One thing I'd like to see Charlie is brining in someone with real expertise to discuss what Civil War 2.0 would look like. I simply can't imagine a scenario where a legitimate Civil War breaks out. For a war to happen, you have to have two sides that are capable of sustaining a conflict with each other over a meaningful period of time a…
One thing I'd like to see Charlie is brining in someone with real expertise to discuss what Civil War 2.0 would look like. I simply can't imagine a scenario where a legitimate Civil War breaks out. For a war to happen, you have to have two sides that are capable of sustaining a conflict with each other over a meaningful period of time and to take an hold territory.
Most of the people on social media who are saber rattling seem to expect some kind of domestic insurgency where pockets of right wing militias incite violence. I don't see this as a war as much as a series of domestic terrorism events where law enforcement turns up and deals with the situation.
In order to have a real shooting war, MAGA would have to field a fighting force capable going toe to toe with the US Armed Forces. How does that happen?
1. The Armed forces fracture into two groups - Loyalists and Extremists.
2. The governors of Red states declare independence and draft a military force.
3. Some 3rd party (China? Russia?) intervenes to provide MAGA with the resources & manpower to fight.
So I just don't see any of these scenarios being realistic either alone or in combination. Are there really millions of people in the US who are willing to leave the security of their family, jobs and communities behind to go to war against the US military? Does anyone think that Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, when push comes to shove, are going to resign from Congress and have the spine to put their lives on the line by joining a rebel army / government?
It would be really enlightening to get someone with military experience to talk about what the actual threat level is for a civil war. Just because some guy on Twitter says "Tomorrow is War, Sleep Well." doesn't mean that guy is actually picking up a gun and risking his life.
Maybe not a civil war, which you're right is hard to see, but asymmetrical warfare / terrorism is an awful possibility to contemplate. Putting aside ideologies or even the right of things, Ireland, South Africa, and Israel are all examples of places where insurgents never assembled a viable military force against a formidable military power, but wrought havoc for years. Something to consider and fear, at least in terms of living through and with it.
I also find it very hard to imagine asymmetrical warfare / terrorism working for any extended period of time in the country with the most advanced military, law enforcement institutions and surveillance capabilities the world has ever known. Especially when (unlike Ireland, etc.) the terrorists will not be supported by their local community along ethnic / religious grounds due to actual persecution (as opposed to the weak/fake claims of persecution MAGA has now).
This is what I hang my hope on when it comes to Ireland as an example. And that's not to say that we can't have some of the troubles, but that I don't think it gets sustained for anywhere near as long if it happens.
My biggest concern is really for the next time a Republican is in the whitehouse and the Republican running loses. That's where uncertainty about the legitimacy of who is giving the orders can lead to fracturing of police and military. If J6 had been a bit more 'successful' and Trump declares martial law or something, does the military just stop taking his orders on Jan 20th when there's 'uncertainty', no official inauguration, etc., etc.?
/2 I called my brother who is a lifelong Republican in deep red MAGA-ville West Texas and asked him if he would go to war for Trump. He said - "I have to get my crop planted and the girls have a stock show next weekend, so I can't fit civil war into my schedule right now."
He's a funny guy, but there is a major kernal of truth in that statement. How many Americans - even the most aggressive MAGA fans on Twitter - are willing to risk their lives and the lives of their kids and grandkids to go to war? I think the answer is - none of the sane ones.
Are the millions of insane people out there? Sure. But should we be really worried about the people who wear Trump t-shirts to MAGA rallies being any kind of threat to a SWAT team or a National Guard unit - even if thousands of them show up with AR 15s and pipe bombs?
If there was going to be an armed insurrection, wouldn't it have happened on Jan6 when they believed the election had been stolen?
I think its all a huge game of chicken. And the cowards are the people on the MAGA side. The only people truly willing to go to war and die for their beliefs by the millions are the anti-MAGA people.
not only that but he likely has over a million dollars in land and equipment at risk. The ones talking about civil war are (as grand dad have said) the ones who "don't have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of"
If you have a big truck, an AR 15 and thousands of rounds of ammo, you by definition have a pot to piss in. There has never been a civil war in a modern first world country because no one who is capable of effectively fighting a war is willing to risk all the benefits they have due to living in a first world country. If we are talking about some nutty fringe militia people, my money is on the US military to win that fight. 100 times out of 100.
Most folks are more in love with the idea than with carrying out the plan. It is a bit like something that happened to me a few years ago. My pickup backfired as I parked it in my driveway. It was an old neighborhood with a lot of crime. For some reason I ended up with 10 police officers on my front porch weapons drawn and me in handcuffs.
Telling the story to my bil an NRA buff, he told me that was why we needed the second amendment. I just laughed and replyed"the problem with that is I wasn't interested in committing suicide"
Sorry, when it comes to the cost it takes to get that crop in, yeah bubba and his hocked to the eyebrows pickup truck is still looking for a place to piss. He is not alone the little gangbanger with his multiple weapons is also almost homeless.
So not sure how much you know about farming (maybe a lot?) but even though my brother has a lot of money sunk in land and equipment, its not liquid. You can't ever sell land or equipment to make rent or you eventually don't have a farm left. My brother is a LOT closer to having no pot to piss in than a wanna be militia idiot who makes $70 / hr as a contract welder on an oil rig and spends all his money on guns, ammo and diesel for his massive truck.
Also, in the county where my brother lives - Nolan County, Texas - the vast majority of folks are family farmers (or their parents, spouse or siblings are). They all live government crop insurance check to government crop insurance check. So he and his extended family (sister who is a nurse, wife who is a teacher, etc) are representative of the average family in the community. None of these folks are leaving their family behind to fight a war for Trump. So, at least in rural Texas, I don't know where the army MAGA needs to fight a civil war is coming from.
One thing I'd like to see Charlie is brining in someone with real expertise to discuss what Civil War 2.0 would look like. I simply can't imagine a scenario where a legitimate Civil War breaks out. For a war to happen, you have to have two sides that are capable of sustaining a conflict with each other over a meaningful period of time and to take an hold territory.
Most of the people on social media who are saber rattling seem to expect some kind of domestic insurgency where pockets of right wing militias incite violence. I don't see this as a war as much as a series of domestic terrorism events where law enforcement turns up and deals with the situation.
In order to have a real shooting war, MAGA would have to field a fighting force capable going toe to toe with the US Armed Forces. How does that happen?
1. The Armed forces fracture into two groups - Loyalists and Extremists.
2. The governors of Red states declare independence and draft a military force.
3. Some 3rd party (China? Russia?) intervenes to provide MAGA with the resources & manpower to fight.
So I just don't see any of these scenarios being realistic either alone or in combination. Are there really millions of people in the US who are willing to leave the security of their family, jobs and communities behind to go to war against the US military? Does anyone think that Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, when push comes to shove, are going to resign from Congress and have the spine to put their lives on the line by joining a rebel army / government?
It would be really enlightening to get someone with military experience to talk about what the actual threat level is for a civil war. Just because some guy on Twitter says "Tomorrow is War, Sleep Well." doesn't mean that guy is actually picking up a gun and risking his life.
Maybe not a civil war, which you're right is hard to see, but asymmetrical warfare / terrorism is an awful possibility to contemplate. Putting aside ideologies or even the right of things, Ireland, South Africa, and Israel are all examples of places where insurgents never assembled a viable military force against a formidable military power, but wrought havoc for years. Something to consider and fear, at least in terms of living through and with it.
I also find it very hard to imagine asymmetrical warfare / terrorism working for any extended period of time in the country with the most advanced military, law enforcement institutions and surveillance capabilities the world has ever known. Especially when (unlike Ireland, etc.) the terrorists will not be supported by their local community along ethnic / religious grounds due to actual persecution (as opposed to the weak/fake claims of persecution MAGA has now).
This is what I hang my hope on when it comes to Ireland as an example. And that's not to say that we can't have some of the troubles, but that I don't think it gets sustained for anywhere near as long if it happens.
My biggest concern is really for the next time a Republican is in the whitehouse and the Republican running loses. That's where uncertainty about the legitimacy of who is giving the orders can lead to fracturing of police and military. If J6 had been a bit more 'successful' and Trump declares martial law or something, does the military just stop taking his orders on Jan 20th when there's 'uncertainty', no official inauguration, etc., etc.?
I hope you are right.
Me too. Me too.
. . . and you probably are. Most Americans are more decent than we give each other credit for.
/2 I called my brother who is a lifelong Republican in deep red MAGA-ville West Texas and asked him if he would go to war for Trump. He said - "I have to get my crop planted and the girls have a stock show next weekend, so I can't fit civil war into my schedule right now."
He's a funny guy, but there is a major kernal of truth in that statement. How many Americans - even the most aggressive MAGA fans on Twitter - are willing to risk their lives and the lives of their kids and grandkids to go to war? I think the answer is - none of the sane ones.
Are the millions of insane people out there? Sure. But should we be really worried about the people who wear Trump t-shirts to MAGA rallies being any kind of threat to a SWAT team or a National Guard unit - even if thousands of them show up with AR 15s and pipe bombs?
If there was going to be an armed insurrection, wouldn't it have happened on Jan6 when they believed the election had been stolen?
I think its all a huge game of chicken. And the cowards are the people on the MAGA side. The only people truly willing to go to war and die for their beliefs by the millions are the anti-MAGA people.
not only that but he likely has over a million dollars in land and equipment at risk. The ones talking about civil war are (as grand dad have said) the ones who "don't have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of"
If you have a big truck, an AR 15 and thousands of rounds of ammo, you by definition have a pot to piss in. There has never been a civil war in a modern first world country because no one who is capable of effectively fighting a war is willing to risk all the benefits they have due to living in a first world country. If we are talking about some nutty fringe militia people, my money is on the US military to win that fight. 100 times out of 100.
Most folks are more in love with the idea than with carrying out the plan. It is a bit like something that happened to me a few years ago. My pickup backfired as I parked it in my driveway. It was an old neighborhood with a lot of crime. For some reason I ended up with 10 police officers on my front porch weapons drawn and me in handcuffs.
Telling the story to my bil an NRA buff, he told me that was why we needed the second amendment. I just laughed and replyed"the problem with that is I wasn't interested in committing suicide"
So many hot takes could be drawn from that story, but needing a second amendment for it wouldn't be my first or even eleventeeth one.
Maybe, just maybe, some police reform?!?
Exactly right.
Sorry, when it comes to the cost it takes to get that crop in, yeah bubba and his hocked to the eyebrows pickup truck is still looking for a place to piss. He is not alone the little gangbanger with his multiple weapons is also almost homeless.
So not sure how much you know about farming (maybe a lot?) but even though my brother has a lot of money sunk in land and equipment, its not liquid. You can't ever sell land or equipment to make rent or you eventually don't have a farm left. My brother is a LOT closer to having no pot to piss in than a wanna be militia idiot who makes $70 / hr as a contract welder on an oil rig and spends all his money on guns, ammo and diesel for his massive truck.
Also, in the county where my brother lives - Nolan County, Texas - the vast majority of folks are family farmers (or their parents, spouse or siblings are). They all live government crop insurance check to government crop insurance check. So he and his extended family (sister who is a nurse, wife who is a teacher, etc) are representative of the average family in the community. None of these folks are leaving their family behind to fight a war for Trump. So, at least in rural Texas, I don't know where the army MAGA needs to fight a civil war is coming from.