I was reading a bit of commentary on Talking Points Memo today about how Trump's Iowa showing was remarkably weak. At first I thought, oh this is some Grade-A Copium - the guy won a flat majority of the vote, come on. Then I started thinking more about what this result really shows.
Trump has a death grip on enough of the GOP electorate t…
I was reading a bit of commentary on Talking Points Memo today about how Trump's Iowa showing was remarkably weak. At first I thought, oh this is some Grade-A Copium - the guy won a flat majority of the vote, come on. Then I started thinking more about what this result really shows.
Trump has a death grip on enough of the GOP electorate that he is inevitable so long as he is running. But that's just it - it's only Enough of the GOP electorate. It is not Enough of The Electorate in total. The more he is denied, the crazier he gets. The crazier he gets, the more the broad middle is turned off. The more dangerous he appears, the less even the far left can justify staying home or opting out of electoral politics unless they've descended into outright accelerationism. And in the meantime, his antics return to visibility from the MAGA Shadow Realm they've been banished to since 2021. The vast majority of voters are still not engaged enough to be paying attention to exactly what he's saying and doing, only the terminally engaged are fully caught up on the madness.
So, keeping that in mind... 51% was really the best he could do? Against a malfunctioning android in lifts? Against a human see-saw who can't manage to blurt out that slavery was the cause of the civil war in a state so northern it literally borders Canada? Against a twerp so odious he managed to piss off literally everyone in a party that views being a dickhead as a value add? He still couldn't run up the score!
So yes, I'm alarmed but not worried, because through this lens it really is a remarkably weak performance. If Trump still truly had it, he would have been able to big dog the GOP into canceling the primaries outright, or put in a performance so dominant his challengers would be fighting each other with knives just to grab the largest share of the single digit non-Trump vote possible. That's not happening. He's going to win the nomination, but then he NEEDS partisan polarization to do his heavy lifting - and he can't help himself from declaring his fascist intent so that's more of an uphill battle than ever.
A defeated former president has not tried this return in the modern primary era! It really ain’t that great, and there is nothing to which you can compare a one-state result.
The choice in November won't be between Trump and two other Republicans. It will be Trump and a Dem. He'll get much better than "51%" of the Republican vote and no little percentage of people registered or nominally Democrats. A plurality nationally, probably not. In the right states? Maybe.
This is all correct imo. However, what is scary isn’t that Trump is running it’s that so many Americans (45-47%) think any of this is qualifying to be president. That is what scares me.
I know the election will be close electorally. I know Biden will win the popular vote by more than 7m votes. The idea that there is a chance he could be president just utterly bewilders me.
Right? I read so many think pieces about how thoroughly Trumpism has captured the Iowan evangelical cohort in the leadup to this caucus. I was expecting a 75-80% romp, not a showing where DeSantis not only cracked double digits but hit 20%. The MAGA brainrot is real, and it is terminal, but it remains confined to a recognizable minority that can be outflanked and defeated decisively.
If you add up trump's and DeSantis's votes, you do get to that 75%. Several prominent evangelical leaders supported DeSantis in Iowa. When he drops out, the evangelical vote will go entirely to trump.
I was reading a bit of commentary on Talking Points Memo today about how Trump's Iowa showing was remarkably weak. At first I thought, oh this is some Grade-A Copium - the guy won a flat majority of the vote, come on. Then I started thinking more about what this result really shows.
Trump has a death grip on enough of the GOP electorate that he is inevitable so long as he is running. But that's just it - it's only Enough of the GOP electorate. It is not Enough of The Electorate in total. The more he is denied, the crazier he gets. The crazier he gets, the more the broad middle is turned off. The more dangerous he appears, the less even the far left can justify staying home or opting out of electoral politics unless they've descended into outright accelerationism. And in the meantime, his antics return to visibility from the MAGA Shadow Realm they've been banished to since 2021. The vast majority of voters are still not engaged enough to be paying attention to exactly what he's saying and doing, only the terminally engaged are fully caught up on the madness.
So, keeping that in mind... 51% was really the best he could do? Against a malfunctioning android in lifts? Against a human see-saw who can't manage to blurt out that slavery was the cause of the civil war in a state so northern it literally borders Canada? Against a twerp so odious he managed to piss off literally everyone in a party that views being a dickhead as a value add? He still couldn't run up the score!
So yes, I'm alarmed but not worried, because through this lens it really is a remarkably weak performance. If Trump still truly had it, he would have been able to big dog the GOP into canceling the primaries outright, or put in a performance so dominant his challengers would be fighting each other with knives just to grab the largest share of the single digit non-Trump vote possible. That's not happening. He's going to win the nomination, but then he NEEDS partisan polarization to do his heavy lifting - and he can't help himself from declaring his fascist intent so that's more of an uphill battle than ever.
A defeated former president has not tried this return in the modern primary era! It really ain’t that great, and there is nothing to which you can compare a one-state result.
The choice in November won't be between Trump and two other Republicans. It will be Trump and a Dem. He'll get much better than "51%" of the Republican vote and no little percentage of people registered or nominally Democrats. A plurality nationally, probably not. In the right states? Maybe.
Scarborough said this morning : what if Obama could have come back in 2020 (or even today). What percent of Democrats would he get?
That to me really illustrated why we don't have to see 51% as some juggernaut.
On the other hand, while at least real voters, it wasn't that many of them, and they were in Iowa, and the weather sucked.
Still, Keep Hope Alive
Well said, Andrew. As I read it, I thought for sure you had a Substack newsletter!
Hasn't anyone told Trump that 51% is pathetic?
This is all correct imo. However, what is scary isn’t that Trump is running it’s that so many Americans (45-47%) think any of this is qualifying to be president. That is what scares me.
I know the election will be close electorally. I know Biden will win the popular vote by more than 7m votes. The idea that there is a chance he could be president just utterly bewilders me.
Oh, well done, sir!
Not to mention that this tepid performance was in a state that is a perfect reflection of his base: Lily white, rural, and evangelical.
Right? I read so many think pieces about how thoroughly Trumpism has captured the Iowan evangelical cohort in the leadup to this caucus. I was expecting a 75-80% romp, not a showing where DeSantis not only cracked double digits but hit 20%. The MAGA brainrot is real, and it is terminal, but it remains confined to a recognizable minority that can be outflanked and defeated decisively.
If you add up trump's and DeSantis's votes, you do get to that 75%. Several prominent evangelical leaders supported DeSantis in Iowa. When he drops out, the evangelical vote will go entirely to trump.
Absolutely agree they can be outflanked. I'm not sure, yet, the Biden campaign knows how.