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Shane Gericke's avatar

Judge Merchan's willingness to take one for the team in order to destroy Trump's ability to win on appeal was magnificent. He ate so much . . . guff . . . from his barking-brained defendant that he must have gagged. But he did it anyway by NOT falling into the trap of throwing Trump into Riker's for his antics. Sweet applause for a judge who ran a terrific courtroom.

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Travis's avatar

"If I had to put odds on it, I’d say 54 percent for a conviction, 2 percent for an acquittal, and 44 percent for a hung jury that results in a mistrial."

These are a pretty good take on the odds I'd say. I also think a conviction is slightly more likely than a hung jury, but would not at all be surprised by a hung jury followed by Trump declaring "TOTAL EXHONERATION!" The system worked and that's what matters at the end of the day. Now it's in the hands of 12 NYCers. Even if there *is* a conviction I don't see Trump going to jail over it, I don't see this changing any of the support among Trump's base, and I don't even see it moving the needle much on the 6% of voters in the 6 swing states that are going to determine the outcome of this election. They'll be more focused on inflation, immigration, and Biden's lack of "piss and vinegar" as Tim's pod guest called it yesterday (unlike Commander, Biden himself is a dog that lacks a lot of bite).

Whether or not Trump wins this election will determine whether or not he faces justice in the cases with real prison term teeth--the TS documents and J6th cases. The Georgia case is basically frozen if Trump wins the election as well which would drag that case out into 2029 territory. The courts were never going to save us. This was always going to be about 6% of voters in 6 states determining the election outcome in 5 months' time.

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