
The Upside-Down Election
The Trump-Vance campaign is flouting the unofficial rules of American politics. Will they finally break our democracy, or will those basic standards hold out?
WAS THE 2016 ELECTION A WATERSHED or an outlier? At the time, it seemed like the latter: Donald Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million but squeaked out an Electoral College win when every variable broke his way, including foreign interference. He then led Republicans to three disappointing national elections in a row.
But Trumpās 2016 victory made a lot of political observers go āon tilt,ā as poker players call it. A gambler goes on tilt after betting big on a strong favorite and losing, especially when the loss comes to someone playing erratically and getting lucky. It can feel like nothing makes sense, the rules donāt apply anymore, and maybe the best thing to do is the opposite of what you feel you should do.
For eight years, mainstream media institutions have been on tilt in their coverage of Trump: Theyāve held him to a lower standard and centered his voters, presuming that nothing can hurt his support and bad things probably help. It is as if the normal rules of politics have been turned upside-down.
The 2024 election will show whether they really have beenāand whether Trumpās fluke victory in 2016 really was a watershed.
Trump is running a fascist campaign, the most un-American in U.S. history. Below, I offer eight unofficial rules of American democracy that Trump has brokenārules it would have been unthinkable for an American politician to break before Trump arrived on the scene. If he wins despite doing all that, the system itself will break. But if he loses, and Kamala Harris beats him while standing for pluralist democracy and rule of law, then the old rules will have survived their greatest challenge and proven themselves viable for the next stage of our countryās future.
1. Records Matter
A classic question of presidential politics is āare you better off today than you were four years ago?ā The answer for the vast majority of Americans today is an unambiguous yes. It can be hard to remember just how fraught the situation was four years ago: sickness and death, widespread business closures, an economic crash, a spike in violent crime, and civil unrest. But while the incumbent party has overseen significant improvement in all those areas, it doesnāt seem to be helping them much politically.
In 2016, it made sense to treat Trump as an untested possibility because he had never held office before. But now he has a record, and that record is, at best, unimpressive. Trump failed on his main promisesārepeal Obamacare and replace it with something better; build a border wall and get Mexico to pay for itāand he is running on the same promises now, as if he was never president. President Joe Biden has even accomplished some things Trump repeatedly promised but never delivered, such as a big infrastructure bill with billions of dollars for the āforgottenā parts of the country the Republican populist supposedly cares about.
Even Trumpās supposed strength, the pre-COVID economy, was mediocre. If we give him a pass on a quarter of his time in officeāwhich no other president getsāand focus on the 2017ā2019 economy, it was weaker than the current one.
Itās as though records donāt matter anymore. Maybe itās all just vibes.
2. Presidential Approval Ratings and Re-election Chances Follow the Economy
The oldest president ever elected saw inflation spike early in his first term, much of it resulting from an external shock. Then it eased in his third and fourth year, after the Fed jacked up interest rates. That presidentās name was Ronald Reagan, and he branded the economic improvement āMorning in Americaā before going on to win re-election in a 49-state landslide. Inflation rose again in Reaganās final year, but his vice president George H.W. Bush still won the 1988 presidential election easily with an Electoral College margin of 426 to 111.
Inflation under Reagan reached higher highs (10.3 percent compared to Bidenās 8.0 percent), as did interest rates (19.1 percent vs. 5.33 percent). Both were higher in 1984 (4.3 percent inflation, 9.99 percent October federal funds rate) and 1988 (4.1 percent and 8.3 percent) than they are in October 2024 (2.4 percent and 4.83 percent). Unemployment was higher under Reagan, too, reaching 7.4 percent in October 1984 and eventually coming down to 5.4 percent in October 1988. Today, unemployment is at 4.1 percent.
Pick an economic metricāGDP growth, real wages, stock indicesāand the United States is currently doing well, outperforming all other developed economies. Some Americans are struggling, but thatās true in every economy, and a higher proportion of Americans was struggling in 1984 and 1988, or in 2012 when Barack Obama won re-election, than are struggling now. But Bidenās approval rating has been net negative since September 2021, and it barely moved as the economy improved.
Maybe material conditionsāmore specifically, general trends in material conditions in an election yearādonāt matter anymore. And maybe the candidateās plans to improve material conditions donāt matter, either. Sixty-eight percent of Wall Street economists say Trumpās economic plans will create higher inflation than Harrisās, while only 12 percent say Harrisās plans will cause worse inflation. But voters who say theyāre concerned about prices donāt seem to care.
3. Crime Doesnāt Pay
This is an easy one: America has never elected a president who is under criminal indictment, let alone one who is a convicted felon. Before this year, no major party had nominated one.
Breaking the law was widely considered, well, bad. That criminality was an electoral liability was obvious: Scroll down Wikipediaās list of American politicians convicted of crimes and click on a few of their names to see how their careers fared. But a lot of Republican primary voters either cheer Trumpās lawbreaking or shrug it off, managing the cognitive dissonance with absurd conspiracy theories that cast him as a victim. Now the entire law-and-order Republican party, senior officeholders on down, is engaged in a national project to put this one criminal above the law.
There are signs that the Crime is Bad rule still has some of its power. Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) both got indicted, convicted, and pushed out of Congress. New York City Mayor Eric Adams is currently under indictment, and heās not getting defenses, excuses, or sympathetic conspiracy theories from his party or the press.
If Trump becomes president as a convicted criminal, it will end the rule of law in America. But if he loses, sentencing for his conviction in the hush-money case and the trials for the other cases against him will move forward, and the norm that political leaders should follow the lawāeven if only because they see lawbreaking as an electoral liabilityāmight return.
4. When Natural Disasters Strike, Americans Work Together
Before Trump, natural disasters were opportunities for parties to put aside politics and work together. These moments reminded everyone that in spite of our countryās political divisions, Americans will always rally to help each other. Bipartisan relief bills in Congress, federal-state cooperation, ex-presidents of both parties doing joint fundraising: They all conveyed the same important message of unity in the face of disaster.
Not Trump. He and JD Vance, along with Elon Musk and the Online Right, have repeatedly lied about the response to Hurricane Helene. Their false claims about FEMA have generated threats and harassment against aid workers, and those claims have continued to hinder rescue efforts despite insistence from local officials that they are false.
As Barack Obama recently asked, āWhen did that become okay?ā
But maybe there arenāt enough people who care. Or perhaps the information environment is so bad that they never hear the truth.
5. While Illegal Immigration Is a Problem, Legal Immigration Is Good for Everyone
Immigration hawks often argued that they opposed illegal immigration, not immigration in general. Theyād cite the importance of upholding the law and the unfairness to those who follow the lengthy legal process when many donāt.
The Trump-Vance campaign, and senior aides such as Stephen Miller, have done away with that. In the vice presidential debate, Vance explained that he didnāt care that Haitian immigrants living in Springfield, Ohio had legal status: He was going to call them āillegalā anyway. In office, Trump formed a denaturalization task force to find ways under current law to strip citizenship from more people, and should Trump return to office, Miller promises the initiative will be āturbocharged.ā
Going after legal immigrants and naturalized citizens is supposed to turn off voters, roughly one in ten of whom are naturalized citizens, according to Pew. But maybe it doesnāt? Some Americans are into it, and many others either donāt mind or deny what a policy of denaturalization would look like in practice.
6. Overt Racism Alienates Voters
In 1981, Republican strategist Lee Atwater infamously explained that they couldnāt just say the n-word anymore, so his party used euphemisms like āforced bussingā and āstatesā rights,ā confident their target audience would know what they meant. Ever since George Wallace mounted an independent segregationist presidential campaign in 1968āhe won five states in the South, but received less than 14 percent of the popular vote overallānational politicians interested in leveraging racist appeals have done so indirectly, maintaining plausible deniability and relying on what their opponents characterize as ādog whistles.ā
The dog whistles have since become bullhorns. Trump-Vance 2024 is an explicitly racist campaign, with Trump channeling Hitler and other twentieth-century fascists by calling his political opponents āvermin,ā claiming that immigrants from Latin America are āpoisoning the bloodā of the country, and by distinguishing between Good Jews (who support him) and Bad Jews (whom he says heāll blame if he loses). The GOP ticket and their surrogates have not stopped pushing vicious lies to demonize Haitians in Ohio, Venezuelans in Colorado, and minorities around the country. The campaign regularly puts out TV spots that make the infamous 1988 āWillie Hortonā ad seem tame, even downright tasteful by comparison.
But the racism doesnāt appear to be hurting the campaign. In fact, Trump is polling better with black and Latino votersāprimarily with menāthan previous Republican nominees. If the Trump-Vance ticket wins, Trump and Vance will see a mandate to act on their threats of mass violence against āillegal immigrantsāāwhich they say includes legal immigrants, and which would almost certainly lead to attacks on U.S. citizens who look, to racists, like they arenāt from here.
Then again, Republicans running in statewide races whoāve expressed sympathy for Nazisāsuch as the GOPās nominee for North Carolina governor, Mark Robinson, who called himself one on an online message boardāare lagging in polls, so maybe itās just Trump.
7. Voters Hold Candidates to Their Promises
Presidential candidates make promises, and their surrogates try to convince voters that the candidates mean them and will actually accomplish those promises if elected. If they fail, some voters will hold it against them. But thatās not how it works with Trump 2024. Swaths of his supporters are insisting he doesnāt mean what he says he will do and wonāt actually do it.
A pathetic recent example saw Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin repeatedly insist to CNNās Jake Tapper that Trumpās threats to use the military against āradical left lunaticsā (including, remarkably, Rep. Adam Schiff) was meant to refer only to illegal immigrant criminals, even as Tapper directly quoted Trump explaining that he meant Americans. Some business leaders who know Trumpās proposed tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy insist he wonāt do it, even though he imposed tariffs as president and repeatedly vows to impose a whole lot more. Others simply deny anything about him that they find inconvenient.
It looks like theyāre rationalizing, telling themselves stories to square the circle of believing āIād never support a bigoted, anti-democracy criminalā while also advocating the election of a convicted, anti-democracy bigot. But if theyād compromise themselves this deeply for a guy whose viciousness is this blatant, what wouldnāt they do it for?
8. Anti-American Authoritarians Are Bad; Democracy and U.S. Allies Are Good
Itās crazy that the Republican party, which once prided itself on Ronald Reaganās muscular stance against authoritarians in Moscow, has lined up behind a man who kisses up to Vladimir Putin and advocates abandoning a U.S.-friendly European democracy to Russian military aggression. But here we are.
Previous presidential candidates of both parties disagreed on how America should approach being leader of the free world; Trump is the first to reject the role entirely. He takes Putinās side, and he gushes with praise for North Koreaās Kim Jong-un and Chinaās Xi Jinping. He denigrates and threatens Americaās democratic allies in Europe and Asia. He, Vance, and various prominent Republicans hold up Viktor OrbĆ”nās Hungaryāa picture of democratic backslidingāas a model for the United States to follow.
Trump has shown that a politician can run against a defining feature of the United States since WWIIāarguably since the founding, or at least since the Civil Warāand remain a viable candidate. If he returns to power despite all that, American democracy and the U.S.-led world order could be damaged beyond repair.
But if he loses, then pro-democracy forces will be invigorated both at home and abroad. As for the Republicans who donāt love the anti-democracy stuff but are going along with it because they think Trump is a path to power and policy outcomes: Self-interest might finally force them to see it as a disqualifying liability.
No modern U.S. election has offered two paths that diverge this sharply from one another. Americans arenāt just picking between policy programs: Theyāre facing a referendum on living in factual reality, where the basic rules of Constitutional democracy still hold sway. If they choose against it, we might not be coming back.