I'm in favor of the bull case for '24 with Noah, and I think the economic sentiment lag is around 6-9 months, which puts us in a good place *on inflation* come July/August of next year when polls will actually be in a place to be more accurate. That said, I don't leave out the possibility of a recession given the bond yield inversion and…
I'm in favor of the bull case for '24 with Noah, and I think the economic sentiment lag is around 6-9 months, which puts us in a good place *on inflation* come July/August of next year when polls will actually be in a place to be more accurate. That said, I don't leave out the possibility of a recession given the bond yield inversion and the tendency for recessions to manifest *after* bond yields uninvert and the fed cuts rates. The economy was looking pretty good in 2006/2007 prior to the '08 crash and markets regained a lot of territory before losing even more mid-way through the DotCom bubble (there were two false peaks that gave way to deeper bottoms).
Economy aside, there's a bull case to be made on the political front too. People are going to forget about Israel well before next year's election. It's already winding down and I give it less than a month before it's off of America's attention span--at best becoming as important/unimportant as Ukraine is to most Americans by January 15th. People are going to remember how crazy and chaotic Trump is as he appears on TV screens and news/social media feeds more often--and in a raged/lashing out state that makes him look even more nuts as his legal troubles come into focus (listen to the last Lincoln Project pod with George Conway for more on this).
There's always the potential for black swan events to change the course of things--including ones that could be in favor of Biden rather than Trump, but if things basically continue from where we are now I'd put Biden's chances at reelection better than Trump's chances at reelection. It will *always* come down to an election of very small numbers--because 44 states have already voted and elections are determined by <100k suburban voters in about 4 states regardless of who is running, and so thinking in terms of a coin flip election isn't wrong in the big scale, but if you think of the election coming down to just <100k suburban voters in 4 states then it doesn't look like a coin flip anymore. In that case, I'd say the suburban vote in PA, WI, AZ, and GA favors Biden to the tune of something like 75/25.
That said, as JVL notes "don't tell me the odds, tell me the stakes," and the stakes are as high as they get.
And on economics, I'd argue Trump is more vulnerable than Biden if the dems could get their comms/messaging regime into gear. Hit the Trump campaign with lines like this:
"Trump got us to 14.7% unemployment because he didn't listen to his medical experts telling him to invoke the defense production act at the beginning of the pandemic to mass-produce tests so that infections wouldn't grow beyond out ability to track them via testing, which necessitated the lockdowns that every state government ultimately did, creating massive unemployment that was worse than the 2008 crisis. If Trump comes back, he will continue to ignore his experts and make any future crisis worse as a result of his winging it."
"Trump added $8 trillion dollars to the national debt via massive government spending during a hot economy he inherited from Obama, which helped create the inflation we dealt with in 2021-2022. Trump added more to the national debt in 4 years than Obama or Bush Jr did in their respective 8 years with full wartime spending going on. If Trump comes back, he will add insane amounts of big government spending to our deficit and grow the national debt beyond $40T."
"Trump tried to start a war with Iran when he assassinated their equivalent of the chairman of joint chiefs of staff, which resulted in Iran going into wartime footing and increasing the militancy of their proxies like Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. If he comes back, he'll continue to chaotically try to start a war with Iran and China that would bog us down in years of expensive international violence."
Travis, the Dems need to hire you to do their messaging! But, realistically, I'm not sanguine about them changing their comms. As the Ragin' Cajun said concerning the Dems, "Everybody wants to be in Policy, nobody wants to be in Sales."
Trump being in everyone's faces again -- and crazier than ever -- is going to shift things quite a bit. Folks are going to remember real quick exactly why they voted for Boring Old Joe.
I'm in favor of the bull case for '24 with Noah, and I think the economic sentiment lag is around 6-9 months, which puts us in a good place *on inflation* come July/August of next year when polls will actually be in a place to be more accurate. That said, I don't leave out the possibility of a recession given the bond yield inversion and the tendency for recessions to manifest *after* bond yields uninvert and the fed cuts rates. The economy was looking pretty good in 2006/2007 prior to the '08 crash and markets regained a lot of territory before losing even more mid-way through the DotCom bubble (there were two false peaks that gave way to deeper bottoms).
Economy aside, there's a bull case to be made on the political front too. People are going to forget about Israel well before next year's election. It's already winding down and I give it less than a month before it's off of America's attention span--at best becoming as important/unimportant as Ukraine is to most Americans by January 15th. People are going to remember how crazy and chaotic Trump is as he appears on TV screens and news/social media feeds more often--and in a raged/lashing out state that makes him look even more nuts as his legal troubles come into focus (listen to the last Lincoln Project pod with George Conway for more on this).
There's always the potential for black swan events to change the course of things--including ones that could be in favor of Biden rather than Trump, but if things basically continue from where we are now I'd put Biden's chances at reelection better than Trump's chances at reelection. It will *always* come down to an election of very small numbers--because 44 states have already voted and elections are determined by <100k suburban voters in about 4 states regardless of who is running, and so thinking in terms of a coin flip election isn't wrong in the big scale, but if you think of the election coming down to just <100k suburban voters in 4 states then it doesn't look like a coin flip anymore. In that case, I'd say the suburban vote in PA, WI, AZ, and GA favors Biden to the tune of something like 75/25.
That said, as JVL notes "don't tell me the odds, tell me the stakes," and the stakes are as high as they get.
I’m still holding out for the KFC option.
lol
And on economics, I'd argue Trump is more vulnerable than Biden if the dems could get their comms/messaging regime into gear. Hit the Trump campaign with lines like this:
"Trump got us to 14.7% unemployment because he didn't listen to his medical experts telling him to invoke the defense production act at the beginning of the pandemic to mass-produce tests so that infections wouldn't grow beyond out ability to track them via testing, which necessitated the lockdowns that every state government ultimately did, creating massive unemployment that was worse than the 2008 crisis. If Trump comes back, he will continue to ignore his experts and make any future crisis worse as a result of his winging it."
"Trump added $8 trillion dollars to the national debt via massive government spending during a hot economy he inherited from Obama, which helped create the inflation we dealt with in 2021-2022. Trump added more to the national debt in 4 years than Obama or Bush Jr did in their respective 8 years with full wartime spending going on. If Trump comes back, he will add insane amounts of big government spending to our deficit and grow the national debt beyond $40T."
"Trump tried to start a war with Iran when he assassinated their equivalent of the chairman of joint chiefs of staff, which resulted in Iran going into wartime footing and increasing the militancy of their proxies like Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. If he comes back, he'll continue to chaotically try to start a war with Iran and China that would bog us down in years of expensive international violence."
You’re hired!!
Travis, the Dems need to hire you to do their messaging! But, realistically, I'm not sanguine about them changing their comms. As the Ragin' Cajun said concerning the Dems, "Everybody wants to be in Policy, nobody wants to be in Sales."
Travis, I like the wolf you are feeding today!!!
Thank you, I’m taking notes.
Forkin’ YUT, Marine.
Trump being in everyone's faces again -- and crazier than ever -- is going to shift things quite a bit. Folks are going to remember real quick exactly why they voted for Boring Old Joe.