In the world's richest nation where, enough foodstuff has created an obesity and health care epidemic, where the populace gorges themselves into numbness with myriad info/streaming services, where an entitled & "disrespected" populace bemoans their fate (or, if graspable, the economy) as to why they are not millionaires by age forty what else should one expect? Welcome to the intersection of politics and entertainment. Ours is a post-truth society now where nothing means anything anymore. Even responsibility for personal choices. Sadly, most prefer it that way. That's the third fallacy you are omitting: unwarranted apathy.
Exhaustion is what narcissists and sociopaths count on. They will be relentless until the enemy caves. Winston Churchill understood this and rallied his country to withstand the hardships of war. He was deeply influenced by his American born mother, Jenny Jerome, who admonished him to “Never give in. never, never, never, never give in”. Exhaustion is simply not an excuse for those who are committed to saving our democracy.
The fact that you think Biden is doing a bang-up job is the same reason why right-leaning voters still think “there isn’t much difference between the two parties”.
The reality, of course, is that this was WAY more true twenty years ago, but that entrenched perspective is still fueling the perception gap today. It harkens to a twisted version of one of the left’s big slogans from the 2020 primary: “if there isn’t much difference between Biden and what Republicans used to be, why not vote for the Republicans who claim they still are what they used to be?”.
The effect of inflation and higher interest rates on the lives of most people can't be ignored. To the upper 10%, we can survive all of these things, but everybody else struggles. It doesn't matter what statistics say, lives are much more difficult than they used to be. Just ask a 20 something year old if they can afford to buy a house or even pay the rent.
This is a ridiculous type of fight where facts, principles, reason, persuasion don't matter - the only thing that counts is outnumbering the MAGAs in relevant constituencies.
What's that "humourous" quote about the impending doom?.......
I give a bit of a pass to the monies spent during the pandemic......there were crises happening across many industries/businesses. And yes, I get that we can't just spend without regard to future consequences, but I'm always, always shocked that the knee jerk reaction is to yank away any kind of social safety net.
He dropped 11 points with Democrats because some have empathy for people in Gaza and are worried about what is happening there. It's not that hard to understand. I'm worried too, even though I don't yet blame Biden. This is almost an impossible situation to talk about without pissing off some voters.
Be wary of becoming Denethor. If poeple only know Denethor from the film version of the Lord of the Rings they may think he's just an ass but in the novels the reason for his madness is explained. He has been peering into a palatir learing what has been transpiring, hence why he knows about Aragorn. But Sauron has been manipulating what Denethor sees, showing him only hoplessness and failure, thus Denethor fell into despair and in that way helped the enemy with his fatalism. Yes the polls are bad, yes the people are iditos for even considering Trump again, but we must not become fatalistic. No one knows the future and what event may change its course. We must fight, we must always believe that victoyr can be had and we must never despair nor spread despair to other own. Know that the fight is hard, that enemy is great, but do not grant them the future.
Denethor is also a much more noble figure in the book, which makes his madness more powerful and even tragic. While I really love Peter Jackson's LOTR, his treatment of Denethor was a disappointment.
JVL, my theory on why people are bummed even though the economy is bad is that the question is always one of outlook. When I, and probably most, look at there retirement, like my 401K, it is ugly. For the past year, maybe even two, it's done nothing but go backwards. So even though I'm OK today, my outlook is that my future is in question because I've seen what I perceive to be my future security being eroded away. I'm retired so I don't have a super long horizon for my future but I'd like to leave something for my children and right now it's not looking good. Just a thought on why the outlook of people is so down even though the economy is up.
Guy #3: I also have retirement accounts that just make me gasp when I open them up to see their results.
JVL: I would love to know what this gentleman has his retirement savings in because here’s what Fidelity is seeing with the 401(k) plans they manage:
Fidelity Investments: "The second quarter of this year was a good one for retirement savers, according to a new analysis from Fidelity Investments.
"Thanks to continued employee and employer contributions, coupled with an improving market, 401(k) balances rose on average for all age groups not just in the second quarter, but compared to the same period a year earlier. . . .
"Overall the average 401(k) balance rose to $112,400, up 4% from the first quarter. This is the third straight quarter in which the average balance grew. And compared to a decade ago, the average balance is 39% higher. . . .
"Fidelity found that the average 401(k) account for Baby Boomers rose 6.3%. Millions of Boomers, of course, will be retiring over the next several years. And those who have been saving continuously since 2008 now have an average balance of $499,000. That’s well above the second quarter average — $220,900 — for everyone in that age group.
"Younger workers, meanwhile, saw double-digit percentage increases in their balances over the past year: 14.5% for Gen Xers to $153,300; 24.5% for Millennials to $48,300; and 66% for Gen Z workers to $8,100.
"Regardless of generation, people who have been saving consistently over the past 5, 10 and 15 years saw double-digit percentage increases as well, according to Fidelity."
JVL: Maybe Guy #3’s retirement funds were all in crypto in which case, sure, I’d gasp, too. Crypto is deader than disco. But for people who parked their savings in index funds geared toward their retirement dates? Their situation is good.
JVL is so sure Biden is the best possible candidate. And he's got reasons. But Democrats, when asked, don't want him this time around. Maybe if your voters don't want you you aren't the best possible candidate?
One thing is for sure, no one else will be vetted if no one else runs.
The last man to announce a presidential run this late and win was Ronald Reagan (11/13/79). The last Democrat to do so was JFK (1/2/60). Do the Democrats today have a Reagan or JFK caliber candidate? Is this a good time to find out?
Sarah Longwell says Biden should have been challenged 10 months ago, but now it is too late. She might be right about the too late part, I'm not an expert on campaign mechanics.
I agree with Sarah. Though I also understand how Biden's people at the time, seeing Trump forming up to return, and Republican servility before him, could have concluded that Biden was the best shot.
The American presidential campaign cycle *is* ridiculously long and expensive, often for rather poor yields of general-election candidates. But we have to land the plane we're in.
I can't tell whether Dean Philips run is good or not. People (not you) refer to Kennedy's run against Carter. I remember that, it was bitter and Kennedy couldn't stand Carter. This seems so different. Philips is giving Biden credit as a good president. He is instead running because people are saying they want a change. If he makes a good run, people either pick him (seems good), or pick Biden (seems good). In either case people make a choice and aren't limited to DNC preferences.
I believe the Biden people are acting in good faith, my feeling is that we shouldn't be afraid of voters weighing in.
"Since the advent of the modern primary election system in 1972, an incumbent president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, though every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to be defeated in the general election."
That is the argument I hear. The counterargument is that history surprises, and this election is structurally way different and analogizing from the past 50 years is not appropriate. Personally when I look for a similar historical moment I go to the 1850s as much as the 1970s. We are off the normal playbook.
I agree with you a lot, JVL, but I am unclear about whether Biden has gotten it right on Israel. I’m not sure any of us has, because we don’t listen to Palestinian voices. I posted this elsewhere, but it deserves to be read.
Thanks for the link. Heartbreaking. I don't understand why people I like are so one-sided on Israel. Bulwark people decry unspeakable statements Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib made. I look and cannot find anything despicable.
I wasn't too keen on the part where Tlaib ascribed blame for the "hospital bombing" to... Joe Biden. "@POTUS this is what happens when you refuse to facilitate a ceasefire & help de-escalate. Your war and destruction only approach has opened my eyes and many Palestinian Americans and Muslims Americans like me. We will remember where you stood."
I find most of the dysfunctional elements of our modern discourse in it. The social-media rush to mistaken judgement (not only about the circumstances of the hospital, but also what Biden *would* or would not do when he got to Israel the following day). The assignment of direct causal relationships between American politicians' postures and any bad thing that happens anywhere. To Biden, Tlaib calls Israel's early response "YOUR war and destruction only approach." Along with "this is what happens when you..," this is *clearly* blaming Biden. It's just dishonest politics - most abundant among Trump-Republicans, of course, but no less poisonous from any other source.
And then, she caps it off with a threat, with the country as hostage. "We will remember where you stood." How exactly? What does that imply, at just this moment? Non-support in the election, of course. This is the kind of thing that might push Michigan back into competitive territory. This is not responsible.
I probably have a higher tolerance for people I disagree with than you. The red line in this case is cheering on Hamas or excusing war crimes, as far as I know none of the squad has done either. For Tlaib in particular, her parents are Palestinian, I keep that in mind when she speaks.
At the same time there has been crossing the line in the other direction by Israeli officials ("animals", food & medicine siege) and US right wing politicians. Really, war crimes should be called out always, and I find it weird that Bulwark people I like get fired up over stuff like what the Squad says but are seemingly OK with collective punishment and war crimes. I can tell we are pretty far apart on this.
Last comment. Two thirds of the US economy is consumer spending, when consumers lack confidence in the economy, in their future, they stop spending and trigger a recession. For all the polls among voters, you can also poll consumers. Do they feel confident enough to spend their money, the actual numbers (and not what someone claims to a pollster) indicate they do. People are voting for Biden and the US with their dollars.
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
In the world's richest nation where, enough foodstuff has created an obesity and health care epidemic, where the populace gorges themselves into numbness with myriad info/streaming services, where an entitled & "disrespected" populace bemoans their fate (or, if graspable, the economy) as to why they are not millionaires by age forty what else should one expect? Welcome to the intersection of politics and entertainment. Ours is a post-truth society now where nothing means anything anymore. Even responsibility for personal choices. Sadly, most prefer it that way. That's the third fallacy you are omitting: unwarranted apathy.
Exhaustion is what narcissists and sociopaths count on. They will be relentless until the enemy caves. Winston Churchill understood this and rallied his country to withstand the hardships of war. He was deeply influenced by his American born mother, Jenny Jerome, who admonished him to “Never give in. never, never, never, never give in”. Exhaustion is simply not an excuse for those who are committed to saving our democracy.
JVL - Here’s a hot take for you:
The fact that you think Biden is doing a bang-up job is the same reason why right-leaning voters still think “there isn’t much difference between the two parties”.
The reality, of course, is that this was WAY more true twenty years ago, but that entrenched perspective is still fueling the perception gap today. It harkens to a twisted version of one of the left’s big slogans from the 2020 primary: “if there isn’t much difference between Biden and what Republicans used to be, why not vote for the Republicans who claim they still are what they used to be?”.
The effect of inflation and higher interest rates on the lives of most people can't be ignored. To the upper 10%, we can survive all of these things, but everybody else struggles. It doesn't matter what statistics say, lives are much more difficult than they used to be. Just ask a 20 something year old if they can afford to buy a house or even pay the rent.
This is a ridiculous type of fight where facts, principles, reason, persuasion don't matter - the only thing that counts is outnumbering the MAGAs in relevant constituencies.
What's that "humourous" quote about the impending doom?.......
I give a bit of a pass to the monies spent during the pandemic......there were crises happening across many industries/businesses. And yes, I get that we can't just spend without regard to future consequences, but I'm always, always shocked that the knee jerk reaction is to yank away any kind of social safety net.
I am a lifelong Cubs fan. More to the point, a lifelong centrist too.
Go Cubs.
Interesting. My 401k is with Fidelity as well. I guess my manager isn't privy to the info the other Fidelity guys see.
He dropped 11 points with Democrats because some have empathy for people in Gaza and are worried about what is happening there. It's not that hard to understand. I'm worried too, even though I don't yet blame Biden. This is almost an impossible situation to talk about without pissing off some voters.
Be wary of becoming Denethor. If poeple only know Denethor from the film version of the Lord of the Rings they may think he's just an ass but in the novels the reason for his madness is explained. He has been peering into a palatir learing what has been transpiring, hence why he knows about Aragorn. But Sauron has been manipulating what Denethor sees, showing him only hoplessness and failure, thus Denethor fell into despair and in that way helped the enemy with his fatalism. Yes the polls are bad, yes the people are iditos for even considering Trump again, but we must not become fatalistic. No one knows the future and what event may change its course. We must fight, we must always believe that victoyr can be had and we must never despair nor spread despair to other own. Know that the fight is hard, that enemy is great, but do not grant them the future.
Denethor is also a much more noble figure in the book, which makes his madness more powerful and even tragic. While I really love Peter Jackson's LOTR, his treatment of Denethor was a disappointment.
JVL, my theory on why people are bummed even though the economy is bad is that the question is always one of outlook. When I, and probably most, look at there retirement, like my 401K, it is ugly. For the past year, maybe even two, it's done nothing but go backwards. So even though I'm OK today, my outlook is that my future is in question because I've seen what I perceive to be my future security being eroded away. I'm retired so I don't have a super long horizon for my future but I'd like to leave something for my children and right now it's not looking good. Just a thought on why the outlook of people is so down even though the economy is up.
.
Guy #3: I also have retirement accounts that just make me gasp when I open them up to see their results.
JVL: I would love to know what this gentleman has his retirement savings in because here’s what Fidelity is seeing with the 401(k) plans they manage:
Fidelity Investments: "The second quarter of this year was a good one for retirement savers, according to a new analysis from Fidelity Investments.
"Thanks to continued employee and employer contributions, coupled with an improving market, 401(k) balances rose on average for all age groups not just in the second quarter, but compared to the same period a year earlier. . . .
"Overall the average 401(k) balance rose to $112,400, up 4% from the first quarter. This is the third straight quarter in which the average balance grew. And compared to a decade ago, the average balance is 39% higher. . . .
"Fidelity found that the average 401(k) account for Baby Boomers rose 6.3%. Millions of Boomers, of course, will be retiring over the next several years. And those who have been saving continuously since 2008 now have an average balance of $499,000. That’s well above the second quarter average — $220,900 — for everyone in that age group.
"Younger workers, meanwhile, saw double-digit percentage increases in their balances over the past year: 14.5% for Gen Xers to $153,300; 24.5% for Millennials to $48,300; and 66% for Gen Z workers to $8,100.
"Regardless of generation, people who have been saving consistently over the past 5, 10 and 15 years saw double-digit percentage increases as well, according to Fidelity."
JVL: Maybe Guy #3’s retirement funds were all in crypto in which case, sure, I’d gasp, too. Crypto is deader than disco. But for people who parked their savings in index funds geared toward their retirement dates? Their situation is good.
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/voters-are-unreliable-narrators
.https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/17/success/average-retirement-401k-savings-balance/index.html
.
JVL is so sure Biden is the best possible candidate. And he's got reasons. But Democrats, when asked, don't want him this time around. Maybe if your voters don't want you you aren't the best possible candidate?
One thing is for sure, no one else will be vetted if no one else runs.
The last man to announce a presidential run this late and win was Ronald Reagan (11/13/79). The last Democrat to do so was JFK (1/2/60). Do the Democrats today have a Reagan or JFK caliber candidate? Is this a good time to find out?
Sarah Longwell says Biden should have been challenged 10 months ago, but now it is too late. She might be right about the too late part, I'm not an expert on campaign mechanics.
She's right that coronating Biden was a mistake.
I agree with Sarah. Though I also understand how Biden's people at the time, seeing Trump forming up to return, and Republican servility before him, could have concluded that Biden was the best shot.
The American presidential campaign cycle *is* ridiculously long and expensive, often for rather poor yields of general-election candidates. But we have to land the plane we're in.
I can't tell whether Dean Philips run is good or not. People (not you) refer to Kennedy's run against Carter. I remember that, it was bitter and Kennedy couldn't stand Carter. This seems so different. Philips is giving Biden credit as a good president. He is instead running because people are saying they want a change. If he makes a good run, people either pick him (seems good), or pick Biden (seems good). In either case people make a choice and aren't limited to DNC preferences.
I believe the Biden people are acting in good faith, my feeling is that we shouldn't be afraid of voters weighing in.
"Since the advent of the modern primary election system in 1972, an incumbent president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, though every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to be defeated in the general election."
That is the argument I hear. The counterargument is that history surprises, and this election is structurally way different and analogizing from the past 50 years is not appropriate. Personally when I look for a similar historical moment I go to the 1850s as much as the 1970s. We are off the normal playbook.
I wish they would ask me. I want Biden. No one asks me.
Strange to say, I do too. I think he's done a great job.
I agree with you a lot, JVL, but I am unclear about whether Biden has gotten it right on Israel. I’m not sure any of us has, because we don’t listen to Palestinian voices. I posted this elsewhere, but it deserves to be read.
https://www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/no-human-being-can-exist/
Thanks for the link. Heartbreaking. I don't understand why people I like are so one-sided on Israel. Bulwark people decry unspeakable statements Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib made. I look and cannot find anything despicable.
I wasn't too keen on the part where Tlaib ascribed blame for the "hospital bombing" to... Joe Biden. "@POTUS this is what happens when you refuse to facilitate a ceasefire & help de-escalate. Your war and destruction only approach has opened my eyes and many Palestinian Americans and Muslims Americans like me. We will remember where you stood."
Like the other quotes I saw, not something I agree with, but where is the despicable part?
And calling this ascribing blame on Biden? That is too strong.
We will have to disagree.
I find most of the dysfunctional elements of our modern discourse in it. The social-media rush to mistaken judgement (not only about the circumstances of the hospital, but also what Biden *would* or would not do when he got to Israel the following day). The assignment of direct causal relationships between American politicians' postures and any bad thing that happens anywhere. To Biden, Tlaib calls Israel's early response "YOUR war and destruction only approach." Along with "this is what happens when you..," this is *clearly* blaming Biden. It's just dishonest politics - most abundant among Trump-Republicans, of course, but no less poisonous from any other source.
And then, she caps it off with a threat, with the country as hostage. "We will remember where you stood." How exactly? What does that imply, at just this moment? Non-support in the election, of course. This is the kind of thing that might push Michigan back into competitive territory. This is not responsible.
I probably have a higher tolerance for people I disagree with than you. The red line in this case is cheering on Hamas or excusing war crimes, as far as I know none of the squad has done either. For Tlaib in particular, her parents are Palestinian, I keep that in mind when she speaks.
At the same time there has been crossing the line in the other direction by Israeli officials ("animals", food & medicine siege) and US right wing politicians. Really, war crimes should be called out always, and I find it weird that Bulwark people I like get fired up over stuff like what the Squad says but are seemingly OK with collective punishment and war crimes. I can tell we are pretty far apart on this.
Thank you for reading it. It’s a tough read.
Last comment. Two thirds of the US economy is consumer spending, when consumers lack confidence in the economy, in their future, they stop spending and trigger a recession. For all the polls among voters, you can also poll consumers. Do they feel confident enough to spend their money, the actual numbers (and not what someone claims to a pollster) indicate they do. People are voting for Biden and the US with their dollars.
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
If you find Book of the Dead sold out on Amazon, as I did, you can order it directly from the West Virginia University Press.
And how wonderful is it that WVU continues to publish a book like this, in spite of how increasingly regressive that state is?!
To JVL’s first point, we are exhausted.
And we are also the ones we’ve been waiting for.
So, in the immortal words of Henry the Fifth in Shakespeare’s Henry V,
“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there's nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour'd rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o'erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O'erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill'd with the wild and wasteful ocean.
Now set the teeth and stretch the nostril wide,
Hold hard the breath and bend up every spirit
To his full height.”
Buck up and get ready to fight like our lives depend upon it. Because they do.