It is still my contention/suspicion that Trump will bully the RNC into announcing he is the official Republican Party candidate for president in 2024 and will cancel the republican primaries. He wants to be coronated, not elected, and will not stand to have contenders from within the party. If the RNC pushes back on it, he'll threaten to…
It is still my contention/suspicion that Trump will bully the RNC into announcing he is the official Republican Party candidate for president in 2024 and will cancel the republican primaries. He wants to be coronated, not elected, and will not stand to have contenders from within the party. If the RNC pushes back on it, he'll threaten to run as an independent. The RNC knows that will be, as Kanye West put it, "death con 3" to the party.
I can see this scenario in play given who is still running the RNC. I can also see a scenario where GOP donors put their money behind a third candidate to run as a viable independent and torch Trump's campaign. In any event, a lot is going to depend on who the Dems run.
It has been pointed out, perhaps in a Bulwark article, that the GOP leadership pretends to be making such decisions but it is pretty much out of their hands. It will be decided by Trump and the rabid GOP base. Although some polls do show DeSantis ahead of Trump, I suspect they are polling normal GOP voters not the much more vocal and powerful base. If they still want Trump, and I suspect they will, and Trump still wants the nomination, and he does, he'll get it.
I doubt he'll do that because it would be a bad strategy for him. He gains the nomination by taking on his foes one by one. Each folds because they don't want to be the mole in his Whack-a-Mole game. After beating one down, that's one less against him and one step closer to being nominated. He just repeats that process until the win is his.
Right now a bunch of people are kind of hanging around deciding whether they are going to contest the GoP primary or not. Most of the people hanging around in indecision probably should not bother as their chance is close to zero.
There are really only two contenders at this point, Trump and DeSantis. Six of one and a half-dozen of the other, but DeSantis would have (IMO) better odds of winning the general in 2024--SO LONG AS TRUMP DOESN"T BURN THE GoP DOWN.
Most of the GoP leadershit is standing around with their thumbs up their ass, knowing what they SHOULD do and lacking the courage to do it. As always, they are hoping VERY VERY hard that someone else will come along and solve their trump problem.
Hope is NOT a strategy.
I do not think that an indictment from the DoJ is going to slow Trump down--in fact I would bet the reverse... so no hope there.
He may drop dead... but the perversity of the universe tends to the maximum and so I kind of think that he is still going to be around for quite a few years yet. He seems like one of those people everybody wished would drop dead that lives to 100 out of sheer cussedness.
He is already non compos mentis and was in 2016, so no hope there.
As I said here earlier in another thread, DeSantis is waiting for the right moment--which may, in fact, not come. After Trump's statement about disregarding the Constitution (and the incredibly meh GoP response) he is likely even more concerned (or should be if he had half a brain).
The statement from Trump was, in effect, pure schoolyard bully stuff. It is something that Trump has a VERY good feel for and instinctively uses to good effect and usually at a good time. The man is not smart in the conventional sense, but he has superior bully instincts. Comes from a lifetime of experience.
Trump may or may not recognize the absurdity of what he said. He certainly does not care about the larger ramifications or the legal ramifications (but as discussed yesterday, the phrasing has a lot of plausible deniability built into it).
It was a statement of power. I am going to say this totally outrageous thing that flies in the face of "conservative" myth and propaganda. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? I dare you. I double dog dare you. Here, let me slap you in the face with my dick while I say it... still nothing?
And this guy holds NO institutional authority or position. No office in the government or party. No actual institutional power. He DOES have a cult, though.
Annnnnnnd you get (in effect) crickets. Who has the whip hand here? It isn't the GoP leadershit or the GoP donor class. Or the potential GoP challengers.
I am increasingly convinced that DeSantis is NOT going to find the right moment.
I am also convinced that Trump WILL burn the GoP down around him if he does not win the nomination... because the GoP has no plan to stop him. No way to stop him. They have demonstrated their abject cowardice multiple times.
It doesn't matter what the polls say. It doesn't really matter what the donors want. It doesn't matter what Faux says, because they are middle of the pack now in GoP media terms. What matters is what Trump wants. Unless you can separate him from his cult, there is no way to stop him from torching the GoP... and there is NO way that the GoP leadershit is going to put themselves in a position to trigger that torching if they can help it.
I have stocked up on popcorn for the shitshow that is coming. Rs don't want to, and won't, stand up to trump and kick him to 5th Ave where he is free to shoot anyone and keep his supporters. They would prefer Ds do the dirty work for them. I don't credit Ds with masterminding Rs having to do their own dirty work, but I am happy to sit back and enjoy the upcoming R demise. Or at least, that is what the previews reveal is coming.
Ya'll should have heeded Lindsey Graham's prophetic words in 2015 about deserving your own demise if you supported this joke of a candidate, back when he was his own little joke living on an island of one. Hoo boy, has that island of inhabitants grown!
IMHO, DeSantis won't be the GOP nominee. He will either not run due to Trump-fear or run and be blown apart by Trump and the normally harsh scrutiny that every presidential candidate must endure. Trump's got the nomination if he's still living, wants it, and isn't in prison. If Trump doesn't run and DeSantis blows up, the field is wide open and it's anyone's guess who comes out on top.
Well, Trump is already running... and I seriously doubt that any legal proceeding against him will be quick enough to land him in jail before 2024. And being in jail is no bar to running. Being a convicted felon is not a bar to running.
I have to say, that despite everyone making fun of TFG's lawyers and the occasional article about how the legal system is allegedly holding him to account, his lawyers have performed just fine in terms of keeping him out of jail and free to go about his business. There's a clear statute for Congress to get the tax returns, but how many years did it take?
That is by design. Generally, unless you are well-heeled or can get lawyers to work pro bono or on contingency, you can only work the court system so much... and you generally don't get to court shop and you do not have judges you appointed on the bench.
If you have enough money (your lawyers only need to be marginally competent) you can drag things out for a LONG time--long enough that your opponent runs out of time or money or both and either gives up or is forced to settle... and then your lawyers eat most of the settlement.
You can even outlast the US government (particularly if the government changes hands).
Given the existing dynamics, anyone you get will be just as bad as Trump. I am just hoping for some kind of challenger that actually has some chops because the bloodbath will further damage the GoP, regardless of who comes out on top.
I don't think he'll get a coronation, not after the midterms. The party elites want him gone too much. That said, I don't think he needs one to win. For Desantis to beat him in the primary, he essentially needs ALL the- I won't call them "Never Again Trump" because that's inaccurate, but "I'd Prefer Someone Else" voters- to win the nomination.
Simple solution to that problem if you're Trump. Flood the field with MAGA-ish candidates. Tell Hawley and Cotton and Cruz to run. Promise them all cabinet positions if they focus their fire on Desantis instead of him. Maybe Trump only gets 35-40% support in the primary but it's enough to win if that remaining 60% is split between multiple candidates (this is exactly what happened in 2016, after all). Once the nomination is cinched, all those IPSE voters will come around. After all, can't let Biden get a 2nd term, no matter the cost.
I think they are waiting on him to keep losing support and eventually get indicted (or die). When that happens they can regretfully support someone else for 'the good of the party' while this unprecedented move by the Biden Justice Department plays out.
I know that they know that him running as a 3rd party would be devastating, but I think they will try to thread the needle because him running as an R is likely going to be pretty bad for them too, and they'll look to avoid that outcome. All along the republican party hasn't wanted to take its medicine, and they'll keep on trying to avoid it, likely to their detriment.
Speaking of medicine, Trump's age adjusted actuarial odds are that he will live another 10 years. Tack on an extra few year for having the best possible medical care in America and most likely he's gonna be around 2 more election cycles, if not 3.
Let's not pretend their would be any degree of disability, mental or physical, that would disqualify him in the eyes of voters. Not as we stare down the possibility of "Senator Herschel Walker".
It is still my contention/suspicion that Trump will bully the RNC into announcing he is the official Republican Party candidate for president in 2024 and will cancel the republican primaries. He wants to be coronated, not elected, and will not stand to have contenders from within the party. If the RNC pushes back on it, he'll threaten to run as an independent. The RNC knows that will be, as Kanye West put it, "death con 3" to the party.
Get your popcorn ready.
Please God, let him run as an independent.
I can see this scenario in play given who is still running the RNC. I can also see a scenario where GOP donors put their money behind a third candidate to run as a viable independent and torch Trump's campaign. In any event, a lot is going to depend on who the Dems run.
It has been pointed out, perhaps in a Bulwark article, that the GOP leadership pretends to be making such decisions but it is pretty much out of their hands. It will be decided by Trump and the rabid GOP base. Although some polls do show DeSantis ahead of Trump, I suspect they are polling normal GOP voters not the much more vocal and powerful base. If they still want Trump, and I suspect they will, and Trump still wants the nomination, and he does, he'll get it.
I doubt he'll do that because it would be a bad strategy for him. He gains the nomination by taking on his foes one by one. Each folds because they don't want to be the mole in his Whack-a-Mole game. After beating one down, that's one less against him and one step closer to being nominated. He just repeats that process until the win is his.
Right now a bunch of people are kind of hanging around deciding whether they are going to contest the GoP primary or not. Most of the people hanging around in indecision probably should not bother as their chance is close to zero.
There are really only two contenders at this point, Trump and DeSantis. Six of one and a half-dozen of the other, but DeSantis would have (IMO) better odds of winning the general in 2024--SO LONG AS TRUMP DOESN"T BURN THE GoP DOWN.
Most of the GoP leadershit is standing around with their thumbs up their ass, knowing what they SHOULD do and lacking the courage to do it. As always, they are hoping VERY VERY hard that someone else will come along and solve their trump problem.
Hope is NOT a strategy.
I do not think that an indictment from the DoJ is going to slow Trump down--in fact I would bet the reverse... so no hope there.
He may drop dead... but the perversity of the universe tends to the maximum and so I kind of think that he is still going to be around for quite a few years yet. He seems like one of those people everybody wished would drop dead that lives to 100 out of sheer cussedness.
He is already non compos mentis and was in 2016, so no hope there.
As I said here earlier in another thread, DeSantis is waiting for the right moment--which may, in fact, not come. After Trump's statement about disregarding the Constitution (and the incredibly meh GoP response) he is likely even more concerned (or should be if he had half a brain).
The statement from Trump was, in effect, pure schoolyard bully stuff. It is something that Trump has a VERY good feel for and instinctively uses to good effect and usually at a good time. The man is not smart in the conventional sense, but he has superior bully instincts. Comes from a lifetime of experience.
Trump may or may not recognize the absurdity of what he said. He certainly does not care about the larger ramifications or the legal ramifications (but as discussed yesterday, the phrasing has a lot of plausible deniability built into it).
It was a statement of power. I am going to say this totally outrageous thing that flies in the face of "conservative" myth and propaganda. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? I dare you. I double dog dare you. Here, let me slap you in the face with my dick while I say it... still nothing?
And this guy holds NO institutional authority or position. No office in the government or party. No actual institutional power. He DOES have a cult, though.
Annnnnnnd you get (in effect) crickets. Who has the whip hand here? It isn't the GoP leadershit or the GoP donor class. Or the potential GoP challengers.
I am increasingly convinced that DeSantis is NOT going to find the right moment.
I am also convinced that Trump WILL burn the GoP down around him if he does not win the nomination... because the GoP has no plan to stop him. No way to stop him. They have demonstrated their abject cowardice multiple times.
It doesn't matter what the polls say. It doesn't really matter what the donors want. It doesn't matter what Faux says, because they are middle of the pack now in GoP media terms. What matters is what Trump wants. Unless you can separate him from his cult, there is no way to stop him from torching the GoP... and there is NO way that the GoP leadershit is going to put themselves in a position to trigger that torching if they can help it.
That is so depressing.
Does it make sense to call them GOP leadership when they have so little ability to lead? GOP figureheads? GOP functionaries? GOP apparatchiks?
Look CAREFULLY at the word I use ;)
I have stocked up on popcorn for the shitshow that is coming. Rs don't want to, and won't, stand up to trump and kick him to 5th Ave where he is free to shoot anyone and keep his supporters. They would prefer Ds do the dirty work for them. I don't credit Ds with masterminding Rs having to do their own dirty work, but I am happy to sit back and enjoy the upcoming R demise. Or at least, that is what the previews reveal is coming.
Ya'll should have heeded Lindsey Graham's prophetic words in 2015 about deserving your own demise if you supported this joke of a candidate, back when he was his own little joke living on an island of one. Hoo boy, has that island of inhabitants grown!
IMHO, DeSantis won't be the GOP nominee. He will either not run due to Trump-fear or run and be blown apart by Trump and the normally harsh scrutiny that every presidential candidate must endure. Trump's got the nomination if he's still living, wants it, and isn't in prison. If Trump doesn't run and DeSantis blows up, the field is wide open and it's anyone's guess who comes out on top.
Well, Trump is already running... and I seriously doubt that any legal proceeding against him will be quick enough to land him in jail before 2024. And being in jail is no bar to running. Being a convicted felon is not a bar to running.
I have to say, that despite everyone making fun of TFG's lawyers and the occasional article about how the legal system is allegedly holding him to account, his lawyers have performed just fine in terms of keeping him out of jail and free to go about his business. There's a clear statute for Congress to get the tax returns, but how many years did it take?
Yes, it's a sad comment on our legal system. It was just not built to deliver justice against such a well-funded onslaught.
That is by design. Generally, unless you are well-heeled or can get lawyers to work pro bono or on contingency, you can only work the court system so much... and you generally don't get to court shop and you do not have judges you appointed on the bench.
If you have enough money (your lawyers only need to be marginally competent) you can drag things out for a LONG time--long enough that your opponent runs out of time or money or both and either gives up or is forced to settle... and then your lawyers eat most of the settlement.
You can even outlast the US government (particularly if the government changes hands).
All the justice money can buy - that’s the justice system in capitalistic societies - because everything - everything - is based on money.
It's amazing what you can get away with when you're allowed to court shop and judge shop and appeal indefinitely.
That's all true, unfortunately.
;)
Given the existing dynamics, anyone you get will be just as bad as Trump. I am just hoping for some kind of challenger that actually has some chops because the bloodbath will further damage the GoP, regardless of who comes out on top.
If only…..ya know?
As I said, six of one and a half dozen of the other.
I need a mathematician to game theory this out. There's a prisoners dilemma going on here, I can see the outlines of it.
It isn't really a prisoner's dilemma.
The first issue is that the rewards and punishments are unclear and uncertain. There may not even be any, depending upon what happens.
The second issue is that the "prisoners" ARE in communication with each other.
These two issues render a "prisoner's dilemma" analysis of the situation pointless.
Also, neither of the prisoners are rational actors--particularly Trump.
As with most game theory models or ethical thought experiments, the reality is so divorced from the model/experiment as to render it useless.
I don't think he'll get a coronation, not after the midterms. The party elites want him gone too much. That said, I don't think he needs one to win. For Desantis to beat him in the primary, he essentially needs ALL the- I won't call them "Never Again Trump" because that's inaccurate, but "I'd Prefer Someone Else" voters- to win the nomination.
Simple solution to that problem if you're Trump. Flood the field with MAGA-ish candidates. Tell Hawley and Cotton and Cruz to run. Promise them all cabinet positions if they focus their fire on Desantis instead of him. Maybe Trump only gets 35-40% support in the primary but it's enough to win if that remaining 60% is split between multiple candidates (this is exactly what happened in 2016, after all). Once the nomination is cinched, all those IPSE voters will come around. After all, can't let Biden get a 2nd term, no matter the cost.
Very clever! Cruz doesn't care if Trump calls him some more names. What does he have to lose?
I think he'll try. I don't think he will succeed.
I think they are waiting on him to keep losing support and eventually get indicted (or die). When that happens they can regretfully support someone else for 'the good of the party' while this unprecedented move by the Biden Justice Department plays out.
I know that they know that him running as a 3rd party would be devastating, but I think they will try to thread the needle because him running as an R is likely going to be pretty bad for them too, and they'll look to avoid that outcome. All along the republican party hasn't wanted to take its medicine, and they'll keep on trying to avoid it, likely to their detriment.
Speaking of medicine, Trump's age adjusted actuarial odds are that he will live another 10 years. Tack on an extra few year for having the best possible medical care in America and most likely he's gonna be around 2 more election cycles, if not 3.
Let's not pretend their would be any degree of disability, mental or physical, that would disqualify him in the eyes of voters. Not as we stare down the possibility of "Senator Herschel Walker".
Exactly. That's why I said to get your popcorn ready. He will burn everything down if he doesn't get his way.