Which outcome do you think is the better way to save our country from its current existential peril:
A) Democrats never lose an election ever for the rest of time; or
B) The Republicans regain some semblance of sanity and commitment to democracy?
Personally, I find strategy A to not really be an effective solution, because a single badly timed recession or scandal can derail it, and even if they pull it off it still might not work - an insurgency can take over a country without actually winning any elections after all. I will grant that ultimately it is on Republicans and not Democrats to make strategy B happen, and yet by promoting Gibbs over Meijer Dems are actively sabotaging strategy B. Short sighted at best.
C. Dems win HARD, the Republicans collapse, and are replaced by whatever is next. Bring on the 7th party system.
A sane Republican party is a unicorn at this point. The foundation is rotted, and the right has spent decades catering to the worst impulses of their base. What's left to salvage but nostalgia at this point? GOP delenda est.
One of the good features of the two party system that people forget: Hypermajorities always break into faction or give rise to a new challenger. the fall of the Fedralists made space for the Whigs, just as the Whigs demise proved fertile (and free) soil for the growth of the GOP.
This is a false choice. When have we seen signs of the Republicans gaining some semblance of "sanity?" Or a commitment to democracy? The signs are all in the opposite direction at the moment.
Neither strategy is a good strategy. Neither is actually a strategy, TBH. These fall more under the heading of "I hope" (in both cases depending upon where you stand).
At some point the GoP is likely to regain control. Regaining control (and what they do with it afterwards) is what is going to make or break the GoP.
In the worst case, they regain control, turn authoritarian, rig elections, run rampant with corruption (especially if Trump and his bunch are still around), turn non-whites and non-straights, and non-Christians into second class citizens.... and people put up with it for several years before things blow up. At which point the current GoP will be effectively destroyed--the problem being that they destroyed the country in the process.
Best case--kind of similar to the worst case, but a little less visibly authoritarian and a little less open about non-whites (and other-ly gendered) being second class citizens. A bit more subtle about using the coercive power of government (and calling it freedom and liberty).
The GoP survives in the second case and a crappy status quo that is more crappy than what we currently have continues. Wealth disparity will continue to skyrocket (because that is kind of the point--that is what the rich people behind this are after) and the National-Christian-Conservative movement will continue to try and regulate people's morality and sexuality and personal behavior. LOTs of people will get "canceled."
And people will put up with it, probably for a long period of time (years, maybe even decades) until some geopolitical event (or climate collapse) puts paid to it.
The first is much messier and violent in the short term.
The second is messier and more violent over the long term--but for the initial stages it will only be those "other people" that are taking it in the shorts.
The GoP will return to "sanity" only through the collapse of their own efforts through their success in getting power (and trying to do what they say they want to do) or through being soundly trashed and losing power in something approaching the "normal" political process.
They are very unlikely to lose significant power through the normal political process, given how this country works. The Dems are always 1 election away from getting thrown out... and each election until the GoP regains control will be fraught with all of the issues we face now (only increasingly worse over time).
Our politics need restructuring badly, but the only people capable of doing it are unwilling to do so because they are the beneficiaries of the current system.
The whole fraud thing would be a moot point in most cases without the EC. It would be VERY hard to commit fraud on a level that overcomes a 3-7 million vote deficit and get away with it in a popular election.
There are a number of other steps that could reduce political extremism.
Corporations and the rich could be better citizens. Voters could become better voters.
But none of those things are going to happen and so we will get the slow rolling disaster, instead--because it is easier to enjoy the current benefits and kick that can down the road.
"B) The Republicans regain some semblance of sanity and commitment to democracy?"
I have yet to see any evidence that electing Meijer would do anything to bring this about. This far, the closest I've seen is JVL's argument that if a disaster happens, you want to be absolutely certain you have people on hand who will do the right thing. But a look at his record before and after those three weeks in January do not suggest a man who is a profile in courage. How is anyone sure he would have come through if it happens again?
Meanwhile, I know for a fact Meijer would have acted to damage sanity and commitment to democracy in a manner at least as dangerous. Every vote for Kevin McCarthy as Speaker is a vote for letting the nuts within the party free to hold their own evidence-free "election fraud hearings" over the next two years.
If my only two choices are stage 4 cancer or Covid, I guess I'll take the Covid, but I'm not going to pretend it's a beneficial choice, and if "not suffering from a horrible disease comes up," I'm going to go for that.
You are attributing too much responsibility on the democrats for Meijer losing, and to “fix” the Republican Party. Republican voters are the issue here, and they have to be the ones who have to fix themselves. Short term, beating the crap out of them electorally is the quickest way to get them to reconsider sanity and democratic norms. But when up against authoritarians, you HAVE to think short term, and take actions that maximize positive potential outcomes. The nature of authoritarianism makes long term planning difficult. But back to the issue with Michigan-3! With abortion being on the ballot in Michigan this year, a radical election denying MAGA lunatic is very unlikely to win a Biden +8 district. This is a house seat with will flip to us, very much increasing our chances of keeping the house. A democrat flipping a house seat is a much much better outcome than a “moderate” republican whose been abandoned by his party, keeping it. Democrats really didn’t sabotage option B, you’re just upset at the cynicism that must be considered when fighting against authoritarianism.
It would be redundant for me to add to this comment thread, because Casey, Charles, and Catie have said it so well. I will just quote one of them: "...the only way the Republican Party gains some semblance of sanity is for them to lose and lose and keep on losing (likely for several election cycles.). It's the only lesson that will teach them."
I think the only way the Republican party gains some semblance of sanity is for them to lose and lose and keep on losing (likely for several election cycles). It's the only lesson that will teach them.
Eventually the cowards who are going along to get along will get tired of losing and finally stand up to the craziness. Then they can start rebuilding.
My "ill-framed" question was meant to remind the comment section that winning races is not the ultimate goal here, and if it comes at the cost of further radicalizing the Republicans then it's not worth it.
Republicans have shown that they cannot govern without Dems leading the way, and furthermore unless the Dems have an effective check on their power, the present GOP welcomes authoritarianism. Winning races may not be the ultimate goal, but it is definitely the goal for the next few cycles.
Which outcome do you think is the better way to save our country from its current existential peril:
A) Democrats never lose an election ever for the rest of time; or
B) The Republicans regain some semblance of sanity and commitment to democracy?
Personally, I find strategy A to not really be an effective solution, because a single badly timed recession or scandal can derail it, and even if they pull it off it still might not work - an insurgency can take over a country without actually winning any elections after all. I will grant that ultimately it is on Republicans and not Democrats to make strategy B happen, and yet by promoting Gibbs over Meijer Dems are actively sabotaging strategy B. Short sighted at best.
C. Dems win HARD, the Republicans collapse, and are replaced by whatever is next. Bring on the 7th party system.
A sane Republican party is a unicorn at this point. The foundation is rotted, and the right has spent decades catering to the worst impulses of their base. What's left to salvage but nostalgia at this point? GOP delenda est.
One of the good features of the two party system that people forget: Hypermajorities always break into faction or give rise to a new challenger. the fall of the Fedralists made space for the Whigs, just as the Whigs demise proved fertile (and free) soil for the growth of the GOP.
How are those the only two choices? Especially when the first is framed in all or nothing terms, and the second is nuanced?
This is a false choice. When have we seen signs of the Republicans gaining some semblance of "sanity?" Or a commitment to democracy? The signs are all in the opposite direction at the moment.
Neither strategy is a good strategy. Neither is actually a strategy, TBH. These fall more under the heading of "I hope" (in both cases depending upon where you stand).
At some point the GoP is likely to regain control. Regaining control (and what they do with it afterwards) is what is going to make or break the GoP.
In the worst case, they regain control, turn authoritarian, rig elections, run rampant with corruption (especially if Trump and his bunch are still around), turn non-whites and non-straights, and non-Christians into second class citizens.... and people put up with it for several years before things blow up. At which point the current GoP will be effectively destroyed--the problem being that they destroyed the country in the process.
Best case--kind of similar to the worst case, but a little less visibly authoritarian and a little less open about non-whites (and other-ly gendered) being second class citizens. A bit more subtle about using the coercive power of government (and calling it freedom and liberty).
The GoP survives in the second case and a crappy status quo that is more crappy than what we currently have continues. Wealth disparity will continue to skyrocket (because that is kind of the point--that is what the rich people behind this are after) and the National-Christian-Conservative movement will continue to try and regulate people's morality and sexuality and personal behavior. LOTs of people will get "canceled."
And people will put up with it, probably for a long period of time (years, maybe even decades) until some geopolitical event (or climate collapse) puts paid to it.
The first is much messier and violent in the short term.
The second is messier and more violent over the long term--but for the initial stages it will only be those "other people" that are taking it in the shorts.
The GoP will return to "sanity" only through the collapse of their own efforts through their success in getting power (and trying to do what they say they want to do) or through being soundly trashed and losing power in something approaching the "normal" political process.
They are very unlikely to lose significant power through the normal political process, given how this country works. The Dems are always 1 election away from getting thrown out... and each election until the GoP regains control will be fraught with all of the issues we face now (only increasingly worse over time).
Our politics need restructuring badly, but the only people capable of doing it are unwilling to do so because they are the beneficiaries of the current system.
The whole fraud thing would be a moot point in most cases without the EC. It would be VERY hard to commit fraud on a level that overcomes a 3-7 million vote deficit and get away with it in a popular election.
There are a number of other steps that could reduce political extremism.
Corporations and the rich could be better citizens. Voters could become better voters.
But none of those things are going to happen and so we will get the slow rolling disaster, instead--because it is easier to enjoy the current benefits and kick that can down the road.
"B) The Republicans regain some semblance of sanity and commitment to democracy?"
I have yet to see any evidence that electing Meijer would do anything to bring this about. This far, the closest I've seen is JVL's argument that if a disaster happens, you want to be absolutely certain you have people on hand who will do the right thing. But a look at his record before and after those three weeks in January do not suggest a man who is a profile in courage. How is anyone sure he would have come through if it happens again?
Meanwhile, I know for a fact Meijer would have acted to damage sanity and commitment to democracy in a manner at least as dangerous. Every vote for Kevin McCarthy as Speaker is a vote for letting the nuts within the party free to hold their own evidence-free "election fraud hearings" over the next two years.
If my only two choices are stage 4 cancer or Covid, I guess I'll take the Covid, but I'm not going to pretend it's a beneficial choice, and if "not suffering from a horrible disease comes up," I'm going to go for that.
You are attributing too much responsibility on the democrats for Meijer losing, and to “fix” the Republican Party. Republican voters are the issue here, and they have to be the ones who have to fix themselves. Short term, beating the crap out of them electorally is the quickest way to get them to reconsider sanity and democratic norms. But when up against authoritarians, you HAVE to think short term, and take actions that maximize positive potential outcomes. The nature of authoritarianism makes long term planning difficult. But back to the issue with Michigan-3! With abortion being on the ballot in Michigan this year, a radical election denying MAGA lunatic is very unlikely to win a Biden +8 district. This is a house seat with will flip to us, very much increasing our chances of keeping the house. A democrat flipping a house seat is a much much better outcome than a “moderate” republican whose been abandoned by his party, keeping it. Democrats really didn’t sabotage option B, you’re just upset at the cynicism that must be considered when fighting against authoritarianism.
It would be redundant for me to add to this comment thread, because Casey, Charles, and Catie have said it so well. I will just quote one of them: "...the only way the Republican Party gains some semblance of sanity is for them to lose and lose and keep on losing (likely for several election cycles.). It's the only lesson that will teach them."
I think the only way the Republican party gains some semblance of sanity is for them to lose and lose and keep on losing (likely for several election cycles). It's the only lesson that will teach them.
Amen.
It may take a generation for the insanity to be erased, as Trump devotees die off.
Exactly. @Mingus Khan sets up a false choice above. The actual path is the Dems win for the next six to eight cycles until the Rs return to sanity.
And how will they return to sanity when there is no one left in their party who is sane?
Eventually the cowards who are going along to get along will get tired of losing and finally stand up to the craziness. Then they can start rebuilding.
Then what was the point of your ill-framed question in the first place?
My "ill-framed" question was meant to remind the comment section that winning races is not the ultimate goal here, and if it comes at the cost of further radicalizing the Republicans then it's not worth it.
Republicans have shown that they cannot govern without Dems leading the way, and furthermore unless the Dems have an effective check on their power, the present GOP welcomes authoritarianism. Winning races may not be the ultimate goal, but it is definitely the goal for the next few cycles.
By losing so many times that they have to resign themselves to keep losing or back off their extremely toxic policy positions.
If they're too detached from reality to do that, they deserve to keep losing.