The problem is that a lot of the GoP electorate is firmly behind what constitutes the Trumpian-MAGA agenda. Their problem isn't with the authoritarianism or the white Christian nationalism, or making things easier and cheaper for the plutocrats through tax cuts and deregulation--the problem is (as you point out) Trump costs them at the …
The problem is that a lot of the GoP electorate is firmly behind what constitutes the Trumpian-MAGA agenda. Their problem isn't with the authoritarianism or the white Christian nationalism, or making things easier and cheaper for the plutocrats through tax cuts and deregulation--the problem is (as you point out) Trump costs them at the polls.
That's it.
So, regardless of who the GoP nominee is, you are going to get some variation of that whole thing.
Sure the election denialism is probably going to fade a bit--until Trump loses his first primary, anyway.
Ultimately, the GoP may be willing to turn away from Trump (if not Trumpism). But I doubt they have the courage to do the things necessary.
And while they might be willing to turn away, Trump is not willing to let them go--and THAT is the actual problem for the GoP. They have this tar baby stuck to them that they are not going to be easily rid of.
Unless Trump's grip on the MAGA electorate wanes, it's going to be hard for anyone to challenge him seriously. Ron DeSantis, for example, might decide that it's not in his interest to get into a brawl with Trump now when all he has to do is wait 4 years.
The problem for republicans will be extracating themselves from MAGAism. As Tim pointed out the other day, that would involve the kind of courage none of the elected Rs have shown so far - the willingness to lose an election to save the party from its extremists.
Regardless of their nominee, I don't think they win the WH in 2024. Inflation is widely and credibly believed to return to a normal 2%-ish sometime next year. And then there's time for the upcoming layoffs in the tech sectors to rebound. However bloody their primary becomes, if trump loses, I can never imagine him quietly saying "the voters have spoken". More likely he targets the GOP as his BIGLIEST enemies, over the Dems, and some percentage of the 30-40% Always Trump MAGAts will stick with him and be outraged. They will follow trump's urging to either stay home or vote against the GOP, and even if that is just 10-15% of the 30-40%, it's enough to swing the election.
The problem is that a lot of the GoP electorate is firmly behind what constitutes the Trumpian-MAGA agenda. Their problem isn't with the authoritarianism or the white Christian nationalism, or making things easier and cheaper for the plutocrats through tax cuts and deregulation--the problem is (as you point out) Trump costs them at the polls.
That's it.
So, regardless of who the GoP nominee is, you are going to get some variation of that whole thing.
Sure the election denialism is probably going to fade a bit--until Trump loses his first primary, anyway.
Ultimately, the GoP may be willing to turn away from Trump (if not Trumpism). But I doubt they have the courage to do the things necessary.
And while they might be willing to turn away, Trump is not willing to let them go--and THAT is the actual problem for the GoP. They have this tar baby stuck to them that they are not going to be easily rid of.
Unless Trump's grip on the MAGA electorate wanes, it's going to be hard for anyone to challenge him seriously. Ron DeSantis, for example, might decide that it's not in his interest to get into a brawl with Trump now when all he has to do is wait 4 years.
The problem for republicans will be extracating themselves from MAGAism. As Tim pointed out the other day, that would involve the kind of courage none of the elected Rs have shown so far - the willingness to lose an election to save the party from its extremists.
Regardless of their nominee, I don't think they win the WH in 2024. Inflation is widely and credibly believed to return to a normal 2%-ish sometime next year. And then there's time for the upcoming layoffs in the tech sectors to rebound. However bloody their primary becomes, if trump loses, I can never imagine him quietly saying "the voters have spoken". More likely he targets the GOP as his BIGLIEST enemies, over the Dems, and some percentage of the 30-40% Always Trump MAGAts will stick with him and be outraged. They will follow trump's urging to either stay home or vote against the GOP, and even if that is just 10-15% of the 30-40%, it's enough to swing the election.
We can only hope.