I’m not sure how polling engages, but I would NEVER admit to a stranger that I’m a Biden supporter. The political landscape is truly dangerous. Other than this forum, I keep my political thoughts to myself.
Overall polls and comparisons seem useless when they don’t include that abortion rights and medical rights have been DRASTICALLY taken away from women (and therefore families). It often seems to be missing from the calculus. We’ve had it, we’re mad and we’re not going to allow further degradation of our health, privacy and rights. Women will be out in force - Voting against MAGA everywhere.
Thank you Sarah. The last national elections even the Bulwark said that there would be a red wave due to bad vibes in the country. And then the Democrats did incredibly better that any one predicted, because of women. Everyone, including the Bulwark, said women's issue weren't important to voters.
He wasn't comparing Biden to Carter. He was comparing *voter perceptions* of Carter to *voter perceptions* of Biden. Big difference. It's a comparison of playing field vibes, not the presidents themselves. I'd also say that comparing 1980 voters to 2024 voters is also a false equivalence (see my longer-form reply to this Triad for more), but the same voter feelings are involved in both elections. The world is more chaotic now than in 1980, and Biden appears just as powerless to rein in that chaos now as Carter did in 1979/1980. When retail voters (read: NOT Bulwark/Atlantic readers) at large are fearful about chaos both within and outside of their borders, they turn to the strongmen. Current voter vibes based around worry about chaos in the world, at the border, and inside of American cities are political terrain that favors Trump and the GOP right now. But just like when Americans found out that Reagan couldn't control the chaos in Lebanon and sent the US military running with its tail between its legs after Beirut 1983, the American public may not find out that Trump can't control the chaos either until he's already in office and it's too late to go back.
I always read (and re-read) what you have to say, Travis. But if i may steal a line, I ‘Beg to Differ’ a little here. My view is that the co-opting of the Republican Party by Herr Drumpf & Co. has brought us to a point where most Drumpf leaning potential voters for the upcoming elections could not give one rat turd about what goes on outside of our borders and are mostly ignorant about such affairs. It is more reminiscent of late 1930’s America as opposed to late 1970’s America in many ways.
In the 30’a there was exhaustion from our entry into WWI, the stunning carnage and destruction of a generation of young American men, a generation of exhausted and trepidatious Americans who wanted no part of another European war, a growing and powerful isolationist lobby, and a similarly growing anti-immigrant lobby as well. Can’t forget the Christian Nationalists who were alarmed at the prospect of non-Christian ‘infiltration’ into the mainstream as well.
In the 70’s we were exhausted from Vietnam but even more from the general societal upheaval that the late 60’s and early 70’s had wrought and just wanted an exit from any foreign entanglements. There was the implosion of Iran, the embassy crisis and the first successful Arab Oil Embargo vexing the country. As JVL noted high inflation & interest rates coupled with “gas-lines”—In California and many populous states you could only by gas on alternating days based on your license plate numbers. But I digress….
The primary reason voter perceptions are what they are is disinformation. We don’t have a ‘low information’ voter problem. We have a disinformation voter problem and my greatest fear is that such disinformation will only worsen between now and November. I do not know what the solution is. But more Bulwark is as good a place as any to vent about it. Ha-Oooooh- Rah, Brother
"most Drumpf leaning potential voters for the upcoming elections could not give one rat turd about what goes on outside of our borders and are mostly ignorant about such affairs"
I kind of half agree with this, but agree with your larger point about the isolationism of the 1930's making a return. I would say that isolationists actually pay a fair amount of attention to foreign affairs, mostly so they know what conflicts are going on so that we can stay out of them. Just like the isolationism shocks of WWI and Vietnam, GWoT created another isolationism shock--particularly on the political right where the guys who loved Bush for a decade learned to hate him in the aftermath of GWoT's failures after they gave up a whole lot for basically nothing of national gain with no accountability for the folks who had sent us there in the first place. They don't want more repeats of that, and they don't want us even giving support to Ukraine let alone getting involved ourselves there or in Taiwan.
"Can’t forget the Christian Nationalists who were alarmed at the prospect of non-Christian ‘infiltration’ into the mainstream as well."
The protests against the "Ground Zero Mosque" and the cries of "Sharia Law in Michigan" from the right during the Obama admin come to mind here. Wasn't just limited to the 1930's.
"The primary reason voter perceptions are what they are is disinformation. We don’t have a ‘low information’ voter problem. We have a disinformation voter problem and my greatest fear is that such disinformation will only worsen between now and November"
This is correct. There's just no comparison between the info environments of yesteryear versus that of today's. It's only going to get worse with AI.
I can see people who were adult in 1980 comparing Carter’s disreputable brother to Biden’s troubled son but there the comparison stops in my mind. As you said, US society is different now. Although there were single working mothers bringing up children back then, as was I, we didn’t have the pressure to buy kids expensive electronics. We had a MAC II and that was a big deal, but then we had to learn Basic which was a project. Obviously we didn’t have social media. Financial pressure was great but middle class families could make do without running up high credit cards. There wasn’t the polarization we see today. I guess my bottom line is kids had to work for what they desired. They could see that their goals were attainable by focusing in and working hard.
It should be noted that he’s doing that bc he wants Trump to win. If you want to make the case that Biden shouldn’t be reelected, you compare him to the only Democrat to lose reelection in the last 100+ years.
I really don't think Whit wants Trump to win and he has said as much. Was I the only one who listened to the full episode and not just the parts where Whit is trying to sound the alarm bells on Biden's prospects? The man is not in Trump's camp at all.
It seems highly unlikely to me that The Bulwark at large, and Bill Kristol specifically, would have a pro-Trump...anything. It's the antithesis of their entire purpose.
**also, polls that show “young voters divided on Trump vs Biden”…I’m VERY skeptical of. As someone who’s a Millennial with younger Gen Z family members, I’m not seeing that…at all.
I think those polls are over-sampling for Trump heavy groups.
Which Gen Z voters are streaming Andrew Tate and Joe Rogan then? Cuz from what I've seen of the youngs--and take this with a large grain of anecdotal salt--a lot of the young men are going MAGA (not all, just a lot) and just about all of the women are going Biden. More on that here:
I think you and I are mostly saying the same thing, with one exception.
You’re right that the Gen Z Joe Rogan/incel jackoffs crowd is very MAGA. And I have very little doubt that these polls are capturing those ppl. Where I pause, is that they’re nowhere close to representative of the Gen Z cohort. So I think the pills are over-sampling for the Rogan ppl.
I don’t think that group is representative of Gen Z or even Gen Z men, for that matter…any more than Rush Limbaugh’s ditto heads were representative of Gen X/Gen Jones men.
Rogan’s crowd is, frankly, a bunch of the Information economy’s losers, coupled with a handful of college grads who fall somewhere into either the gamer or low manager class. They’re the modern day version of that dude in Waiting who touts is Associate’s degree.
But the Gen Z men who are gainfully employed and married…yeah they don’t want their daughters living in the United States of Gilead. And they see the Matt Walshes of the world for the loser panderers and grifters that they are.
I’m not sure that I agree with that. He sounds more anti-anti- than RVAT. I say that bc most RVATs aren’t comparing Biden to Carter, but rather GHWB. And if Biden loses, I think Bush 41 is the more on point comparator.
Actually, in terms of opinion and mood, the more apposite analogue is Truman, not Carter. Now, the caveat, there, is that the party system was different in 1948, but that’s also true of 1980.
My optimism is rooted in two things. First, that. But secondly, I don’t see a lot of people who voted for Biden going back to Trump. And I think Trump voters are dying off. And new voters are more blue than red. Also, though he can win the EC without winning the popular vote, Trump keeps topping out around 46%, and that’s true even in many of the swing states.
I just don’t see him getting much north of the Dukakis line in the popular vote- and that makes winning the EC really hard, even w the advantage it gives him. And if there are new Trump voters it beats me as to where they’re coming from. Bc his coalition isn’t getting any younger, and the youngs DESPISE the GOP.
I don't see where the chaos is. I don't watch TV news, are these programs presenting a constant stream of bad news or saying the good news is fleeting? It must be tv sensationalism because, except for Marge green and her fellow idiots, there is nothing chaotic going on at all. Even those Bozos at the border are realizing there is no there there.
The things currently going on that I'd ascribe to what the voting public sees as global/domestic chaos that is not being reigned in:
Global
- Largest land war in Europe since WWII underway for 2 years now in Ukraine
- Israel and Iranian proxies fighting again (Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, Houthis)
- Iranian proxies firing missiles at container ships forcing maritime traffic to more-costly alternative routes (Houthis)
- Iranian proxies attacking American troops in Iraq, Syria, and now Jordan (Kataib Hezbollah mostly)
- An American president who can't seem to get any of this stuff to stop via military force or diplomacy or economic pressure (Biden)
Domestic
- High cost of living brought on by rent inflation and home value inflation that is persistent due to the lack of housing inventory because we've been underbuilding for a long time--arguably since the '08 GFC
- Homelessness crisis and tent camps full of fentanyl addicts with mental health problems in just about every major metro in the country now
- A broken asylum system that is literally filled to the brim with fraudulent claims and backlogged court cases
- A border security and immigration system that isn't capable of handling the large flow of migrants--both legal and illegal--in an orderly manner
- Ineffectual democrat mayors who don't seem to be able to control these issues in cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago, and NYC (among others)
You can agree/disagree with whether or not these things should collectively be called a chaotic environment, I'm just telling you what voters seem to be freaked out about regarding domestic and global problems that don't seem to be going away.
Biden was doing an incredible job leading Europe in helping Ukraine. It was the stupid Republicans who put a stop to it. Just like they'll put a stop to Biden' s excellent plan to reduce the illegal immigration. Housing prices and rents are not under the President's perview, but housing is expensive in San Diego and Pheonix. You can get a much cheaper house Cedar Rapids IA.
The reason people are rushing to the border is because the US is having the best recovery from the Covid shut down of any other country. It's especially bad south of the border. Those corrupt ineffectual governments in Central and South America ate encouraging their poor to go North. They don't have any jobs for them.
I know people who live in Chicago and love it. I'm hearing no complaints. Same with LA. Lots of happy people there.
I'm just telling you what I hear voters worried/complaining about. I'm not here to defend their views, I'm just here to tell you what they're saying. There's a big big difference between how retail voters think and how the Bulwark audience thinks, and not recognizing that difference is a surefire way to find yourself holding onto potentially bad expectations.
Do you I don't live around people. My daughter rents a house in Las Vegas and is not complaining. My son lives in Palm Desert and is a teacher. His one bedroom apt in a modern a complex has a pool and sauna and work out room. He pays $1700 very affordable on a teachers salary.
Now I live at the beach. Apts are very expensive. But not everyone can live at the beach, or in Hollywood or Manhatten. People who can't afford rents at the beach, don't live here, which is why I do.
Btw. I'm a voter. Granted a lot of voters are stupid, but how in the world can anyone believe a fat slob like Trump will care if peasants can't afford Apts.
Travis, I’m having a hard time believing that voters under 60 remember enough of Carter’s admin to make the comparison. I was 16. Most of us weren’t paying attention.
Which makes me wonder about Ayers’ cross tab details and the sample sizes, if they weren’t heavily stacked w/Republicans 60+. My kids are in their 20s and very politically aware. If you asked them if they perceived Biden to be weak or ineffectual, they probably would say yes. But if you asked them if his performance reminded them of Carter’s term, I think they’d be at sea. So I think as JVL says, there’s more going on. But I think it’s Ayers looking for a oearl-clutching headline.
My kids belong to the very left wing of the party. The delusional wing, that still believes a pol has to live up with their preferences 100% before they’ll give credit/support. I hope/pray/assume they will grow out of it with age & experience.
That's what's wonderful about young people. They think they discovered the truth about everything and are so sure and self righteous. It's beautiful to see even though you know they will eventually have to face reality at some point in their lives.
Off the top of my head, a lack of (what they see as) meaningful action regarding climate change, the failure of the student loan forgiveness, being moderately pro-Israel, and an ongoing affordable housing crisis. I'm actually generally content with how Biden has handled all of this, but a lot of younger people aren't interested in the relatively moderate gains we've made.
Whit is comparing how *voters in 1980* felt about Carter compared to how *voters in 2024* feel about Biden. He wasn't comparing presidents. He wasn't talking about voters today feeling like they did back in 1980 (because they're not the same voters). He wasn't comparing the state of the economy in 1980 vs 2024. He wasn't comparing crime levels in 1980 vs 2024. He was comparing how voters today feel about Biden versus how voters in 1980 felt about Carter. That is the end of the comparison.
Now ask your kids if they think Joe Biden looks like a rehydrated piece of old beef jerky with some white hairs glued to his head and eyebrows, and if they're tired of out-of-touch Boomers and Silent Gen mummies being in charge of our national politics.
This is what I mean when I say that Americans do not want to make this choice. It's between rehydrated beef jerky with grey hairs glued onto it and a bloated drag queen with small hands and a shitty haircut in a poorly-fitted suit.
Ayers' sample could be poorly weighted, but I don't think his larger observations are wrong. Then again I ain't a professional pollster, statistician, or pundit, so take that with a rather large grain of anecdotal salt.
I associate Ayers with — and I could be wrong — the R establishment. I’ve never felt like he has a good read on anyone not college-educated, white, and born after 1960. On those folks he’s very good. Everyone else, not so much.
The entire idea of taking minuscule sample sizes and extrapolating them out to the 360M Americans via algorithms shows precisely what’s happened to the state of polling: it’s never been worse or more inaccurate, and the high costs of doing it right simply can’t be justified by the “research” companies. The vast majority of people in this country have very little interest in their day being interrupted by junk phone calls or texts, and they rightfully ignore them. So who ends up taking this calls? People that are NOT representative of this nation’s voters AT ALL and they have to take this flawed small sample and try to juice SOME kind of result from it! This is clearly what the computer science industry calls GIGO: “garbage in garbage out”. If the data input is questionable, the result of calculations CANNOT be counted on for accuracy. Period.
Why is it that the only “polling” that actually counts, ie at the ballot box, seems to end up with exactly the OPPOSITE result from the polls? What happened to the “red wave” in 2022? What happened to Hillary Clinton being the front runner in 2016? What’s happened in special elections and to ballot measures in SO many states over the last 2 or 3 years?
Sure, it’s not ALL because of low quality polls, but they certainly feed the narrative that the media wants to tell. “If It Bleeds, It Leads”….
I don't know that I'd call Whit Ayres a "highly partisan low-quality" pollster. Dude has been in the game for quite a while and isn't exactly a fan of Trump...
I don't disagree with the face value of the rest of what you wrote, but that said, many of the instances of modern polling shortfalls that you pointed to *have* fallen within the margin of error of polls. The percentage splits on polls are a *range of values* based on the margin of error but so often people just go with the single-value reporting that polls give and don't look at the error margin. If you actually +/- the margin of error values onto the single-value outputs, those value envelopes almost always contain the same values as actual outcomes, but people get stuck on the single-value outputs of polls without factoring in the margins so it looks like the polling is always wrong.
For example, take this ABC/WaPo poll released Nov 7th, 2016 (just before election) that goes 47/43 for Hillary:
The margin of error on that poll is 2.5 points. If you add that 2.5 points to Trump's margin and take it away from Hillary's you get a 44.5/45.5 result instead in favor of Trump--which is within the polling margin of error:
All of that said, Hillary still netted more votes than Trump did, so technically the poll was right with respect to national voting, it's just not reflective of the electoral college. Trump got 62,984,828 votes, Hillary had 65,853,514. That's pretty close to a 47-43 split (the percentages don't add to 100, so multiply combined vote totals by 1.1 for that missing 10% and then find 47% of that value, which is 66M--close to Hillary's actual numbers) and certainly within the margin of error of that poll in either direction.
What’s way worse is a large group of voters and likely plurality of them in swing states are totally fine with a would be dictator. Unlike Reagan, Trump is not an unknown quantity. He was president for four years, twice impeached and indicted for 91 counts. I would say if there was no social media and right winged echo chamber, the vibe would be different. But we are where we are and hope we catch a few lucky bounces along the way.
I lived through the Jimmy Carter years. There is NO comparison between Carter and President Biden. For Whit Ayers to suggest otherwise is insulting.
I’m not sure how polling engages, but I would NEVER admit to a stranger that I’m a Biden supporter. The political landscape is truly dangerous. Other than this forum, I keep my political thoughts to myself.
Overall polls and comparisons seem useless when they don’t include that abortion rights and medical rights have been DRASTICALLY taken away from women (and therefore families). It often seems to be missing from the calculus. We’ve had it, we’re mad and we’re not going to allow further degradation of our health, privacy and rights. Women will be out in force - Voting against MAGA everywhere.
Thank you Sarah. The last national elections even the Bulwark said that there would be a red wave due to bad vibes in the country. And then the Democrats did incredibly better that any one predicted, because of women. Everyone, including the Bulwark, said women's issue weren't important to voters.
So much this.
He wasn't comparing Biden to Carter. He was comparing *voter perceptions* of Carter to *voter perceptions* of Biden. Big difference. It's a comparison of playing field vibes, not the presidents themselves. I'd also say that comparing 1980 voters to 2024 voters is also a false equivalence (see my longer-form reply to this Triad for more), but the same voter feelings are involved in both elections. The world is more chaotic now than in 1980, and Biden appears just as powerless to rein in that chaos now as Carter did in 1979/1980. When retail voters (read: NOT Bulwark/Atlantic readers) at large are fearful about chaos both within and outside of their borders, they turn to the strongmen. Current voter vibes based around worry about chaos in the world, at the border, and inside of American cities are political terrain that favors Trump and the GOP right now. But just like when Americans found out that Reagan couldn't control the chaos in Lebanon and sent the US military running with its tail between its legs after Beirut 1983, the American public may not find out that Trump can't control the chaos either until he's already in office and it's too late to go back.
I always read (and re-read) what you have to say, Travis. But if i may steal a line, I ‘Beg to Differ’ a little here. My view is that the co-opting of the Republican Party by Herr Drumpf & Co. has brought us to a point where most Drumpf leaning potential voters for the upcoming elections could not give one rat turd about what goes on outside of our borders and are mostly ignorant about such affairs. It is more reminiscent of late 1930’s America as opposed to late 1970’s America in many ways.
In the 30’a there was exhaustion from our entry into WWI, the stunning carnage and destruction of a generation of young American men, a generation of exhausted and trepidatious Americans who wanted no part of another European war, a growing and powerful isolationist lobby, and a similarly growing anti-immigrant lobby as well. Can’t forget the Christian Nationalists who were alarmed at the prospect of non-Christian ‘infiltration’ into the mainstream as well.
In the 70’s we were exhausted from Vietnam but even more from the general societal upheaval that the late 60’s and early 70’s had wrought and just wanted an exit from any foreign entanglements. There was the implosion of Iran, the embassy crisis and the first successful Arab Oil Embargo vexing the country. As JVL noted high inflation & interest rates coupled with “gas-lines”—In California and many populous states you could only by gas on alternating days based on your license plate numbers. But I digress….
The primary reason voter perceptions are what they are is disinformation. We don’t have a ‘low information’ voter problem. We have a disinformation voter problem and my greatest fear is that such disinformation will only worsen between now and November. I do not know what the solution is. But more Bulwark is as good a place as any to vent about it. Ha-Oooooh- Rah, Brother
"most Drumpf leaning potential voters for the upcoming elections could not give one rat turd about what goes on outside of our borders and are mostly ignorant about such affairs"
I kind of half agree with this, but agree with your larger point about the isolationism of the 1930's making a return. I would say that isolationists actually pay a fair amount of attention to foreign affairs, mostly so they know what conflicts are going on so that we can stay out of them. Just like the isolationism shocks of WWI and Vietnam, GWoT created another isolationism shock--particularly on the political right where the guys who loved Bush for a decade learned to hate him in the aftermath of GWoT's failures after they gave up a whole lot for basically nothing of national gain with no accountability for the folks who had sent us there in the first place. They don't want more repeats of that, and they don't want us even giving support to Ukraine let alone getting involved ourselves there or in Taiwan.
"Can’t forget the Christian Nationalists who were alarmed at the prospect of non-Christian ‘infiltration’ into the mainstream as well."
The protests against the "Ground Zero Mosque" and the cries of "Sharia Law in Michigan" from the right during the Obama admin come to mind here. Wasn't just limited to the 1930's.
"The primary reason voter perceptions are what they are is disinformation. We don’t have a ‘low information’ voter problem. We have a disinformation voter problem and my greatest fear is that such disinformation will only worsen between now and November"
This is correct. There's just no comparison between the info environments of yesteryear versus that of today's. It's only going to get worse with AI.
Semper Fi my man
I can see people who were adult in 1980 comparing Carter’s disreputable brother to Biden’s troubled son but there the comparison stops in my mind. As you said, US society is different now. Although there were single working mothers bringing up children back then, as was I, we didn’t have the pressure to buy kids expensive electronics. We had a MAC II and that was a big deal, but then we had to learn Basic which was a project. Obviously we didn’t have social media. Financial pressure was great but middle class families could make do without running up high credit cards. There wasn’t the polarization we see today. I guess my bottom line is kids had to work for what they desired. They could see that their goals were attainable by focusing in and working hard.
It should be noted that he’s doing that bc he wants Trump to win. If you want to make the case that Biden shouldn’t be reelected, you compare him to the only Democrat to lose reelection in the last 100+ years.
I really don't think Whit wants Trump to win and he has said as much. Was I the only one who listened to the full episode and not just the parts where Whit is trying to sound the alarm bells on Biden's prospects? The man is not in Trump's camp at all.
It seems highly unlikely to me that The Bulwark at large, and Bill Kristol specifically, would have a pro-Trump...anything. It's the antithesis of their entire purpose.
**also, polls that show “young voters divided on Trump vs Biden”…I’m VERY skeptical of. As someone who’s a Millennial with younger Gen Z family members, I’m not seeing that…at all.
I think those polls are over-sampling for Trump heavy groups.
Which Gen Z voters are streaming Andrew Tate and Joe Rogan then? Cuz from what I've seen of the youngs--and take this with a large grain of anecdotal salt--a lot of the young men are going MAGA (not all, just a lot) and just about all of the women are going Biden. More on that here:
https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-gender-gap-young-men-women-dont-agree-politics-2024-1
I think you and I are mostly saying the same thing, with one exception.
You’re right that the Gen Z Joe Rogan/incel jackoffs crowd is very MAGA. And I have very little doubt that these polls are capturing those ppl. Where I pause, is that they’re nowhere close to representative of the Gen Z cohort. So I think the pills are over-sampling for the Rogan ppl.
I don’t think that group is representative of Gen Z or even Gen Z men, for that matter…any more than Rush Limbaugh’s ditto heads were representative of Gen X/Gen Jones men.
Rogan’s crowd is, frankly, a bunch of the Information economy’s losers, coupled with a handful of college grads who fall somewhere into either the gamer or low manager class. They’re the modern day version of that dude in Waiting who touts is Associate’s degree.
But the Gen Z men who are gainfully employed and married…yeah they don’t want their daughters living in the United States of Gilead. And they see the Matt Walshes of the world for the loser panderers and grifters that they are.
“They’re the modern day version of that dude in Waiting who touts is Associate’s degree.” This was a great reference lol
I’m not sure that I agree with that. He sounds more anti-anti- than RVAT. I say that bc most RVATs aren’t comparing Biden to Carter, but rather GHWB. And if Biden loses, I think Bush 41 is the more on point comparator.
Actually, in terms of opinion and mood, the more apposite analogue is Truman, not Carter. Now, the caveat, there, is that the party system was different in 1948, but that’s also true of 1980.
My optimism is rooted in two things. First, that. But secondly, I don’t see a lot of people who voted for Biden going back to Trump. And I think Trump voters are dying off. And new voters are more blue than red. Also, though he can win the EC without winning the popular vote, Trump keeps topping out around 46%, and that’s true even in many of the swing states.
I just don’t see him getting much north of the Dukakis line in the popular vote- and that makes winning the EC really hard, even w the advantage it gives him. And if there are new Trump voters it beats me as to where they’re coming from. Bc his coalition isn’t getting any younger, and the youngs DESPISE the GOP.
As JVL would say, "from your lips to god's ears"
I don't see where the chaos is. I don't watch TV news, are these programs presenting a constant stream of bad news or saying the good news is fleeting? It must be tv sensationalism because, except for Marge green and her fellow idiots, there is nothing chaotic going on at all. Even those Bozos at the border are realizing there is no there there.
The things currently going on that I'd ascribe to what the voting public sees as global/domestic chaos that is not being reigned in:
Global
- Largest land war in Europe since WWII underway for 2 years now in Ukraine
- Israel and Iranian proxies fighting again (Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, Houthis)
- Iranian proxies firing missiles at container ships forcing maritime traffic to more-costly alternative routes (Houthis)
- Iranian proxies attacking American troops in Iraq, Syria, and now Jordan (Kataib Hezbollah mostly)
- An American president who can't seem to get any of this stuff to stop via military force or diplomacy or economic pressure (Biden)
Domestic
- High cost of living brought on by rent inflation and home value inflation that is persistent due to the lack of housing inventory because we've been underbuilding for a long time--arguably since the '08 GFC
- Homelessness crisis and tent camps full of fentanyl addicts with mental health problems in just about every major metro in the country now
- A broken asylum system that is literally filled to the brim with fraudulent claims and backlogged court cases
- A border security and immigration system that isn't capable of handling the large flow of migrants--both legal and illegal--in an orderly manner
- Ineffectual democrat mayors who don't seem to be able to control these issues in cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago, and NYC (among others)
You can agree/disagree with whether or not these things should collectively be called a chaotic environment, I'm just telling you what voters seem to be freaked out about regarding domestic and global problems that don't seem to be going away.
Biden was doing an incredible job leading Europe in helping Ukraine. It was the stupid Republicans who put a stop to it. Just like they'll put a stop to Biden' s excellent plan to reduce the illegal immigration. Housing prices and rents are not under the President's perview, but housing is expensive in San Diego and Pheonix. You can get a much cheaper house Cedar Rapids IA.
The reason people are rushing to the border is because the US is having the best recovery from the Covid shut down of any other country. It's especially bad south of the border. Those corrupt ineffectual governments in Central and South America ate encouraging their poor to go North. They don't have any jobs for them.
I know people who live in Chicago and love it. I'm hearing no complaints. Same with LA. Lots of happy people there.
Are you willfully not paying attention?
I'm just telling you what I hear voters worried/complaining about. I'm not here to defend their views, I'm just here to tell you what they're saying. There's a big big difference between how retail voters think and how the Bulwark audience thinks, and not recognizing that difference is a surefire way to find yourself holding onto potentially bad expectations.
Do you I don't live around people. My daughter rents a house in Las Vegas and is not complaining. My son lives in Palm Desert and is a teacher. His one bedroom apt in a modern a complex has a pool and sauna and work out room. He pays $1700 very affordable on a teachers salary.
Now I live at the beach. Apts are very expensive. But not everyone can live at the beach, or in Hollywood or Manhatten. People who can't afford rents at the beach, don't live here, which is why I do.
Btw. I'm a voter. Granted a lot of voters are stupid, but how in the world can anyone believe a fat slob like Trump will care if peasants can't afford Apts.
It’s not that he cares about them — except the delusional — it’s that he hates and will make miserable the same people the voters hate.
Travis, I’m having a hard time believing that voters under 60 remember enough of Carter’s admin to make the comparison. I was 16. Most of us weren’t paying attention.
Which makes me wonder about Ayers’ cross tab details and the sample sizes, if they weren’t heavily stacked w/Republicans 60+. My kids are in their 20s and very politically aware. If you asked them if they perceived Biden to be weak or ineffectual, they probably would say yes. But if you asked them if his performance reminded them of Carter’s term, I think they’d be at sea. So I think as JVL says, there’s more going on. But I think it’s Ayers looking for a oearl-clutching headline.
Why would your teens think Biden is ineffectual? My son is 30 and thinks Biden is doing a great job.
My kids belong to the very left wing of the party. The delusional wing, that still believes a pol has to live up with their preferences 100% before they’ll give credit/support. I hope/pray/assume they will grow out of it with age & experience.
That's what's wonderful about young people. They think they discovered the truth about everything and are so sure and self righteous. It's beautiful to see even though you know they will eventually have to face reality at some point in their lives.
Off the top of my head, a lack of (what they see as) meaningful action regarding climate change, the failure of the student loan forgiveness, being moderately pro-Israel, and an ongoing affordable housing crisis. I'm actually generally content with how Biden has handled all of this, but a lot of younger people aren't interested in the relatively moderate gains we've made.
I don't think the student loan forgiveness failure was all Biden's fault....
No, it wasn't, but unfortunately as President he is going to attract most of the blame (or appreciation) for events that were out of his control.
Whit is comparing how *voters in 1980* felt about Carter compared to how *voters in 2024* feel about Biden. He wasn't comparing presidents. He wasn't talking about voters today feeling like they did back in 1980 (because they're not the same voters). He wasn't comparing the state of the economy in 1980 vs 2024. He wasn't comparing crime levels in 1980 vs 2024. He was comparing how voters today feel about Biden versus how voters in 1980 felt about Carter. That is the end of the comparison.
Now ask your kids if they think Joe Biden looks like a rehydrated piece of old beef jerky with some white hairs glued to his head and eyebrows, and if they're tired of out-of-touch Boomers and Silent Gen mummies being in charge of our national politics.
Why would they vote for Trump? He looks like drag queen who threw on a suit.
This is what I mean when I say that Americans do not want to make this choice. It's between rehydrated beef jerky with grey hairs glued onto it and a bloated drag queen with small hands and a shitty haircut in a poorly-fitted suit.
Yes, Americans would prefer other choices for President. And young people want young(-er) leaders. What else is new?
I’d still check Ayers’ sample demographics. I bet it’s weighed to Rs of a certain age.
Ayers' sample could be poorly weighted, but I don't think his larger observations are wrong. Then again I ain't a professional pollster, statistician, or pundit, so take that with a rather large grain of anecdotal salt.
I associate Ayers with — and I could be wrong — the R establishment. I’ve never felt like he has a good read on anyone not college-educated, white, and born after 1960. On those folks he’s very good. Everyone else, not so much.
Ayres is precisely the sort of highly partisan low-quality pollster that Jay Kuo and the folks at The Big Picture are talking about in this article: https://open.substack.com/pub/thinkbigpicture/p/weaponized-polling-republicans-trump-biden?r=1zr8b&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The entire idea of taking minuscule sample sizes and extrapolating them out to the 360M Americans via algorithms shows precisely what’s happened to the state of polling: it’s never been worse or more inaccurate, and the high costs of doing it right simply can’t be justified by the “research” companies. The vast majority of people in this country have very little interest in their day being interrupted by junk phone calls or texts, and they rightfully ignore them. So who ends up taking this calls? People that are NOT representative of this nation’s voters AT ALL and they have to take this flawed small sample and try to juice SOME kind of result from it! This is clearly what the computer science industry calls GIGO: “garbage in garbage out”. If the data input is questionable, the result of calculations CANNOT be counted on for accuracy. Period.
Why is it that the only “polling” that actually counts, ie at the ballot box, seems to end up with exactly the OPPOSITE result from the polls? What happened to the “red wave” in 2022? What happened to Hillary Clinton being the front runner in 2016? What’s happened in special elections and to ballot measures in SO many states over the last 2 or 3 years?
Sure, it’s not ALL because of low quality polls, but they certainly feed the narrative that the media wants to tell. “If It Bleeds, It Leads”….
I don't know that I'd call Whit Ayres a "highly partisan low-quality" pollster. Dude has been in the game for quite a while and isn't exactly a fan of Trump...
I don't disagree with the face value of the rest of what you wrote, but that said, many of the instances of modern polling shortfalls that you pointed to *have* fallen within the margin of error of polls. The percentage splits on polls are a *range of values* based on the margin of error but so often people just go with the single-value reporting that polls give and don't look at the error margin. If you actually +/- the margin of error values onto the single-value outputs, those value envelopes almost always contain the same values as actual outcomes, but people get stuck on the single-value outputs of polls without factoring in the margins so it looks like the polling is always wrong.
For example, take this ABC/WaPo poll released Nov 7th, 2016 (just before election) that goes 47/43 for Hillary:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-campaigns-end-close-unpopular-poll/story?id=43344414&mc_cid=0aa18f39a7&mc_eid=d103da7bcc
The margin of error on that poll is 2.5 points. If you add that 2.5 points to Trump's margin and take it away from Hillary's you get a 44.5/45.5 result instead in favor of Trump--which is within the polling margin of error:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a162016ElectionTrackingNo16.pdf
All of that said, Hillary still netted more votes than Trump did, so technically the poll was right with respect to national voting, it's just not reflective of the electoral college. Trump got 62,984,828 votes, Hillary had 65,853,514. That's pretty close to a 47-43 split (the percentages don't add to 100, so multiply combined vote totals by 1.1 for that missing 10% and then find 47% of that value, which is 66M--close to Hillary's actual numbers) and certainly within the margin of error of that poll in either direction.
What’s way worse is a large group of voters and likely plurality of them in swing states are totally fine with a would be dictator. Unlike Reagan, Trump is not an unknown quantity. He was president for four years, twice impeached and indicted for 91 counts. I would say if there was no social media and right winged echo chamber, the vibe would be different. But we are where we are and hope we catch a few lucky bounces along the way.
Yup. Totally different voters today, which is a reflection of what the totally different info environments have done to them in between.
And ignorant. Deliberately blind.