Don’t look now, but there’s yet another major potential energy shock on the horizon: Reuters reported yesterday that Ukrainian drone attacks had forced shutdowns at two major Russian oil export terminals. The war in Iran has been a godsend for Russia’s war economy, permitting more oil exports at higher prices—particularly after the White House eased sanctions on Russian oil companies to help meet global demand. Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in response. Happy Thursday.
Not Even Trump Likes Trump’s War
by William Kristol
President Trump was the featured speaker at the House Republicans’ annual fundraiser last night in Washington. As the crowd eagerly awaited their supreme leader’s remarks, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) paused the proceedings for an important surprise announcement. House Republicans had come up with a new honor to bestow on Donald Trump: “And so, tonight, we have created a new award. He is the suitable and fitting recipient of the first-ever America First Award . . . this beautiful golden statue here.”
Trump seemed pleased by the award. Many commentators, noting our president’s enthusiasm for all manner of phony awards, have compared him to a child.
But this comparison is unfair to children. They’ve always seemed to me to have a pretty good nose for phoniness. They often scorn fake awards that they know have been invented to make them feel good. They have more self-awareness than Donald Trump. And what about golden statues? Johnson, a man of the Good Book, must be aware of their dubious reputation, from the Israelites’ golden calf in the book of Exodus to King Nebuchadnezzer’s golden idol in the book of Daniel.
But House Republicans are not interested in following the example of Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednego. They continue to bow down to their leader.
As do their colleagues in the Senate. All Republican senators but one voted once again on Tuesday against requiring congressional support for the war that Trump unilaterally launched, and that he may now be dramatically expanding with troops on the ground.
It’s true that yesterday, after sitting through briefings from Trump administration officials, some GOP members of Congress expressed concerns. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said senior officials had failed to provide clarity about the scope and direction of the military campaign. “We want to know more about what’s going on,” Rogers said. “We’re just not getting enough answers.” His counterpart in the senate, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) remarked, “I can see why [Rogers] might have said that.”
So Republicans on the Hill are frustrated. But they’re unwilling to act. Which means this is not just Trump’s war. It is the GOP’s war.
Now, Trump and some Republicans don’t want to call it a war. Trump said last night that he’s avoiding describing the conflict as a “war” because Congress hasn’t authorized it. “I won’t use the word ‘war’ because they say, if you use the word ‘war,’ that’s maybe not a good thing to do. They don’t like the word ‘war,’ because you’re supposed to get approval, so I’ll use the word ‘military operation,’ which is what it really is.”
But in his same speech last night Trump did use the word “war,” saying, “The war essentially ended a few days after we went in.” On Tuesday, Trump had pointed out that “people don’t like me using the word ‘war,’ so I won’t, but the Democrats call it a war.”
Democrats should keep on calling it a war. And they should keep on opposing the war.
For one thing, the war is an ill-conceived idea launched without sufficient preparation and planning. As David French summed it up:
This is not how our democracy should go to war. Trump is not the right man to lead our nation into battle. I see recklessness. I see thoughtlessness. He led America into an unconstitutional war. And now he’s compounding that sin by proving to be every bit as reckless a commander as he is a president.
There’s no reason for Democrats to sound more hesitant in their condemnations of Trump’s war than French.
And if Democrats need some political reassurance, the war really is strikingly unpopular.
A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found that only 38 percent of Americans think the initial decision to use military force was right. Fifty-nine percent think it was wrong. Only 37 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict, while 61 percent of Americans disapprove. Only 18 percent strongly approve of Trump’s handling of the war, while 44 percent strongly disapprove.
Even Trump, it seems, may be losing patience with the war he started.
The Wall Street Journal reported last night that Trump “has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks” because it’s “distracting from his other priorities.”
So Trump may be looking for an off ramp. On the other hand, Axios reported early this morning that “the Pentagon is developing military options for a ‘final blow’ in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.” And of course Trump has already ordered the deployment of as many as 7,000 Marines and soldiers to the region for possible use in ground operations.
So maybe Trump has in mind escalating before de-escalating?
Who knows? Trump probably doesn’t know. But Democrats can’t do anything about Trump’s mind. What they can do is sharpen their message in opposition. They can say no to the war. They can say, with even more urgency, no to the introduction of ground troops. They can try to force congressional votes on this.
Republicans say they are unhappy with “not getting enough answers” from the Trump administration. With an escalation to ground troops on the horizon, they should be put on the spot: Are you still willing to give this administration a blank check?
The Amazing Disappearing Cabinet
by Joseph Ramos
Two of the most prominent members of Donald Trump’s cabinet, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, have grown allergic to media interviews amid the ongoing Iran war. And their absence from the airwaves is fueling speculation that both men—widely considered rival heirs to Trump’s political throne—don’t see any upside in defending Trump’s “excursion.”
Administration officials and defenders say that any talk of discomfort or discord within the ranks is silly or overblown. “This fake narrative is absolutely laughable to every single person who is in the know in Washington. It’s a classic mainstream media creation,” one White House official told us. But a detailed look at Vance’s and Rubio’s press availability shows that, compared to the prominent roles both men played following the administration’s two other prominent military operations, the two men have been notably mum this month.
On the morning of June 22, the day after the Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iran’s nuclear sites took place, Vance sat for more than 18 minutes for an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press and an additional 12 minutes and 30 seconds for an interview with ABC’s This Week. The day after that, he did a 13 minute 50 second in-studio interview on Fox News’s Special Report, during which he planted a flag about the operation’s success: “I actually think when we look back we will say the Twelve Day War was an important reset moment for the entire region,” Vance told host Bret Baier.1
Rubio was similarly ubiquitous last summer. On June 22, he did a 15 minute interview on CBS’s Face the Nation along with an interview of similar length with Fox News’s Sunday Morning Features. Three days later, he sat down with Politico’s Dasha Burns.
Vance and Rubio were similarly camera-hungry after the capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro on January 3. Three days following that operation, Vance did a 20 minute interview on The Scott Jennings Show. The next day, he did an interview with Fox News’s Jesse Watters, in which he contrasted the operation favorably to a war in the Middle East. “This is not Iraq. This is not 7,000 miles away. This is in our neighborhood,” Vance said. A day after that, he answered a question about Venezuela while leading a White House briefing primarily about the killing of Renee Good by ICE officers in Minnesota.
Rubio was even energetic after the Maduro raid. The day after it happened, he appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press, CBS’s Face the Nation, and ABC’s This Week. Each interview was more than 13 minutes long, with the Meet the Press conversation lasting 18 minutes.
Since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, things have been different. On March 2, Vance once again went on Watters’s show, but this time only for six minutes. Since then, he’s done no sit-down media. In fact, a CBS town hall he was slated to appear in was postponed indefinitely “due to the war.” Rubio has not done a sit-down interview either, according to our review of the records. He briefly took questions from the press before briefing lawmakers on Capitol Hill on March 2 and 3. It was during that first briefing that Rubio said that the United States attacked Iran because the administration concluded that Iran would retaliate against the United States for any strike Israel conducted—a position the administration has since recanted.
After that, both men went largely dark. Neither has done a sit-down interview. And they’ve only fielded questions about Iran when reporters have lobbed them their way at events unrelated to the war.
On March 13, Vance was pressed on Iran during a press gaggle at the end of a speech in North Carolina, and again when he boarded the plane to get back home. On March 16, he was asked another Iran question at an anti-fraud press conference Trump was hosting at the White House. And on March 18, he faced more Iran questions after a speech in Michigan.
Rubio has worked even harder to stay under the radar. At an Oval Office meeting on March 17 meant to mark Saint Patrick’s Day, Trump passed a question about Cuba to Rubio while redirecting a question about Iran to Vance. And on March 20, Rubio stood silently behind Trump for ten minutes as the president took questions outside the White House, until a reporter asked Rubio about Cuba.
Neither Rubio’s nor Vance’s offices commented for this piece, though a State Department official dubbed it “a lazy ‘report’ looking for a story where there is none.” The official noted that “The Secretary is proud to be part of the team working to implement President Trump’s foreign policy day-in and day-out,” and that “the Trump administration continues to speak directly to the American people multiple times a day.” And, to a degree, that’s true. Trump himself has done plenty of press availabilites—to say nothing of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s high-octane morning press conferences.
But normally the secretary of state and national security advisor are front-and-center when an administration makes a major foreign policy decision like starting a war. And, at least in the past, the vice president has been a major voice explaining military operations.
That’s not happening now. And it prompts the obvious question: Do Rubio and Vance want to avoid defending the war? Asked during that March 16 White House event if he backed the operation given his past opposition to military engagements in the Middle East, all Vance would muster was that he trusted Trump not to muck things up.
“I think one big difference is that we have a smart president, whereas in the past we’ve had dumb presidents,” he said. “And I trust President Trump to get the job done, to do a good job for the American people, and to make sure that the mistakes of the past aren’t repeated.”
—Sam Stein contributed reporting.
AROUND THE BULWARK
Is Putin Getting Nervous? A Putin stooge goes rogue, the war effort flounders, Russians grumble over dead cows and dead phone signals. What’s going on? CATHY YOUNG explains..
Iran, Airport Lines, CBS and More! On Bulwark Takes, KATIE COURIC joins TIM MILLER and JVL to dig into some of the biggest stories so far this week on a special edition recorded live yesterday evening.
The Narrative Crisis of Modern Baseball… In the age of sabermetric optimization, JACOB LUPFER wonders, can baseball still tell a human story?
Quick Hits
NATO’S ENABLER: For all of Trump’s second term, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has done his best to keep the American president—whose personal sympathies lie strongly and obviously with the world’s autocrats and right-wing strongmen—from totally shattering America’s preexisting alliances, particularly amid Russia’s war on Ukraine. For the most part, Rutte has done this by abandoning his personal dignity and going for the Olympic gold in presidential bootlicking. Rutte raised eyebrows last year when he called Trump “daddy” during a NATO summit, and Trump has frequently tweeted out screenshots of Rutte’s gushingly obsequious text messages to him.
But America’s war in Iran seems to be straining Rutte’s approach to the breaking point. The NATO chief has been a loud cheerleader for the war, to the growing irritation of some NATO members. And yet it’s not clear that any amount of praise is enough for Trump at this moment. Despite the fact that NATO members have no obligation to back one another up in offensive wars of choice, and despite the fact that Trump himself has spent the last year relentlessly antagonizing NATO allies, Trump still seems outraged that NATO nations haven’t risen up as one to follow him into Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
“NATO NATIONS HAVE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP WITH THE LUNATIC NATION, NOW MILITARILY DECIMATED, OF IRAN,” Trump shout-posted on Truth Social early this morning. “THE U.S.A. NEEDS NOTHING FROM NATO, BUT ‘NEVER FORGET’ THIS VERY IMPORTANT POINT IN TIME!”
DEALMAKER IN CHIEF: As the Department of Homeland Security shutdown stretches on, the gulf between lawmakers’ negotiations and Trump’s wild demands appears only to be widening. Multiple times this week, Republican senators have been on the brink of a deal to fund every part of DHS except for ICE, solving the shutdown’s most prominent pain points, like a shortage of TSA agents that have snarled lines at airports. (Under Republicans’ proposal, ICE funding would be restored later via a party-line budget reconciliation bill.) But while Trump has repeatedly signaled his willingness to strike such a deal, he keeps snapping back at the last minute to a much more hostile posture. “I think any deal they make, I’m pretty much not happy with it,” Trump said Tuesday.
Instead, the president is growing more committed to his belief that Republicans should pursue a different strategy altogether: cutting Democrats out entirely by abandoning the legislative filibuster, which would permit them not only to restore DHS funding without Democratic votes but to pass a laundry list of other legislative priorities as well. Trump fired off three Truth Social posts on the topic this morning: “When is ‘enough, enough’ for our Republican Senators,” Trump said, adding,
There comes a time when you must do what should have been done a long time ago, and something which the Lunatic Democrats will do on day one, if they ever get the chance. TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER, and get our airports, and everything else, moving again. Also, add the complete, all five items, SAVE AMERICA ACT items.2 Go for the Gold!!!
Since Republican Senate leadership has consistently made it clear they see keeping the filibuster as non-negotiable, the only immediate effect of Trump’s outbursts on this topic is to keep the DHS shutdown going until further notice.
Cheap Shots
Per NBC News, it’s always the ones you least expect:
Which, well, you be the judge.
Sic
Bill: "Now, Trump and some Republicans don’t want to call it a war. Trump said last night that he’s avoiding describing the conflict as a “war” because Congress hasn’t authorized it. “I won’t use the word ‘war’ because they say, if you use the word ‘war,’ that’s maybe not a good thing to do. They don’t like the word ‘war,’ because you’re supposed to get approval, so I’ll use the word ‘military operation,’ which is what it really is.”
"But in his same speech last night Trump did use the word “war,” saying, “The war essentially ended a few days after we went in.” On Tuesday, Trump had pointed out that “people don’t like me using the word ‘war,’ so I won’t, but the Democrats call it a war.”"
I imagine it takes a healthy ego to run for the House or the Senate, and yet all of these GOP quislings have made a show of bending the knee to a sundowning malignant narcissist who thinks "military operation" is one word. What is the point of serving in Congress if all you're doing is fluffing this orange moral degenerate?
Trump looks like death warmed over in that photo from the smelly carpet room at Mar-a-Lago.