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Craig Butcher's avatar

40 percent of the electorate would vote for Trump even if he disassembled a whimpering puppy with his bare hands and ate the raw pieces on television in front of the the crying child owner of the dog and then laughed at the kid. A quarter of those would do so reluctantly, the vulgarity of the thing being somewhat regrettable, but necessary to prevent the White House from being occupied by a person who might refer to people by their preferred pronouns. Another quarter will just vote for him for no real reason at all, just habit or cluelessness. The remaining half would cast their vote with enthusiasm because that's showing how to take on the Libs and the RINOs, and afterwards go home and tweet links to the video to all their friends and neighbors.

Bear in mind, this is America, where the average citizen is so intelligent and reasons so effectively that he chooses to spend $266 per year or more on bottled water that costs him 1,110 times as much that way as it does coming out of the tap at home. We can confidently expect him to apply the same degree of perspicacity to public affairs.

Of the remaining 60 percent of the electorate, half will vote for the Democrat for whatever reason, and the other half is up for grabs. At least half of those will vote for the Republican this time because whatever, and they are sick and tired of not having gas get cheaper and cheaper, and they wanted a pony for Christmas but didn't get one -- or they did get one, but the oats cost money, and they didn't realize there would also be a lot of manure to deal with. And if there is a recession (odds very good, look at the yield curve!) and/or the dollar has collapsed because the House has precipitated a default, and there is a banking crisis and China has moved on Taiwan and any number of other such chickens even now homing in on 2024 have come to roost, that's it.

I can't see the odds of any Republican carrying the election at less than at least 3 out of 5.

I am old enough to remember Jimmy Carter running for office promising to try and give the American people a government that was as good as they are.

It's taken a while, but I think his promise is very likely to finally be fulfilled.

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