The Bulwark

The Bulwark

Home
Shows
Newsletters
Chat
Special Projects
Events
Founders
Store
Archive
About

Share this post

The Bulwark
The Bulwark
What’s at Stake in Germany’s Elections
User's avatar
Discover more from The Bulwark
The Bulwark is home to Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Bill Kristol, JVL, Sam Stein, and more. We are the largest pro-democracy bundle on Substack for news and analysis on politics and culture—supported by a community built on good-faith.
Over 839,000 subscribers
Already have an account? Sign in

What’s at Stake in Germany’s Elections

In this weekend’s vote, Europe’s largest economic power decides whether to decisively re-enter history or continue its risky somnolence.

Joshua Livestro
Feb 21, 2025
95

Share this post

The Bulwark
The Bulwark
What’s at Stake in Germany’s Elections
9
Share
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) greets opposition leader Friedrich Merz before a televised debate on February 19, 2025 in Berlin. (Photo by Michael Kappeler/Pool/Getty Images)

FOR MOST OF THE LAST HALF CENTURY, GERMANY has been a dominant force in Europe. Its economic strength, its large population, and its strategic location have made it a powerhouse in the affairs of the continent. But the geopolitical landscape has been shifting and old certainties crumbling, and some of the assumptions on which German dominance was built no longer hold. The illusion of a world governed by mutually beneficial commercial relationships has given way to the harsh reality of a renewed great power competition, leaving Berlin with the task of rebuilding the very foundations of its security and prosperity. As the country prepares to head to the polls this Sunday, it faces a reckoning—one that will determine not just its own future, but that of the European Union as a whole.


AFTER THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL, a reunited Germany wrapped itself in the comforting blanket of ‘perpetual peace.’ In the decades that followed, it outsourced its energy production to Russia, its economic growth to China, and its military security to the United States. It convinced itself that this was fine because, in a globalized world, this kind of interdependence would only help to strengthen peaceful relationships between countries—a recycled version of the Enlightenment ‘commerce equals peace’ theory.

In reality, interdependence turned out to be mere dependence. By outsourcing its prosperity and security, Germany, and by extension all of Europe, had put its fate in the hands of others. This worked for a while, providing Germans with a sugar rush of artificial stability. Eventually though, it turned out commerce did not automatically guarantee peace and prosperity. The dependent relationships Germany had created became so many anchors threatening to drag the country down.

Things started to unravel three years ago when Vladimir Putin decided to roll the dice on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Within a year, oil and gas imports from Russia had virtually dried up, forcing Germany to scramble for a solution. This was only the beginning of its troubles. The combined pressures of the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic convinced European policymakers that the EU needed to embrace the concept of strategic autonomy. This required it to become less dependent on potentially faithless actors like Russia and China. Germany suddenly faced strong pressures to reduce its reliance on the Chinese export market. To the scramble for alternative energy supplies was now added a second scramble for new markets for its high-tech products. The net result of these two shocks has been a flatlining economy, with no immediate prospects for a resumption of growth.

Last week, a third crisis was added to the mix in the form of the Trump administration’s seeming readiness to cut all military ties with Europe. Speeches by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance delivered a sobering ‘Don’t count on us’ message, making it clear President Donald Trump has no plans to commit to European security. Worse, he seems willing to throw Ukraine under the bus and openly speculates about evacuating American troops currently acting as a guarantee against Russian invasion in the Baltics.

The times may be uncertain, but our commitment to liberal democracy remains unshaken. Keep up with all our independent journalism by signing up for a free or paid subscription today:

Germany had long postponed dealing with its twin traumas of militarism and hyperinflation by letting America take care of Europe’s security, both the organizing and the financing. The deal seemed to work for both sides, seeing the former aggressor Germany embedded in the European Union and NATO while giving the United States an important bridgehead on the western flank of the Eurasian continent, a crucial part of its global military strategy. The one downside was that it left the Germans with an army that, in the words of one Eastern European diplomat, resembled “a pension fund with tanks” more than a credible fighting force. But since ‘perpetual peace’ was meant to last, well, forever, this wasn’t thought to be a serious issue.

The lack of preparedness for military geopolitical shocks was suddenly exposed by the Trump administration’s apparent desire to rip up the North Atlantic Treaty and his open embrace of Russia. Germany now faces the prospect of not just having to dramatically increase its military capacity and send German troops into harm’s way in Ukraine, but of paying for these things themselves by breaking their own golden rule on deficit spending.


GIVEN THESE SEISMIC EVENTS, IT IS NO WONDER the electorate is restless to the point of embracing extremist options. The neo-Nazi Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), once a far-right fringe movement, has surged in the polls as economic malaise and geopolitical uncertainty drive voters toward radical alternatives. It tempts them with the suggestion that they can somehow return to the status quo ante, a past when Germany was white (racism is very much part of AfD’s platform), affluent, and most of all: unbothered by geopolitical concerns.

Co-leader and main candidate of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party Alice Weidel looks on during the TV debate with the main candidates in Berlin on February 17, 2025. (Photo by Ralf Hirschberger/AFP via Getty Images)

More than anything, these voters long for a return to the era of perpetual peace. Hence also the party’s promise of re-establishing links with Putin, even if that means sacrificing Ukrainian territory and overlooking Russian crimes against humanity. To these voters, the postwar German mantra of Nie Wieder —“Never Again”—clearly does not mean no more Holocaust-like atrocities but no more conflict with Russia.

The polls suggest up to a quarter of the electorate might back the AfD, a number perhaps boosted by the White House openly shilling for it in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Still, there is a good chance that the center will hold, enabling the formation of a broad coalition. If victorious, the likely new chancellor—the Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz—will face a herculean task: reviving the German economy while reasserting the country’s leadership in Europe, and safeguarding Europe’s control of its own destiny, starting in Ukraine. This means committing to serious defense spending, creating a viable industrial policy based on new export markets, and strengthening the European Union as a geopolitical force capable of holding its own in the new great power competition.

Germany’s absence from European leadership in recent years has been particularly glaring. While Paris and Warsaw have taken increasingly assertive stances on European security, Berlin has remained hesitant, unable to reconcile the demands of its coalition government with the necessity of action. This paralysis must end. The EU was founded on the idea that economic and political unity would safeguard peace and prosperity. But unity requires leadership. As the largest member state in the EU, it’s not just Germany’s privilege but its duty to provide it. Sunday’s election will show whether German voters agree, or whether they would in fact prefer to continue their long holiday from history.

Take a moment to share this article with your friends and followers on social media.

Share


Subscribe to The Bulwark

Hundreds of thousands of paid subscribers
The Bulwark is home to Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Bill Kristol, JVL, Sam Stein, and more. We are the largest pro-democracy bundle on Substack for news and analysis on politics and culture—supported by a community built on good-faith.
bwelchmiami's avatar
Dan Stoyanov's avatar
Jennifer's avatar
Dargonth's avatar
Wisley Lau's avatar
95 Likes∙
9 Restacks
95

Share this post

The Bulwark
The Bulwark
What’s at Stake in Germany’s Elections
9
Share
A guest post by
Joshua Livestro
Subscribe to Joshua
The American Age Is Over
Emergency Triad: The United States commits imperial suicide.
Apr 3 • 
Jonathan V. Last
5,384

Share this post

The Bulwark
The Bulwark
The American Age Is Over
1,487
How to Think (and Act) Like a Dissident Movement
AOC, solidarity, and people power.
Mar 24 • 
Jonathan V. Last
4,140

Share this post

The Bulwark
The Bulwark
How to Think (and Act) Like a Dissident Movement
1,167
Chaos, Cowards, and Alligator Alcatraz
The gang goes live on this edition of The Next Level.
Jul 2 • 
Tim Miller
, 
Jonathan V. Last
, and 
Sarah Longwell
2,498

Share this post

The Bulwark
The Bulwark
Chaos, Cowards, and Alligator Alcatraz
699
1:06:42

Ready for more?

© 2025 Bulwark Media
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share