I wanted to make a brief comment about Mona Charen's article about tariffs. She noted in the piece that deficits can sometimes be a function on different levels of saving between countries, something that may have relevance to current situation.
The US has typically saved at lower rates than many of our trading partners. One feature of that fact is that the US has more spendable funds because of the lower savings rate and also lower levels of investment because of the lower pool of savings. So if Trump wants to eliminate the trade deficit all he needs to do is to mandate that our trading partners cap the allowable level of savings per household at some level lower than ours. That would increase consumption in those countries and most likely lead to more imports. If for some reason Americans decided to save more that would increase available funds for investing for capital projects. That would accomplish what Trump wants without destroying the world trade system.
A second thought about this is that if Americans were so worried about trade deficits they could have boycotted imported products themselves. If they did that and bought more goods produced in the US deficits would have disappeared and there would have been a greater capital stock. For some unknown reason Americans have not voluntarily boycotted foreign goods (except briefly when they refused to eat french fries.) So maybe Trump is trying to give something to us that Americans do not want.
Don Bacon (R-Nebraska) is tying to introduce a bill in the house to reign in t***p's tariff powers and return them to congress where they belong. Given Mike Johnson, the only way this makes it to the floor is with a discharge petition, encourage your representative to back this.
Came upon this story this morning on NPR, apparently the National Weather Service (part of NOAA) is no longer issuing severe weather alerts in any language but English. Why? because a $1 million dollar contract with an AI service to provide the translations has elapsed and has not been renewed. Apparently that is too expensive to save the lives of nonenglish speaking Americans. You have to wonder, how long before it becomes too expensive to save the lives of any American.
I really loved the video about giving up the smart phone for a month. I didn't even get a smart phone until I was about 40 (my kids got them first, and I always said the best arrangement was someone else with a smart phone when you needed it), but I can't believe how dependent I am on it, and how anxious it makes me feel not to have one. And at the same time, I can feel the terrible effects on my attention span and mental health. I had already decided to leave it at home when I go to the Hands Off! protest today. This is possible because I haven't gone to apps for things like my bus pass and google pay, etc. But I was feeling anxious, and now I feel like it's going to be a big adventure!
I have been aware of the polarizing nature of the media and social media, but one thing he points out that hadn't really occurred to me is that it has become almost weird to ask for help--ask for directions, or the time, or where to get a cup of coffee nearby. Those are the little interactions that used to be an important part of our societal fabric that we almost don't realize are gone, along with humans at the checkout counter, talking to a gas station clerk when you pay, etc.
As it happens, I had a long conversation with a woman on the bus earlier this week. She had just moved to Minneapolis and was a bit dismayed by the snow flurries in April, which was surprising to me, since she told me she was Russian from the Ural Mountains, but turns out she has lived in Texas for more than a decade, so I guess she got soft : ). Anyway, she had written down the bus directions on a piece of paper in beautiful penmanship, and had some questions. Turned out we needed the same stop, where I was able to point her in the right direction (by showing her the map on my phone), and where to get the bus back. We didn't talk politics, but we talked about our kids and our lives at a fellow-well-met level and that's a normal human interaction we wouldn't have had if she had been using her smart phone.
Mona mentioned that Trump has claimed tariffs would resolve the federal budget deficit, joblessness, high taxes, war, and the trade deficit but neglected to mention child care. Remember how during the campaign, Trump claimed that his tariffs easily would pay for child care? He's a regular laugh riot.
That’s part of the disconnect. If the tariffs were just to get negotiations going, how can they plug $600 billion into the revenue line for the budget purposes? I know, I know, they can fabricate anything they want in putting the budget legislation together.
This week The Bulwark staff stepped up to a new level of keeping us informed with clear & honest reporting, helpful analysis, and spirited, righteous opinions.
Tremendous effort during a challenging week. And a lively community commenting too 🙂
Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It comes from the inability of people to recognize their own lack of ability, i.e. they think they are much smarter than they really are.
Congrats to Linda Chavez. I am a huge fan of Garry Gasparov and look forward to what he is doing.
I wanted to make a brief comment about Mona Charen's article about tariffs. She noted in the piece that deficits can sometimes be a function on different levels of saving between countries, something that may have relevance to current situation.
The US has typically saved at lower rates than many of our trading partners. One feature of that fact is that the US has more spendable funds because of the lower savings rate and also lower levels of investment because of the lower pool of savings. So if Trump wants to eliminate the trade deficit all he needs to do is to mandate that our trading partners cap the allowable level of savings per household at some level lower than ours. That would increase consumption in those countries and most likely lead to more imports. If for some reason Americans decided to save more that would increase available funds for investing for capital projects. That would accomplish what Trump wants without destroying the world trade system.
A second thought about this is that if Americans were so worried about trade deficits they could have boycotted imported products themselves. If they did that and bought more goods produced in the US deficits would have disappeared and there would have been a greater capital stock. For some unknown reason Americans have not voluntarily boycotted foreign goods (except briefly when they refused to eat french fries.) So maybe Trump is trying to give something to us that Americans do not want.
Mona - loved your article. You explained the folly of tariffs in a compelling way, easy to understand and to repeat. I appreciate you!
Don Bacon (R-Nebraska) is tying to introduce a bill in the house to reign in t***p's tariff powers and return them to congress where they belong. Given Mike Johnson, the only way this makes it to the floor is with a discharge petition, encourage your representative to back this.
Came upon this story this morning on NPR, apparently the National Weather Service (part of NOAA) is no longer issuing severe weather alerts in any language but English. Why? because a $1 million dollar contract with an AI service to provide the translations has elapsed and has not been renewed. Apparently that is too expensive to save the lives of nonenglish speaking Americans. You have to wonder, how long before it becomes too expensive to save the lives of any American.
Maybe Donald Trump doesn’t like coffee, but we the people do.
I really loved the video about giving up the smart phone for a month. I didn't even get a smart phone until I was about 40 (my kids got them first, and I always said the best arrangement was someone else with a smart phone when you needed it), but I can't believe how dependent I am on it, and how anxious it makes me feel not to have one. And at the same time, I can feel the terrible effects on my attention span and mental health. I had already decided to leave it at home when I go to the Hands Off! protest today. This is possible because I haven't gone to apps for things like my bus pass and google pay, etc. But I was feeling anxious, and now I feel like it's going to be a big adventure!
I have been aware of the polarizing nature of the media and social media, but one thing he points out that hadn't really occurred to me is that it has become almost weird to ask for help--ask for directions, or the time, or where to get a cup of coffee nearby. Those are the little interactions that used to be an important part of our societal fabric that we almost don't realize are gone, along with humans at the checkout counter, talking to a gas station clerk when you pay, etc.
As it happens, I had a long conversation with a woman on the bus earlier this week. She had just moved to Minneapolis and was a bit dismayed by the snow flurries in April, which was surprising to me, since she told me she was Russian from the Ural Mountains, but turns out she has lived in Texas for more than a decade, so I guess she got soft : ). Anyway, she had written down the bus directions on a piece of paper in beautiful penmanship, and had some questions. Turned out we needed the same stop, where I was able to point her in the right direction (by showing her the map on my phone), and where to get the bus back. We didn't talk politics, but we talked about our kids and our lives at a fellow-well-met level and that's a normal human interaction we wouldn't have had if she had been using her smart phone.
I miss all of the good article recs you had during the week! But you’re doing a great job, keep it up
Over in the Chatroom, we are discussing what folks are seeing economically after Trump rolled out his tariffs. Come stop in and share and chat with fellow B+ members: https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/eabef813-0f79-4ae1-95bc-e95d7353c50f
Will have to check later. Got my poster ready and heading out to march.
How did yours go?
Mona mentioned that Trump has claimed tariffs would resolve the federal budget deficit, joblessness, high taxes, war, and the trade deficit but neglected to mention child care. Remember how during the campaign, Trump claimed that his tariffs easily would pay for child care? He's a regular laugh riot.
That’s part of the disconnect. If the tariffs were just to get negotiations going, how can they plug $600 billion into the revenue line for the budget purposes? I know, I know, they can fabricate anything they want in putting the budget legislation together.
This week The Bulwark staff stepped up to a new level of keeping us informed with clear & honest reporting, helpful analysis, and spirited, righteous opinions.
Tremendous effort during a challenging week. And a lively community commenting too 🙂
Together!
Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It comes from the inability of people to recognize their own lack of ability, i.e. they think they are much smarter than they really are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
Ooo I have names!