Please tell me I'm wrong, but I don't understand the focus on Trump's poll numbers. Even if he is willing to leave after the '28 election, the ideologues behind him aren't going anywhere. And best case, it will take years to reapair the damage. So, I don't see the green shoots.
The RNC chair may be predicting doom, but I remain skeptical. We saw from the voter swings in 2024 and the gubernatorial elections in VA and NJ in 2025 (I'm deliberately not including the NYC mayoral election, because of the progressive overhype regarding Mamdani's victory, when in fact he only won 51% of the vote against 2 terrible candidates) just how much "the people" are driven by their own personal economic issues (aka "affordability"), and how quickly they are willing to switch allegiances when they see their pocketbooks at risk. If gas prices remain low, and Trump eases off the tariffs just enough for food prices to trend downward, he will go on a rant about how the economy is turning around and how Democratic policies are keeping rents high and it's all the Fed's fault that interest rates aren't back down to Covid era rates. And "the people" are dumb enough to buy into all this, at which point the 2026 "blue wave" becomes a mirage. I hope I'm wrong.
Yes. But regardless of blue wave or mirage, my greater concern is this: will we have free and fair elections, open to all registered citizens and, more importantly, will the outcome of the election even be 'accepted' by this Regime. Elections are great, but only when free, fair, and binding. I do not think Trump et al will give up power based on some dumb election.
You raise a legitimate concern, especially with respect to the 2026 elections. It constantly amazes me how many supposedly informed voters are willing to forgive and forget that the real systemic danger of what unfolded on Jan. 6, 2021 was not the attack on the Capitol (heinous as it was) but rather what led up to it: Trump and his fellow co-conspirators participation in the conspiracy to have phony state elector ballots in which Trump was declared the winner in AZ, MI and PA certified as legitimate once Pence refused to certify the actual Electoral College results. Pence's rare display of integrity on Jan. 6th (mostly due to Judge Luttig's unequivocal legal advice to Pence that Pence had no legal way to avoid certification) was what prevented the stealing of the 2020 election. Like you, I fear Trump and his cronies (including Vance, who has zero integrity) will pull out all the stops to hold power, although my hope is that by 2028 the Republicans in Congress will refuse to go along because Trump is so unpopular (they also lack integrity but will not let Trump take them off a cliff at their expense in terms of reelection etc.).
We can only hope the Suzie Wiles has her way and our demented, deluded, perverted, disgusting vulgarian of a lying-bully-president-clown will be out there on the campaign trail for every single Republican running for office in 2026. Either Suzie is on the sauce or simply drank the kool-aid, but if she thinks Mr. T is the answer these days, let's not tell her any different.
I am concerned about mass movements for the same reason Eric Hoffer was in the 20th century. They often lead to authoritarianism. I am a building democracy by local organizing kind of person. However, I concur with AOL and the Bulwark team, we need to do both. Civic action, civil resistance, and civil society is the fourth (or fifth) branch of a democratic republic (depending on where the press puts itself). It’s both movement and organization. It’s where the power to act is when in concert.
"Past presidents might have put up with disrespect—or allowed for some strategic distance—from candidates in close races, reasoning that they’d rather have congressional majorities than enforce personal purity tests. Donald Trump is about as far the opposite of that as possible." That's because tRUMP couldn't give a shit about the party, either one of them. The only thing Dosy Don cares about is the tRUMPlican party, a party of one family, dedicated to grift, immorality, and greed. I hope that when this is all over that the bootlickers and sniveling sycophants that compose this regime are all locked up in their nice little prisons.
"Yet in the end, they held firm. 'My opposition to mid-cycle gerrymandering is not in contrast to my conservative principles, but because of them,' GOP state Sen. Spencer Deery said ahead of the vote."
Which makes perfect sense, because gerrymandering is NOT a conservative principle, but an AUTHORITARIAN one.
"But Trump’s segue from Colombia to Chicago is a warning. A strongman won’t just go after countries or people you don’t like. Sooner or later, he’ll come for you."
I corrected it for you:
"But Trump’s segue from Colombia to Chicago is a warning. A well-protected coward who can play the role of a strongman won’t just go after countries or people you don’t like. Sooner or later, he’ll come for you."
"According to a third GOP strategist, Republicans are likely to find themselves in particularly bad shape next year precisely because Trump demands that they stay loyal to him."
The problem, and the reason a critical mass of them have not thrown him under the bus yet, is NOT that he demands loyalty, but because a critical mass of those rabid authoritarians and shameless opportunists would have gladly given him loyalty whether he demanded it or not.
Is there a way we can maneuver Donny into talking about how America used to be "dead", but is currently so "hot"? I am thinking it would help the midterms if keeps do that as often as he used to.
Much of the discussion about Republican prospects next year assumes that there are reasons for transactional Trump to care. The transaction he cared about regarding voters was that they elect him - he got that and their well being is no longer relevant for him except for some press headlines. The transaction he cared about from the Supreme Court was that they held him immune from crimes he might commit in the White House - he got that. In addition, he got their commitment that they would support an imperial presidency - and as a result doesn't really need to get anything more from Congress since in almost every area the Court has disregarded Congressional rights in favor of Trump's presidential powers. So at this point, he's probably also thinking that even if the 2026 elections are held (if he allows them) and go against him, previous experiences indicate that conviction through impeachment are unlikely. Meanwhile he's amassing billions for himself and family, destroying any part of government that might not like what he does, firing anyone in the military with power to stop him, and turning thousands of troops loose in our cities. With the destruction of our public health system, if a major pandemic occurs soon a sick and dying public will be too weak to do anything (as our decimated medical and scientific research will not be able to produce a vaccine in time - and if it does RFK jr can make sure it will neither get approved through the FDA nor distributed). The new media takeovers he's encouraging will destroy any major media opposition. Oh, the courts have stopped a few of his revenge moves but does that really diminish any of his power? So why does anyone think Trump is genuinely worried about next year's elections? that leaves the issue of what happens if there are major public insurrections.
I do think he's worried because he's pathologically insecure. He's clearly threatened by everything that makes him unpopular, like unaffordability or Epstein, but I agree there's a plan B in the works based on everything you pointed out.
Re: the Times of London piece on the horrifying “secret” part of the NSS, this part comes straight out John Mearsheimer:
“The unclassified security strategy set out how “the days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over”.
The classified version is said to explain that the goal of global hegemony was “the wrong thing to want and it wasn’t achievable”.
It is believed to say: “After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country. Yet the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests.”
This is the logic behind the focus on policing America’s “hemisphere”, giving it the right to pressure Venezuela as it has done in recent months by destroying alleged drug-running boats and building up a huge military presence in the region.”
Apparently, they believe that the current governments of most Western European countries directly threaten our interests, so we need to change them - whereas Russian imperial belligerence does not threaten our interests, so it should be rewarded.
What remains of the Republican Party is now finding out what it means to be the Trumplican party.
Trump has diverted conservative thought to authoritarian practice. We must redistrict states to try and ensure that there will be no opposition party. Indiana, with both senators and 7 of 9 representatives must redistrict to try and eliminate the need to have elections any longer.
Please tell me I'm wrong, but I don't understand the focus on Trump's poll numbers. Even if he is willing to leave after the '28 election, the ideologues behind him aren't going anywhere. And best case, it will take years to reapair the damage. So, I don't see the green shoots.
“a bunch of shameless hacks pretending to be journalists” from a maga spinster is a badge of honor. Wear it!
Wonder if there has ever been a president guilty of more unforced errors than this one. I'd listen to that HCR talk.
The RNC chair may be predicting doom, but I remain skeptical. We saw from the voter swings in 2024 and the gubernatorial elections in VA and NJ in 2025 (I'm deliberately not including the NYC mayoral election, because of the progressive overhype regarding Mamdani's victory, when in fact he only won 51% of the vote against 2 terrible candidates) just how much "the people" are driven by their own personal economic issues (aka "affordability"), and how quickly they are willing to switch allegiances when they see their pocketbooks at risk. If gas prices remain low, and Trump eases off the tariffs just enough for food prices to trend downward, he will go on a rant about how the economy is turning around and how Democratic policies are keeping rents high and it's all the Fed's fault that interest rates aren't back down to Covid era rates. And "the people" are dumb enough to buy into all this, at which point the 2026 "blue wave" becomes a mirage. I hope I'm wrong.
Yes. But regardless of blue wave or mirage, my greater concern is this: will we have free and fair elections, open to all registered citizens and, more importantly, will the outcome of the election even be 'accepted' by this Regime. Elections are great, but only when free, fair, and binding. I do not think Trump et al will give up power based on some dumb election.
You raise a legitimate concern, especially with respect to the 2026 elections. It constantly amazes me how many supposedly informed voters are willing to forgive and forget that the real systemic danger of what unfolded on Jan. 6, 2021 was not the attack on the Capitol (heinous as it was) but rather what led up to it: Trump and his fellow co-conspirators participation in the conspiracy to have phony state elector ballots in which Trump was declared the winner in AZ, MI and PA certified as legitimate once Pence refused to certify the actual Electoral College results. Pence's rare display of integrity on Jan. 6th (mostly due to Judge Luttig's unequivocal legal advice to Pence that Pence had no legal way to avoid certification) was what prevented the stealing of the 2020 election. Like you, I fear Trump and his cronies (including Vance, who has zero integrity) will pull out all the stops to hold power, although my hope is that by 2028 the Republicans in Congress will refuse to go along because Trump is so unpopular (they also lack integrity but will not let Trump take them off a cliff at their expense in terms of reelection etc.).
Love your work, Andrew- sorry people are giving you so much shit. Keep your chin up!
We can only hope the Suzie Wiles has her way and our demented, deluded, perverted, disgusting vulgarian of a lying-bully-president-clown will be out there on the campaign trail for every single Republican running for office in 2026. Either Suzie is on the sauce or simply drank the kool-aid, but if she thinks Mr. T is the answer these days, let's not tell her any different.
Trump is sick to the core. No further analysis necessary.
I am concerned about mass movements for the same reason Eric Hoffer was in the 20th century. They often lead to authoritarianism. I am a building democracy by local organizing kind of person. However, I concur with AOL and the Bulwark team, we need to do both. Civic action, civil resistance, and civil society is the fourth (or fifth) branch of a democratic republic (depending on where the press puts itself). It’s both movement and organization. It’s where the power to act is when in concert.
"Past presidents might have put up with disrespect—or allowed for some strategic distance—from candidates in close races, reasoning that they’d rather have congressional majorities than enforce personal purity tests. Donald Trump is about as far the opposite of that as possible." That's because tRUMP couldn't give a shit about the party, either one of them. The only thing Dosy Don cares about is the tRUMPlican party, a party of one family, dedicated to grift, immorality, and greed. I hope that when this is all over that the bootlickers and sniveling sycophants that compose this regime are all locked up in their nice little prisons.
"Yet in the end, they held firm. 'My opposition to mid-cycle gerrymandering is not in contrast to my conservative principles, but because of them,' GOP state Sen. Spencer Deery said ahead of the vote."
Which makes perfect sense, because gerrymandering is NOT a conservative principle, but an AUTHORITARIAN one.
"But Trump’s segue from Colombia to Chicago is a warning. A strongman won’t just go after countries or people you don’t like. Sooner or later, he’ll come for you."
I corrected it for you:
"But Trump’s segue from Colombia to Chicago is a warning. A well-protected coward who can play the role of a strongman won’t just go after countries or people you don’t like. Sooner or later, he’ll come for you."
"According to a third GOP strategist, Republicans are likely to find themselves in particularly bad shape next year precisely because Trump demands that they stay loyal to him."
The problem, and the reason a critical mass of them have not thrown him under the bus yet, is NOT that he demands loyalty, but because a critical mass of those rabid authoritarians and shameless opportunists would have gladly given him loyalty whether he demanded it or not.
Is there a way we can maneuver Donny into talking about how America used to be "dead", but is currently so "hot"? I am thinking it would help the midterms if keeps do that as often as he used to.
Much of the discussion about Republican prospects next year assumes that there are reasons for transactional Trump to care. The transaction he cared about regarding voters was that they elect him - he got that and their well being is no longer relevant for him except for some press headlines. The transaction he cared about from the Supreme Court was that they held him immune from crimes he might commit in the White House - he got that. In addition, he got their commitment that they would support an imperial presidency - and as a result doesn't really need to get anything more from Congress since in almost every area the Court has disregarded Congressional rights in favor of Trump's presidential powers. So at this point, he's probably also thinking that even if the 2026 elections are held (if he allows them) and go against him, previous experiences indicate that conviction through impeachment are unlikely. Meanwhile he's amassing billions for himself and family, destroying any part of government that might not like what he does, firing anyone in the military with power to stop him, and turning thousands of troops loose in our cities. With the destruction of our public health system, if a major pandemic occurs soon a sick and dying public will be too weak to do anything (as our decimated medical and scientific research will not be able to produce a vaccine in time - and if it does RFK jr can make sure it will neither get approved through the FDA nor distributed). The new media takeovers he's encouraging will destroy any major media opposition. Oh, the courts have stopped a few of his revenge moves but does that really diminish any of his power? So why does anyone think Trump is genuinely worried about next year's elections? that leaves the issue of what happens if there are major public insurrections.
I do think he's worried because he's pathologically insecure. He's clearly threatened by everything that makes him unpopular, like unaffordability or Epstein, but I agree there's a plan B in the works based on everything you pointed out.
Re: the Times of London piece on the horrifying “secret” part of the NSS, this part comes straight out John Mearsheimer:
“The unclassified security strategy set out how “the days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over”.
The classified version is said to explain that the goal of global hegemony was “the wrong thing to want and it wasn’t achievable”.
It is believed to say: “After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country. Yet the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests.”
This is the logic behind the focus on policing America’s “hemisphere”, giving it the right to pressure Venezuela as it has done in recent months by destroying alleged drug-running boats and building up a huge military presence in the region.”
Apparently, they believe that the current governments of most Western European countries directly threaten our interests, so we need to change them - whereas Russian imperial belligerence does not threaten our interests, so it should be rewarded.
What remains of the Republican Party is now finding out what it means to be the Trumplican party.
Trump has diverted conservative thought to authoritarian practice. We must redistrict states to try and ensure that there will be no opposition party. Indiana, with both senators and 7 of 9 representatives must redistrict to try and eliminate the need to have elections any longer.