Trump Will Try to Drag Kamala Into the Mud With Him
It’s his only play.
1. Mud Pit
One of the things we’re hearing from Good Republicans is that Donald Trump is falling down on the job by indulging in his usual personal attacks and shenanigans.
Here’s Nikki Haley talking about Kamala Harris on Fox the other day:
“And the one thing Republicans have to stop doing: Quit whining about her. We knew it was going to be her.”
Haley told Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier on "Special Report" Republicans and former President Trump should focus on policy and messaging instead of crowd sizes at rallies, Harris' race, or attacks on her intellect.
"You can't win on those things. The American people are smart. Treat them like they're smart," she said. "It's not about her. It's about the American people. Talk to them and let them know you need their vote."
In the Wall Street Journal Gerry Baker warned that Trump was losing because he was being an erratic lunatic:
We need to be clear about the problem. It isn’t, as some have suggested, that Mr. Trump has been wrong-footed by the Democrats’ switch from Mr. Biden to Ms. Harris. Nor is it a reflection of accelerated degeneration. The Trump of the past few weeks has looked and sounded more or less exactly like the Trump of nine years ago.
This is the problem. It is this Mr. Trump who lost the presidency in 2020. It is this Mr. Trump who lost the House in 2018 and the Senate in the Georgia runoff election in January 2021.
Why did he win in 2016? Because he was new and up against the most tediously familiar and disliked politician in America. Even then, he only squeaked past Hillary Clinton by a total of fewer than 90,000 votes in the three decisive states.
All this explains where we are now. . . .
Mr. Trump’s performances as he traipses around the country again are reinforcing the illusion of that choice. Instead of telling them consistently and repeatedly what they are actually getting if they vote Democrat, he is merely reminding them what they will get again if they vote Republican.
I want to have a value-neutral discussion because—just objectively—these Good Republicans are incorrect. Trump is doing exactly what he needs to in order to have a chance to beat Kamala Harris. And if Trump were to suddenly start running a disciplined, policy-specific campaign he would almost certainly lose.
I’m going to explain why, partly because it’s an exploration of the nature of political coalitions, but also because it should inform how the Harris campaign responds.
Here is the reality: Donald Trump’s best path to victory goes right through a mud pit and he’s going to do everything possible to drag Kamala Harris into it with him.1