Sinocism’s Bill Bishop joins JVL on WTF 2.0 to talk the China threat, Trump’s inaction on the problem and how the dismantling of USAID threatens the US’ power around the world.
This was fascinating. I lived in China from 2008 - 2010.
Aside from some weird bureaucracy, my experience with Chinese immigration is nothing like what ICE is doing today. I never had to open my laptop or phone and show the contents or fear that I would be denied entry with a valid visa.
Wow! Bill Bishop! I've been avidly reading his work since both he and I lived in China. I've been a subscriber of his newsletter from the day it started (same with The Bulwark, now that I think of it!). He is the best expert on China, in terms of up-to-date, level-headed commentary.
I was interested specifically in the Myanmar earthquake and how that would be handled. I know in the immediate aftermath that Trump said they would be sending aide. The Chinese certainly have. I guess that was just BS? This is such a disastrous administration
I'm no Bill Bishop, but I know China pretty well, and I have some thoughts.
There was a time when China could have been democratized, but Tiananmen Square ended any prospect of that happening. Zhao Ziyang, who at the time was the head of the CCP, supported gradually democratizing in the same way Deng's early reforms had gradually "reformed and opened up" the Chinese economy.
The Tiananmen Square protest 1989 (along with other, lesser ones throughout the country) initially looked like a chance to move forward with that agenda. If they had made their point and then left, I think it's likely that's how Deng and the other top leaders would have seen it. The leaders in fact made some minor concessions to the demonstrators, hoping that would end it.
It didn't, and Deng became convinced that they were threatening the entire CCP-led system. That's when the June 5th crackdown occurred, and all hope of peaceful democratic reform died. Zhao Ziyang was removed from power and spent the rest of his life (1989-2005) living in strict house arrest.
Since then, the Chinese government has as a fundamental principle that dissent = threat to their existence. They've spread that message to the populace, with such effectiveness that almost no one I met in 15 years living in China believed that democracy would be good for China.
*If* the CCP government collapsed, which I don't think it will, then the odds that a charismatic democratic leader such as Sun Yat-Sen (leader of the revolution that took down the last Imperial dynasty) would arise are vanishingly small. What is much more likely is that another authoritarian regime would take the place of the CCP-led government.
I would say Putin's Russia is more likely than China, because China has much more to lose. Also, China has always seen itself as the "Middle Kingdom," the most civilized and advanced country in the world, so they have very little interest in ruling over barbarians like us. If they in fact try to take Taiwan by force, that would be the one clear WW3 scenario I could imagine coming from China. Putin, on the other hand, clearly has designs on Europe that could very easily lead to a world war.
All that said, China is the #2 most likely cause, and that's reason enough to "wake up and strengthen our relationships with Allies," as you aptly put it.
Didn’t teach much. A lot of “one hand” “other hand”. Kind of a nothing burger. A lot of words though
Really liked this show. Bring this dude back anytime. Tom Friedman also has interesting insight into China. Thanks!
JVL- Boom! Get this guy back periodically. One of my top 10 favorite episodes. Bill is brilliant!
Amen to all the adulation below. That was great.
Wow. Thank you so much for sharing him JVL
This was fascinating. I lived in China from 2008 - 2010.
Aside from some weird bureaucracy, my experience with Chinese immigration is nothing like what ICE is doing today. I never had to open my laptop or phone and show the contents or fear that I would be denied entry with a valid visa.
this was excellent. have him back any time.
Love Bill Bishop!
Wow! Bill Bishop! I've been avidly reading his work since both he and I lived in China. I've been a subscriber of his newsletter from the day it started (same with The Bulwark, now that I think of it!). He is the best expert on China, in terms of up-to-date, level-headed commentary.
This is an amazing listen. Thank you, fellas.
I was interested specifically in the Myanmar earthquake and how that would be handled. I know in the immediate aftermath that Trump said they would be sending aide. The Chinese certainly have. I guess that was just BS? This is such a disastrous administration
What's easier? Democratizing maga or democratizing China?
I'm no Bill Bishop, but I know China pretty well, and I have some thoughts.
There was a time when China could have been democratized, but Tiananmen Square ended any prospect of that happening. Zhao Ziyang, who at the time was the head of the CCP, supported gradually democratizing in the same way Deng's early reforms had gradually "reformed and opened up" the Chinese economy.
The Tiananmen Square protest 1989 (along with other, lesser ones throughout the country) initially looked like a chance to move forward with that agenda. If they had made their point and then left, I think it's likely that's how Deng and the other top leaders would have seen it. The leaders in fact made some minor concessions to the demonstrators, hoping that would end it.
It didn't, and Deng became convinced that they were threatening the entire CCP-led system. That's when the June 5th crackdown occurred, and all hope of peaceful democratic reform died. Zhao Ziyang was removed from power and spent the rest of his life (1989-2005) living in strict house arrest.
Since then, the Chinese government has as a fundamental principle that dissent = threat to their existence. They've spread that message to the populace, with such effectiveness that almost no one I met in 15 years living in China believed that democracy would be good for China.
*If* the CCP government collapsed, which I don't think it will, then the odds that a charismatic democratic leader such as Sun Yat-Sen (leader of the revolution that took down the last Imperial dynasty) would arise are vanishingly small. What is much more likely is that another authoritarian regime would take the place of the CCP-led government.
Very important information! I'm so glad I tuned in. Thank you!
I have read scientist and researchers are going to Canada and Europe. Trump is scaring them away. Same with college. Trump is doing so much damage.
I would say Putin's Russia is more likely than China, because China has much more to lose. Also, China has always seen itself as the "Middle Kingdom," the most civilized and advanced country in the world, so they have very little interest in ruling over barbarians like us. If they in fact try to take Taiwan by force, that would be the one clear WW3 scenario I could imagine coming from China. Putin, on the other hand, clearly has designs on Europe that could very easily lead to a world war.
All that said, China is the #2 most likely cause, and that's reason enough to "wake up and strengthen our relationships with Allies," as you aptly put it.
We are, in the Chinese government’s eyes.