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Donald C Bingaman's avatar

As long as “generic Democrat” out-polls Trump, Biden will win. Much of the uninformed electorate thinks if they wish hard enough, they can get a candidate that’s not Biden or Trump. When they realize, around Labor Day 2024, that they will not get their wish, they will reluctantly vote for the generic Democrat, who will be Joe Biden, (unless God intervenes.). Trump, for all his bluster, has a hard feeling of about 40-45 % and likely lower if he is convicted. You can’t win with that ceiling.

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E2's avatar

He won with 46.1%

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Donald C Bingaman's avatar

He lost to Biden with 47.7 %. He will have a hard time getting over 45% in 2024, especially if he is convicted.

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E2's avatar

Yes. But 45% could be enough. He's in the range where, with help from spoiler candidates in the right states, he could win again. With the intensity of support among true believers, and the greater preparations to get over guardrails in the process, he feels in some ways stronger now than at this point in either preceding cycle.

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