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SPEAKER 1
Hey guys, it's JVL from The Bulwark, here with the great Bill Bishop from Cynicism. Cynicism? Cynicism, but that's okay. Call it what you want, just be nice. And we were just chatting about, Bill was Substack number one, first outside writer on Substack in 2017. Did you come from Axios? No.
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SPEAKER 2
So I had my own blog that I had turned into a newsletter and I was sort of casting around for how to turn into a business. I'd been talking with Ben Thompson over to Techery and looked at his tech stack, which was worked, but at the time was a bit kludgy and I have no technical skills.
0:43
And so I was about to launch what he had in the sort of mid spring of 2017 and then had some family issues. So I pushed it off. And, you know, you never want to launch that newsletter in August, so to speak. And in that interim period, I heard from Hamish, who I'd known from his reporting days.

Sinocism’s Bill Bishop joins JVL on WTF 2.0 to talk the China threat, Trump’s inaction on the problem and how the dismantling of USAID threatens the US’ power around the world.

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WTF 2.0 is a pop-up show on Substack during the first 100 days of second Trump administration. Watch previous episodes, here. As always: Watch, listen, and leave a comment. Bulwark+ Takes is home to short videos, livestreams and event archives exclusively for Bulwark+ members.


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Discussion about this video

User's avatar
Chad's avatar

Didn’t teach much. A lot of “one hand” “other hand”. Kind of a nothing burger. A lot of words though

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CTremains's avatar

Really liked this show. Bring this dude back anytime. Tom Friedman also has interesting insight into China. Thanks!

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Jude R.'s avatar

JVL- Boom! Get this guy back periodically. One of my top 10 favorite episodes. Bill is brilliant!

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Oregon Larry's avatar

Amen to all the adulation below. That was great.

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Alex's avatar

Wow. Thank you so much for sharing him JVL

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Steve B.'s avatar

This was fascinating. I lived in China from 2008 - 2010.

Aside from some weird bureaucracy, my experience with Chinese immigration is nothing like what ICE is doing today. I never had to open my laptop or phone and show the contents or fear that I would be denied entry with a valid visa.

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PD's avatar

this was excellent. have him back any time.

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kate mcculloch's avatar

Love Bill Bishop!

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Robert Garmong's avatar

Wow! Bill Bishop! I've been avidly reading his work since both he and I lived in China. I've been a subscriber of his newsletter from the day it started (same with The Bulwark, now that I think of it!). He is the best expert on China, in terms of up-to-date, level-headed commentary.

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Steward Beckham's avatar

This is an amazing listen. Thank you, fellas.

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RochelleTheBelle's avatar

I was interested specifically in the Myanmar earthquake and how that would be handled. I know in the immediate aftermath that Trump said they would be sending aide. The Chinese certainly have. I guess that was just BS? This is such a disastrous administration

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Erin Flanagan's avatar

What's easier? Democratizing maga or democratizing China?

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Robert Garmong's avatar

I'm no Bill Bishop, but I know China pretty well, and I have some thoughts.

There was a time when China could have been democratized, but Tiananmen Square ended any prospect of that happening. Zhao Ziyang, who at the time was the head of the CCP, supported gradually democratizing in the same way Deng's early reforms had gradually "reformed and opened up" the Chinese economy.

The Tiananmen Square protest 1989 (along with other, lesser ones throughout the country) initially looked like a chance to move forward with that agenda. If they had made their point and then left, I think it's likely that's how Deng and the other top leaders would have seen it. The leaders in fact made some minor concessions to the demonstrators, hoping that would end it.

It didn't, and Deng became convinced that they were threatening the entire CCP-led system. That's when the June 5th crackdown occurred, and all hope of peaceful democratic reform died. Zhao Ziyang was removed from power and spent the rest of his life (1989-2005) living in strict house arrest.

Since then, the Chinese government has as a fundamental principle that dissent = threat to their existence. They've spread that message to the populace, with such effectiveness that almost no one I met in 15 years living in China believed that democracy would be good for China.

*If* the CCP government collapsed, which I don't think it will, then the odds that a charismatic democratic leader such as Sun Yat-Sen (leader of the revolution that took down the last Imperial dynasty) would arise are vanishingly small. What is much more likely is that another authoritarian regime would take the place of the CCP-led government.

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Roni Windle's avatar

Very important information! I'm so glad I tuned in. Thank you!

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Sue Dalling's avatar

I have read scientist and researchers are going to Canada and Europe. Trump is scaring them away. Same with college. Trump is doing so much damage.

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David Wood's avatar

China is the most likely cause of WW3, in my opinion. We really need to wake up and strengthen our relationships with Allies not destroy them. I don’t trust this administration at all.

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Robert Garmong's avatar

I would say Putin's Russia is more likely than China, because China has much more to lose. Also, China has always seen itself as the "Middle Kingdom," the most civilized and advanced country in the world, so they have very little interest in ruling over barbarians like us. If they in fact try to take Taiwan by force, that would be the one clear WW3 scenario I could imagine coming from China. Putin, on the other hand, clearly has designs on Europe that could very easily lead to a world war.

All that said, China is the #2 most likely cause, and that's reason enough to "wake up and strengthen our relationships with Allies," as you aptly put it.

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David Wood's avatar

We are not barbarians.

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0:43
And so I was about to launch what he had in the sort of mid spring of 2017 and then had some family issues. So I pushed it off. And, you know, you never want to launch that newsletter in August, so to speak. And in that interim period, I heard from Hamish, who I'd known from his reporting days.