The Bosporus is closed to commercial traffic, not military. If they're loaded onto mil transports or even civilian transports with mil escorts, they will get to Sevastopol--or maybe even directly to Mariupol by then. Frustrated forces in unfamiliar terrain tend to resort to war crimes to fight back, which blends with the overall "Mariupol Model" of war-criming until the enemy capitulates. Russia also has the Vagner mercs. I'm not sure about what the odds of a Belarusian mutiny would be, but I wouldn't be comfortable banking on that personally. I don't have as much insight into that part of the geopolitics other than Belarus has been Russia's footstool for even longer than Ukraine was pre-Maidan Rev.
None of this addresses what happens if the Mariupol Model spreads across the other urban centers of interest like Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv. How does the Ukrainian military fight artillery barrages when the Russians start trading their casualty rates for civilian ones elsewhere? How do they combat the Grozny/Idlib/Mariupol tactics that have worked time and again? If there's one thing that the Russians *have* kept in good supply logistically it appears to be artillery shells.
If cities are reduced to rubble and most of the defenders are now refugees, then there's a lot less resistance to be faced once you take what's left of the city. The Russians may only need to employ DNR/LNR militias at that point. We'll find out soon enough in the case of Mariupol that's for sure.
Double-checked this and you're right, point acknowledged. But do you think Turkey will enforce that as a NATO member if Russian warships approach the straight? Even if the straits aren't an option, flying works just fine. We flew all of our people into Iraq/Afghanistan post-invasion. You don't need ships.
I appreciate the back and forth between Travis and TCinLA, both of whose comments I have read and both of whom seem to have background military knowledge. I feel like I am getting additional information to add to the very thorough treatment of topics from JVL (thanks to you, JVL.)
If flown through Iraqi/Iranian airspace from Syria they dodge all of NATO airspace and can take the Caucuses leg to Sevastopol. Not a straight line, but very doable.
Alright, lets assume the Russians get *zero* replenishments from Syria/Libya and *maybe* no replenishments from Belarus. What's the Ukrainian military's counter to the Mariupol Model once it spreads to Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.? What does the Ukrainian mil do to counter the trade of Russian KIAs for civilian casualties via standoff ordnance?
This is why you need a surge in equipment like attack drones that can be used in counter-battery and logistics denial. Nobody is going to out-artillery the Russian army, directly (not without having the equivalent of the US Air Force available).
I truly hope you're right. I just know that once Mariupol falls there'll be a lot more artillery batteries and shells available elsewhere. Kharkiv has already gotten a good amount of this treatment but not to the degree Mariupol has based on before/after Maxar imagery at scale.
The Bosporus is closed to commercial traffic, not military. If they're loaded onto mil transports or even civilian transports with mil escorts, they will get to Sevastopol--or maybe even directly to Mariupol by then. Frustrated forces in unfamiliar terrain tend to resort to war crimes to fight back, which blends with the overall "Mariupol Model" of war-criming until the enemy capitulates. Russia also has the Vagner mercs. I'm not sure about what the odds of a Belarusian mutiny would be, but I wouldn't be comfortable banking on that personally. I don't have as much insight into that part of the geopolitics other than Belarus has been Russia's footstool for even longer than Ukraine was pre-Maidan Rev.
None of this addresses what happens if the Mariupol Model spreads across the other urban centers of interest like Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv. How does the Ukrainian military fight artillery barrages when the Russians start trading their casualty rates for civilian ones elsewhere? How do they combat the Grozny/Idlib/Mariupol tactics that have worked time and again? If there's one thing that the Russians *have* kept in good supply logistically it appears to be artillery shells.
If cities are reduced to rubble and most of the defenders are now refugees, then there's a lot less resistance to be faced once you take what's left of the city. The Russians may only need to employ DNR/LNR militias at that point. We'll find out soon enough in the case of Mariupol that's for sure.
Double-checked this and you're right, point acknowledged. But do you think Turkey will enforce that as a NATO member if Russian warships approach the straight? Even if the straits aren't an option, flying works just fine. We flew all of our people into Iraq/Afghanistan post-invasion. You don't need ships.
I appreciate the back and forth between Travis and TCinLA, both of whose comments I have read and both of whom seem to have background military knowledge. I feel like I am getting additional information to add to the very thorough treatment of topics from JVL (thanks to you, JVL.)
What is RussiaтАЩs airlift capability? Is it comparable to the U.S.?
Doesn't need to be that much when round trips are an option.
If flown through Iraqi/Iranian airspace from Syria they dodge all of NATO airspace and can take the Caucuses leg to Sevastopol. Not a straight line, but very doable.
Alright, lets assume the Russians get *zero* replenishments from Syria/Libya and *maybe* no replenishments from Belarus. What's the Ukrainian military's counter to the Mariupol Model once it spreads to Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.? What does the Ukrainian mil do to counter the trade of Russian KIAs for civilian casualties via standoff ordnance?
This is why you need a surge in equipment like attack drones that can be used in counter-battery and logistics denial. Nobody is going to out-artillery the Russian army, directly (not without having the equivalent of the US Air Force available).
I truly hope you're right. I just know that once Mariupol falls there'll be a lot more artillery batteries and shells available elsewhere. Kharkiv has already gotten a good amount of this treatment but not to the degree Mariupol has based on before/after Maxar imagery at scale.