
Itās a Festivus Miracle!
Come hang out with me, Bill Kristol, Ted Johnson, Mona Charen, and Tim Miller for our annual holiday show. Itāll be fun and cathartic. Predictions will be made. Grievances will be aired.
Tonight, Thursday, at 8:00 pm in the East. Right here.
Only for members of Bulwark+.
(You should treat yourself if youāre not.)
1. The Big Tease
I am begging you to read Amanda Carpenterās article about Ron DeSantisās latest piece of performative governing. Itās fantastic.
Short version: DeSantis made a series of announcements this week about how heās going to go after the Deep Science Big Elites or whatever by:
Seeking a grand jury to potentially prosecute the manufacturers of COVID vaccines.
Investigating ācardiac-related deathsā linked to COVID vaccines.
Standing up a āPublic Health Integrity Committeeā to oversee the medical establishment.
In a minute weāll talk about the merits of these ideas. But letās start with the fact that none of these proposals will amount to anything. Which is perfectly in line with the DeSantis modus operandi: big, performative, shit-stirring uses of government powerāthat are quickly (and quietly) walked back, overturned, or abandoned.
Remember the Stop WOKE Act? It was DeSantisās big anti-CRT-in-schools legislation. (This was back when CRT was the most important issue facing the republic.) It was stopped by the courts because it is flatly and obviously unconstitutional.
Remember when DeSantis punished Disney for opposing his Donāt Say Gay law by revoking the companyās Reedy Creek special tax district? Yeah, thatās going by the wayside because it wasnāt thought out and would wind up costing Florida taxpayers money. The face-saving climbdown spin seems to be that DeSantis is reconsidering because Disney has changed CEOs and it was the old CEO whom he wanted to punish.1
And how about DeSantisās mass āvoter fraudā arrests, which managed to round up a bunch of people who donāt look like they live in the Villages on trumped-up voter-fraud charges? Yeah, those cases are falling apart in court because they had no basis in law.
Ohāand donāt forget the DeSantis promise to ship immigrants out of Florida after his stunt sending asylum seekers from Texas to Marthaās Vineyard blew up in his face.
This is what he does. And his anti-vaccine programs are no different.
No vaccine maker will be prosecuted in Florida.
There will be no peer-reviewed research showing that the risks of vaccine side effects were greater than the benefits.
A āPublic Health Integrity Committeeā will not interfere with the practice of medicine in Florida.
And thatās by design.
The impracticability of DeSantisās abuses of power are a win-win situation for him with Republican voters. Theyāre the governing version of shitposting.
The MAGA nationalists get stroked by them. And by the time the abuse of power is countered, DeSantis has given them a tease in some other erogenous zone. Heās edging the MAGAs and they are into it.
As for Team Normal, they look at his abuses of power and say,
āSee? Nothing ever comes of it. The system holds. The guardrails work. And he probably doesnāt even mean it. Heās just doing this performative stuff for the rubes. If anything, these performances are good because theyāre helping him detach the base from Trump!ā
Might DeSantis actually mean it? Or, if he doesnāt mean it now, is it possible that humans are mimetic creatures and the principle of fake-it-until-you-make can be true for both good and evil?
These concerns are dismissed out of hand.
Gotta support the team, bruh.
I do not and have not ever had a team. Iām not a joiner. I find the team aspect of politics at best corrupting and at worst dangerous. I despise people who will not tell you what they really think because they are working on a convoluted triple bank-shot in the hopes of helping their side.
We donāt do any of that at The Bulwark. We just say the thing. In part because thatās what people should do. But also because not saying what you really think is how we got onto this crummy timeline. Weācollectivelyāindulged too many bad actors because they were on āour sideāāwhichever side that was.
The DeSantis stuff especially grinds my gears because heās not shitposting on Twitterāheās using the awesome power of the state to hurt real people. The alleged vote fraudsters? These were actual human beings with jobs and families. The asylum seekers from Venezuela he tricked into going to Marthaās Vineyard? Theyāre folks who braved unimaginable horrors to escape an ugly dictatorship.
And the COVID stuff? My God: More than a million Americans died from it. People still die from it every day. And DeSantis is playing games with this disease.
We donāt play games at The Bulwark. Come join us. Be real. Be serious. Be true.
2. Vaccines Are a Damned Miracle
One of the things I said all through the pandemic was that our official COVID death totals were only approximations and that weād need forensic epidemiology looking at excess deaths to get a real handle on the number. The early evidence from Italy was not great.
Well, a group of researchers have published over at Nature with the first stab at a true count.
Want to guess? Because it is also not great.
Officially, we have 5.42 million global deaths from COVID. This study puts the number closer to 15 million.
15 million.
Now look: This is a statistical analysis and not a forensic hand count.2 But even so, the excess death number tracks pretty reasonably over time with the course of the pandemic:
And also: The excess deaths are not distributed evenly across the globe. This figure shows that in America, for instance, the excess death numbers are relatively modest;3 in India and Russia, theyāre staggering.
One other piece of COVID research from this week: The Commonwealth Fund has tried to figure out how many lives have been saved (so far) by the COVID vaccines.
In the United States, our reported COVID death totalāthe official one, not accounting for excess deathsāis 1,080,472. The Commonwealth Fundās analysis suggests that vaccines prevented 3.2 million additional deaths.
Understand: This is dogs-that-didnāt-bark stuff. There is no way to know, with epistemological certainty, that the vaccines saved the lives of 3.2 million Americans. Weāre talking about an initial best guess based on statistical modeling. Maybe the vaccines actually saved 5 million livesāor only saved 1 million lives.
The point is that the answer is not 17. No matter who you are, at least one person you know is alive today because of the COVID vaccines. And unless you are exceedingly unfortunate, no one you know died from the COVID vaccine, because the side effects are so manageable that we only have 17,868 preliminaryānot confirmed, but preliminaryāreports of deaths stemming from the vaccines.4
Contrary to Dr. Gov. Ron DeSantis, adverse effects from the COVID vaccines have been well documented. They are real. They are also quite rare and in all but a tiny, sliver of a fraction of cases, they are mild.
On the other hand, COVID still kills about 450 Americans per day. Disproportionately, these deaths are among people who are not fully vaccinated.
Ron DeSantis doesnāt give a crap about that. He doesnāt care if his stunt convinces people not to get vaccinated.
Because DeSantis has a theory about the Republican electorate: He believes that Republican voters do not care whether or not a politician makes their lives better in any meaningful way. What they want is a politician who will punish their enemies.
And Ron DeSantis is hurting the people he needs to be hurting.
Which is what this anti-vaccine nonsense is all about.
Long-time readers will remember that The Bulwark was . . . critical of much of President Trumpās handling of the COVID pandemic.
There was one aspect on which we praised him contemporaneously: Operation Warp Speed. Trump did a good thing in making sure that the vaccine task force included pharmaceutical companies as full partners and didnāt overload the project with academics. Having voices from inside the industry as stakeholders in the task force is partly why the vaccines were developed and manufactured so quickly.
How f*#!ed up is it that one of the few unambiguously good things Trump accomplished is now a political liability for him in the Republican primary?
3. Hadestown
I saw it again last night for the second time in a week and itās a beautiful, gossamer creation. If you havenāt seen it, go when the tour comes your way. In the meantime, enjoy this Tiny Desk Concert with the original cast. If you click through, itāll start you with Orpheus meeting Eurydice.
If you want to jump straight to āWhy We Build the Wallā click here. If you havenāt heard Patrick Page before, prepare yourself.
If true, isnāt that an even worse abuse of government power? Going after a private company purely because you want them to replace one of their workers?
Which isnāt possible globally, but will probably eventually be done in the United States.
By ārelativelyā I mean that this study thinks the true number of COVID deaths in America is less than 2x the current reported number.
For some context about what āpreliminaryā means here in regards to the 17,868 number:
"FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if itās unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. More than 657 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through December 7, 2022. During this time, VAERS received 17,868 preliminary reports of death (0.0027%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA clinicians review reports of death to VAERS including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records. Continued monitoring has identified nine deaths causally associated with J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccination. CDC and FDA continue to review reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination and update information as it becomes available."
DeSantis is doing what the base wants him to do, which is exactly what an aspiring presidential candidate from MAGA land should do. The real question is as follows:
"Should a politician do what his constituency wants, regardless of whether or not what the constituency wants is actually good for them or objectively true, or should a politician act in opposition to his or her constituency when he/she feels they are believing the wrong things?"
The MAGA base feels that the answer is that the politician should do whatever the constituency wants--regardless of whether or not it actually ends up benefiting that constituency or is grounded in objective truth.
Liberals and center-right folks believe that the politician should do what's in the best interest of everyone, regardless of the constituency's views on a subject.
DeSantis is a MAGA politician who is following (not leading) a MAGA base. He will do what the base wants rather than what's actually good for them, because that is what the politics of populism demands. In a conservative world where the MAGA base spent the last 7 years rejecting the old-school conservative elites, appeasing the base is a matter of political survival for a politician, and if that politician isn't willing to toe the MAGA base line, they will fire that politician and put someone crazier in his/her place. This is the nature of the relationship between the conservative base and conservative politicians since the year of our lord 2014. It hasn't changed, and has only mostly gotten worse.
How screwed up is it that DeSantis is being touted as the "good" alternative to Trump? DeSantis is a pompous, humorless, little dough boy with no personality. He's a cruel authoritarian who thinks frowning adds six inches to his frame. Everytime I see his name I flash to him stamping around in his white boots looking like an idiot. He reminds me of the arrogant short king voiced by John Lithgow in the animated movied Shrek. Shame on anyone who supports DeSantis.