harris has the opportunity to introduce herself to millions of voters tomorrow and get them comfortable with who she would be as president. She shouldn’t waste time trying to “rattle” Trump. She should speak directly to the American people and make her case for herself.
