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As a nation, we have become "used to" eating out (whether fast food or a sit-down restaurant); interest rates below 4% (which was not the historical norm); fresh fruits and vegetables of every kind, year round (remember the oranges in the stocking?); cheap; cheap; cheap goods from China; instant delivery of said cheap goods or meals from before-mentioned restaurants. I could go on, but I think I have made my point that we (as a nation) have become complacent and lazy. I am pretty sure this applies to politics as well. Why read or listen to multiple news sources when you can get it in one place, and be entertained too? Let some one else do the work, and thinking, for you. Fortunately this does not apply to the Bulwark crowd, because we are all singing to the choir on this site and in the comments. Unfortunately, there are many "others" out there that vote and think the Orange Dumpster Fire is an alternative to what is wrong with our government. My husband and I try to talk to friends and acquaintances, seeking to understand first then persuade second; send copies of this newsletter and even buy subscriptions for others; contribute to campaigns; and of course, vote. But I have to admit I am getting weary of hearing people complain about how "bad" inflation is (which is code for prices higher than pre-pandemic levels -- newsflash -- they probably are never going to return to that level, and conveniently ignore the wage increases that have also occurred); how the "economy" is bad (no, it isn't); how the border is being overrun with illegals (I live in a border state and whereas the news outlets report on this problem frequently, I do not personally experience impacts). And don't get me started on abortion. I am also weary of being told we need to ACT! To DO MORE! Short of running for office (I am almost 69; not going to happen), exactly what would that look like?

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Abortion is not a magic bullet. It’s an albatross around the Republican neck that they tie tighter at every turn. Attempts to soften the position are tepid and halfhearted (or downright ridiculous, in the case of Kellyanne Conway). Election Day may well see the wind at our economic back and an incumbent on the right side if the culture war.

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founding

I don't think abortion really is about abortion. I think it's about cruelty and power and anger that other people are "getting away" with things. The women who get pregnant are whores who need to suffer the consequences for tempting men into lustful sin. Ken Paxton and the AG of Indiana are just outwardly open about this. But deep inside, where they don't want to admit it, this is the animus that animates all but a small part of the Right-to-Life idea. Given a trolley problem between saving a baby and punishing women and they'll instinctively want to pull the lever on the woman.

I go so far as to acknowledge at least some conflicted motivation. But on the whole, by their actions shall ye judge them: it's not about the fetus, it's about the whore.

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My take is that there are pro-lifers like Charlie Sykes and Mona Charen: genuinely troubled by abortion, aware of and likely uncomfortable with the restrictions on civil liberties that come with being pro-choice. It’s disappointing that they have pretty much gone to ground as the zealots and misogynists have forced through draconian laws. (Sykes’ Olympian view recently expressed to Will Saletan was awful.) It’s what comes of getting in bed with fanatics without bothering to persuade the general public of the rightness of their cause.

That being said, I’m with you. Most of them don’t give a damn about women or babies. It’s all about the meanness.

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founding

Charlie and Mona have come a long way in the last decade. Don't be too hard on anyone who cannot (pretty much by definition) see his or her blind spot. The general illumination often has to change significantly to result in recognition of what some objects in the landscape actually are. Trumpism for them was like a flare gun shot above a battlefield that unexpectedly broke through the darkness and delineated edges and angles and enemies they had not previously been able to distinguish.

I recall Mona's opinion stuff from the Reagan years and don't recall any awareness of the racism embraced by their takes on affirmative action, the welfare queen story, and so forth. But of course in their own sincere perception they weren't racist themselves. The welfare queen story wasn't a dog whistle, it was a valid concern about crime and government being open to fraud. Affirmative action wasn't an effort to unskew the societal playing field, it was patent unfairness to white people. Being against public assistance programs is not about wanting to not pay taxes, it's about ensuring that idle people don't fall into the trap of dependency...

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founding

It is encouraging that there are in fact pro-lifers like Mona and Charlie (and a handful of others of my own acquaintance) who are truly pro-life, meaning pro-human.

It is discouraging that all of them together in America, assembled at a basketball game, would hardly be audible against the din of hatred and cruelty emitted by the anti-human "pro" lifers.

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Don’t get me wrong: I’m not particularly impressed with the Monas and Charlies. They aligned themselves with genuinely awful people by convincing themselves that a greater good was at stake, but never bothered to convince (or even try very hard to convince) the public of the rightness of their position. They wanted to deny people what they had: Choice.

Even now, they have curled up in a ball and not confronted the Dan Patricks of the world.—Charlie’s contention that the Texas case raises legitimate questions completely ducks the real issue. Charen’s column of a couple of months ago in which she urged pro-lifers to support day care was clueless and had zero credibility.

Nonetheless, it’s useful to get a detailed picture of the terrain,and some good might come of getting the Mona/Charlie faction to speak. At the very least, I’d like to know where they actually stand on this horror show in Texas.

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founding
Dec 19, 2023·edited Dec 19, 2023

I believe this week Texas came up and the consensus was that Ken Paxton personally is pretty much in the top rank of deplorables. as ever trod the stage of American politics.

If as a pro-life sympathizer, you have spent your formative years convincing yourself that the cause you are championing is entirely about protecting the innocent, and that abortion except in very very rare instances is actually just selfish people wantonly terminating pregnancies they have been too lazy to prevent through self control -- especially since championing that cause has been essential to your career success -- well, that's a pretty deep epistemological hole to climb out of.

Blind spots are everywhere.

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founding
Dec 18, 2023·edited Dec 18, 2023

When America has reached the point where supposed adults stand up in public and complain, with a deep sense of outrage at having been personally deprived and aggrieved because somehow having a multi-course restaurant meal for three or more diners (a menu including steak salad, lobster tails, sirloin steak, and a chicken sandwich tip delivered) costs an extravagant amount of money --

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1735098330307289352?

Time to throw in the towel and agree that inflation is so far out of control that the nation and the society has crossed the event horizon and is doomed to destruction. But it's not price inflation that's the problem. It's self-pity inflation. It's self-indulgence inflation. It's horrible judgment inflation. Above all, it's inflation of blame-anyone-and-everything-except-ourselves for the consequences of our stupid choices.

Mona and the gang bemoan America's retreat from world leadership, and I used to think they are right. But no longer. We are in the final stages of dissolving our Republic into a one-party klepto-dictatorship because we are having hissy fits about how put upon we are because we want cheap lobster tails delivered to our doorstep -- as well as instant access to every other gilded object of no value placed in our way to distract and enslave us.

A nation and society that voluntarily, of its own entirely free choice, exchanges liberty and the rule of law for dictatorship and the pleasure of wallowing in self-pity does not deserve to lead a dog around the block, much less the world.

The Greeks accounted for the evils and afflictions of the human condition to helplessness against the cruelties and whims of the gods. Thus while ineluctable, the misery was at least not ignoble; it is tragic, and thereby merits compassion and pity.

We on the other hand deserve what's coming, because we ARE the gods. We're doing it all by and to ourselves. Tragedy? Pity? Hah!

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For many of us, it’s difficult to accept the news that inflation is under control when we still experience higher prices for everything. But there’s another important factor that we need to amplify: GREED! Apparently many corporations are testing consumer tolerance of high prices (and their higher profits!!) rather than bringing prices back in line with current costs. Check out this investigative article from NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/business/economy/profit-margins-inflation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.FE0.s-4q._u3IYE4tGr29&hpgrp=ar-abar&smid=url-share.

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Agree…it’s a lot about the greed. The prices of many things skyrocketed when we were in pandemic mode and it felt great to make a ton of money. So why change?? In California, gas prices are $1-3 more than in neighboring states! Car prices are higher, food prices even higher… it’s just greed. Love my state but for many the blame is on the current administration, state and national They are single issue voters. And many only listen to right wing media and these voters don’t believe J6, Jack Smith, Liz and the like are anything but witch hunters. How do we get them to open their eyes when they believe they see clearly???

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The fundamental problem is the Republican party, from the least-engaged member of the base to senior party leadership. There may be some in that group who don't actively support authoritarian rule, but they will support those who do. The only way to salvage the party is to defeat it in election after election. That will eventually give Republicans who value democracy enough ammunition to push the authoritarians from the party.

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I agree with you, but sometimes it's hard not to want to give up and just let Republicans have their way so they can see just what another trump term will be like. And it will be worse. Except the way these people are acting, they could be sitting underneath an outhouse, and if trump told them their life is better, they'd believe it. And if he told them the shit falling on them wasn't his fault, they'd believe him. But that's the cynical side of me. Too bad they keep proving me right.

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The Republican Party is running like a megachurch and a criminal, terrorist one at that. Once voters recognize that Trump is playing Jimmy Swaggert, their beliefs will hit bottom.

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founding

Well reasoned article. This situation is just so surreal and tense. I am glad to be a Bulwark member. Keep up the good work.

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As long as “generic Democrat” out-polls Trump, Biden will win. Much of the uninformed electorate thinks if they wish hard enough, they can get a candidate that’s not Biden or Trump. When they realize, around Labor Day 2024, that they will not get their wish, they will reluctantly vote for the generic Democrat, who will be Joe Biden, (unless God intervenes.). Trump, for all his bluster, has a hard feeling of about 40-45 % and likely lower if he is convicted. You can’t win with that ceiling.

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He won with 46.1%

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He lost to Biden with 47.7 %. He will have a hard time getting over 45% in 2024, especially if he is convicted.

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Yes. But 45% could be enough. He's in the range where, with help from spoiler candidates in the right states, he could win again. With the intensity of support among true believers, and the greater preparations to get over guardrails in the process, he feels in some ways stronger now than at this point in either preceding cycle.

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Love me some Run DMC! Old skool is the way to go. But I'd never heard the Ariana song-and it was...pretty good! I'm torn.

(as an aside-not that it matters-I'm a 67 yo white woman from the midwest.)

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JVL - any chance of throwing up an image of the bracket of the Christmas songs, so we know where we're at in the tourney?

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founding

The podcast with Noah Smith was one of your best of the year.A few days ago I wrote a pushback regarding the negativity of Biden in 2024. We have basically achieved the soft landing (lowering inflation thru higher interest rates resulting in no recession).Voters perceptions are a lagging indicator on the economy and that has always been the case thru history as Noah points out. Here is another point that should bring positive "vibes". In 1983 Reagan's approval rating was 35 %.In 1984 he won 49 states.In 1988,at one point Dukakis was up by 15 points.Does anybody remember President Dukakis? At one time Perot led in 1992. Gore once led W.Bush in 2000. Hillary led Obama (early Dem.Primaries) by double digits. Romney once led Obama in 2012.And of course Hillary led Trump all the way till election day. So keep that history in mind.Don't despair.And remember the words of that great philosopher Yogi Berra;"it ain't over til it s over".

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I am waiting for Biden to authorize a hitman for his political opponents and then claim presidential immunity. Maybe also take out a few Supreme Court justices and replace them also. Maybe impeachable actions, but not criminally prosecutable according to Trump and his supporters.

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You think trump thought about how presidential immunity could work against him? Probably something he shouldn't advocate for not being president and all. It's such a ridiculous claim no sane person would even consider it. Oh, silly me.

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"Until Trump, such people either didn’t know that they wanted to abandon liberalism, or they did know, but didn’t think it was possible. They thought that the guardrails would never let them get what they wanted. Trump showed these people what was possible."

That's technically true, but this was neither a plan or an action on Trump's part. He just "fell into it," while his many equally self-centered helpers did all the heavy lifting. All he had to do was sit back an feed his instant gratification as usual. One of the "guardrails" that kept this from happening before was that different factions of "illiberal" voters, e.g. evangelicals and "secular" authoritarians had different priorities - until talk radio hosts got them to speak the same paranoid language, and later to unite behind a common "savior." Thus all of the parts were in place before Trump walked down the escalator in 2015. They just naturally aligned because Trump and his helpers gladly did nothing to prevent it. The few who tried soon found themselves outnumbered.

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The 2020-2022 Pandemic economically upset the world especially the USA. Biden was ready for retirement but he answered the call and saved America from the chaos of Trump. Biden will be reelected based on the economic recovery and the landslide Democratic vote of suburban woman regarding the abortion issue.

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founding

Love this take but terrified the opposite will happen. Maybe I've been watching to many apocalyptic movies lately.

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founding

or listening to pundits

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Or those uninformed people listening to Fox news.

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As Argyle would say: “This IS Christmas music!’

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It’s funny that Die Hard is now a classic Christmas movie but it so is…classic like Christmas in Hollis!

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I'm concerned what will happen even if Biden wins. He will not win by a lot of he does, which will open the door to claims of a stolen election once again. This needs to be thought through and preparations for different scenarios put in place since the response may well be much worse than last time.

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Dec 17, 2023·edited Dec 17, 2023

What if this summer is scorching everywhere, with risks of crop failures due to drought, and the impacts of climate inaction from 1980 - 2020 really -- and I mean **really** finally turning the focus on the GOP enablers in the US political system? Should this happen, the topic of Dark Money, given us by the Roberts SCOTUS, is going to gain a whole new resonance even for low info voters.

Although it is true that pundits tend to look to markets, Biden is the *only* elected to act significantly on climate change, and he may be the only elected with enough skill to keep pushing for sensible responses to increasing risks. (The GOP thinks in linear terms, but climate is exponential. The GOP is not at all equipped intellectually, financially, socially, or demographically to deal with the interrelated issues of climate, migration, and Dark Money. It's the job of the Dems to help people grasp the interactions.)

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I don't disagree with what you say, but I don't think the next summer will be substantially hotter (I subscribe to the frog boiling metaphor) or that Biden will get his due credit (when has he?).

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