Two Things to Watch for in the Midterm Results
Plus, What Ails the American Male?
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KIMBERLY WEHLE: Case After Case After Case: The GOP Keeps Suing to Toss Out Midterm Ballots.
The midterms have sparked debate as to whether this election is a referendum on the future of American democracy. Historian Michael Beschloss and President Joe Biden have sounded the alarm, while law professor Jonathan Turley and commentator Jonah Goldberg insist that democracy is not on the ballot. (āYouāre all losing your frickinā minds,ā Goldberg writes.) But at least from a legal standpoint, this is no ordinary election. According to Democracy Docket, GOP-aligned groups have filed nearly five times the number of anti-voting lawsuits that they brought in 2021 and three times the number filed in 2020. And this time around, the fight is not focused on whether folks should be allowed vote. Itās about canceling votes after theyāve been cast, particularly if via dropbox or absentee ballot, the use of which was popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic. And the GOP has opened new frontiers on criminal penalties if voters make mistakes.
In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantisās novel āOffice of Election Crimes and Securityā is already having an effect on turnout, particularly among black voters, fifteen of whom have already been arrested for allegedly (but inadvertently and in some instances on the advice of election officials) voting when they did not qualify. The Florida legislature has made it illegal to deliver, or even to possess, more than two absentee ballots for people who are not close relatives; errors can trigger a $5,000 fine and up to five years in prison. New laws also limit the ability of third-party groups to register votersā96,000 were aided in 2018, down to 31,000 so far this yearāelse they face up to $50,000 in fines. These and other new ballot restriction rules disproportionately hurt black voters, who are mostly Democrats. āI have been one who has collected hundreds of ballots, all legitimate ballots, to help persons and make it convenient for them to vote,ā La Von Bracy, a director of a religious nonprofit, told the Washington Post. āNow Iām getting calls from people saying āMs. Bracy, can you come get my ballot?ā I say, āSorry, no. Iām not going to risk getting a police record.āā
MONA CHAREN: What Ails the American Male?
Throughout most of Richard Reeves excellent new book, Of Boys and Men, I wasnāt just nodding along, I was foot-stomping. Too little has been written about the troubles of boys and men. I addressed many of these issues in my 2018 book Sex Matters and am always glad to see more hands to the oar (though Reeves and I see certain things differently, which Iāll come to).
As a culture, we remain stubbornly attached to the notion that girls and women need encouragement, special programs, and remedial measures to bring them into full equality with males in school, in the workplace, in sportsāwell, pretty much everywhere. There is nothing wrong with that, but as Reeves and a handful of others have observed over the last two decades, this focus is significantly out of date.
Womenās rights and hijab rules are at the center of widespread protests in Iran, but the demonstrations quickly evolved and are now the most serious threat to the regime in decades. Barbara Slavin joins Charlie Sykes on todayās podcast.
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CATHY YOUNG: Yes, Democrats Have Called Some Elections Illegitimate. GOP Election Denialism Is Far Worse.
When Democrats voice dismay at MAGA Republicansā belief that Donald Trump got cheated out of victory in the 2020 election, a common response goes: āWell, Democrats do it too!ā But Hillary! But Stacey Abrams! But Al Gore! But Jimmy Carter! Anti-anti-Trump types are willing to concede that Trumpās claims about the 2020 āstealā were baseless, but they insist that the problem exists on Both Sidesā¢, and that itās rank partisanshipānot to mention hypocrisyāto claim that the Trumpified GOPās election denialism should be uniquely disqualifying.
There are many instances in which a nuanced view of an issue gets unfairly slammed as ābothsidesism.ā This isnāt one of them.
THEODORE R. JOHNSON: Two Things to Watch for in the Midterm Results.
The midterm elections are at last upon usāand with them, mounting anxiety and anticipation over the possible outcomes. Many commentators, in addition to partaking of the usual horserace excitement of calling winners in individual contests, will keep their eyes on specific aspects of our democratic system such as voter turnout and party-line versus split-ticket voting. Others will critique the accuracy of pre-election polling or look for evidence of demographic shifts. The one thing weāll all be watching are the losersāwill they refuse to accept the results and spur a new cycle of conspiracy theories around election fraud? Or will they concede civilly?
There are two key indicators Iāll be watching to get a sense of whatās in store for our nation and our democracy.
šØOVERTIME šØ
See you on the field! Itās game day. In the interest of full disclosure, there was one race on my ballot today. (There were 45 on my sisterās in Cleveland!) Yesli Vega vs. Abigail Spanberger. I voted for Spanberger.
Be sure to vote. Hereās your cheat sheet.
Predictions: I donāt know what tonight holds for either party. Hereās what I said on MSNBC. I think that it can go a lot of different ways. So many races are too close. But I think the best composite is The Economist forecast. If a race isnāt mentioned below, assume that I think incumbent wins.
Definite winners: Mike DeWine, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore in OH, PA, MI and MD for Gov. Same with Brian Kemp in GA. In the Senate: Warnock in GA, and Kelly in AZ.
Likely winners: OāDea in Colorado, Hassan in NH and Cortez Masto in NV. Sadly, probably Kari Lake in AZ.
Toss ups: John Fetterman and Tim Ryan in PA and OH.
Definite losers: McMullin in Utah. But itāll be closer than you could have predicted.
Where does that put us? Probably a 51-49 GOP Senate. But a lot can happen!
Meanwhile, in Missouriā¦ Officials are stupidly fighting the feds.
This is why you need to be concerned about Deep Fakes. Itās only gonna get worse.
A preview of our illiberal future. Itās not great.
Meanwhile, from the Twitter Apocalypseā¦ The site is gonna die.
Democrats and denialā¦ Catherine Rampell has thoughtsā¦.
Thatās it for me. Tech support questions? Email members@thebulwark.com. Questions for me? Respond to this message.
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