Another Triad Video Mailbag is coming! This Friday, Jasmine and JVL will be back to answer your questions. Leave your Q’s here. You know the rules. Queries about pinball and watches will get top priority, obviously.
1. The Turn
There comes a point in every autocratic regime where popular legitimacy curdles. The regime, which began by insisting that it represented the will of the people, becomes so unpopular that it seeks to stay in place through the exertion of raw power.
This turn sets off a race. The opposition tries to build enough popular legitimacy to dislodge the autocrat through political means; the autocrat tries to leverage enough institutional power to retain control over the government even in the face of a disgruntled majority.
That’s where we are, right now. And I have a chart1 that makes this clear as day:
Trump gets more unpopular but . . . Republican prospects in the House get better.
So let’s talk about what levers the regime is using: the courts, the media, intimidation, and incentives.
(1) The courts. This isn’t as simple as a single decision on redistricting. What we’ve seen is a wild asymmetry. The U.S. Supreme Court rules that Texas can redistrict mid-cycle. The Supreme Court of Virginia rules that Virginia cannot.
