
(Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
No one has learned anything.
The last six years have been chock full of lessons, cautionary tales, and the sort of clarifying moments that come with placing your face on a hot stove. On Earth 2.0, the impeachments, sedition, the prospect of indictment, and electoral defeats would marvelously focus the mind, especially for Republicans.
After Mitt Romneyās defeat in 2012, the GOP was so rattled that it actually conducted its own autopsy, which made a series of recommendations for fixing the part that it promptly and thoroughly ignored.
After 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, the party needed an exorcism. Instead, the GOP looked itself in the mirror, shrugged, and said, looks good to me.
So we get this: āGOP report shows plan to ramp up focus on disproven election fraud claims.ā
And this:
After GOP underperformance in Novemberās midterm elections, the Republican National Committee is doubling down on its anti-abortion stance, formally urging GOP lawmakers and campaigns to āgo on offense in the 2024 election cycleā and to pass the strictest anti-abortion legislation possible.
I had some thoughts:

No, heās not punching back
Speaking of not learning anythingā¦
Over the weekend, Donald Trump ramped up his attacks on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with his usual mixture of bombast, name-calling, and historical revisionism.
Trump apparently decided that the nickname Desanctimonious had too may syllables, so he is now hitting him as RINO Globalist Ron, which is both snappier and more user-friendly for right-wing conspiracists.
āThe real Ron is a RINO GLOBALIST, who closed quickly down Florida and even its beaches. Loved the Vaccines and wasted big money on āTesting.ā How quickly people forget!,ā Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
Escalating even further, Trump put out a video of a younger DeSantis saying that wanted grow up to be like Paul Ryan, which in MAGAWorld is blood libel-ish stuff. āWOW!ā Trump exclaimed in ALL CAPS.
DeSantisās response?
The New York Daily News reported āRon DeSantis hits back after Trump launches attack on COVID and ādisloyaltyā.ā
In a sign the two Republican rivals could be headed for open political warfare, DeSantis dismissed Trumpās attacks as no different from any other political potshots and said Florida voters gave him a decisive thumbs up on his handling of the pandemic.
Politicoās headline declared: āDeSantis snaps back at Trump: I got reelected.ā
āI roll out of bed, I have people attacking me from all angles, itās been happening for many, many years,ā DeSantis said during a press conference in Bradenton where he was asked about Trumpās recent digs at him.
āThe good thing is, is that the people are able to render a judgment on that whether they re-elect you or not. And Iām happy to say ā you know in my case ā not only did we win re-election, we won with the highest percentage of the vote that any Republican governor candidate has had in the history of the state of Florida. ... That verdict has been rendered by the people of the state of Florida.ā
But you see what didnāt happen here: DeSantis did not actually hit back or snap back, or punch back.
He just basically came out and said āScoreboard!ā He didnāt even say Trumpās name.
Itās still not clear whether he ever will.
And this is the GOPās lingering problem. As the NYT noted yesterday, potential rivals are still āwary of becoming a sacrificial lamb on Mr. Trumpās altar of devastating nicknames and eternal fury.ā
So they are waiting for someone else to do it for them. Or they are waiting for the indictments. Or a meteor. Or for Trump to die, or just go away. Writing in the Atlantic, McKay Coppins calls this magical thinking, āa plague of self-deception among party elites [that] contains obvious echoes of Trumpās early rise to power.ā
Terry Sullivan, who ran Marco Rubioās 2016 presidential campaign, told me that Trumpās rivals failed to beat him that year in large part because they were āalways convinced that his self-inflicted demise was imminent.ā
āThere is an old quote that has been attributed to Lee Atwater: āWhen your enemy is in the process of drowning, throw him a brick,āā Sullivan told me. āNone of Donald Trumpās opponents ever have the balls to throw him the damn brick. They just hope someone else will. Hope isnāt a winning strategy.ā
So, despite the headlines, DeSantis is not throwing him the damn brick. Like Trumpās rivals in 2016, he doesnāt want to risk Trumpās wrath or offending the still-loyal MAGA base. āWhy risk alienating his supporters when nature will take its course sooner or later,ā writes Coppins.
Peter Meijer, a former Republican representative who left office this month, termed this strategy actuarial arbitrage.
āYou have a lot of folks who are just wishing for [Trumpās] mortal demise,ā Meijer told me. āI want to be clear: Iām not in that camp. But Iāve heard from a lot of people who will go onstage and put on the red hat, and then give me a call the next day and say, āI canāt wait until this guy dies.ā And itās like, Good Lord.ā (Trumpās mother died at 88 and his father at 93, so this strategy isnāt exactly foolproof.)
***
The result is this phony war, in which the Great Florida Hope plays rope-a-dope with TFG.
One guy who gets this dynamic is progressive pundit Dean Obeidallah, who notes the asymmetry of the Trump-DeSantis contest so far.
Trump repeatedly opens fire upon DeSantis, who has failed to respond, with the āoverwhelming forceā that he vowed he would unleash. In fact, DeSantis hasnāt fired back at all. It appears the Florida governor is backing down from the fight.
Maybe DeSantis is just waiting for Godot⦠or Fani⦠or Jack.
Perhaps DeSantis ā a Harvard Law School graduate and former federal prosecutor ā is waiting to see if Trump is criminally indicted, in the hopes he doesnāt have to meet him on the field of battle. Just last week, Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis told a judge that ādecisions are imminentā in her investigation into efforts by Trump and his allies to interfere in the 2020 election in Georgia.
Thereās also special counsel Jack Smithās investigation into Trump over the January 6, 2021, attack and the trove of classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago that might yield charges. While Trump can still legally run for president while under indictment ā or even if convicted of a crime ā as a practical matter it would likely be devastating to his election prospects.
But, writes Obeidallah, āif DeSantis wants to win in 2024, he canāt keep ducking Trumpās barbs.ā At some point, āyou have to put up a fight.ā
There could come a time when GOP voters view DeSantisā refusal to defend himself and punch back as a sign of weakness.
The longer he is silent in the face of Trumpās barrage of punches, the more likely people will ask themselves, as Rockyās nemesis did: If he aināt no coward, why wonāt he fight?
Nikkiās Choice
Back in 2021, Tim Albertaās Politico profile of the former UN ambassador was headlined: āNikki Haleyās Time for Choosing,ā with this provocative subhead:
The 2024 hopeful canāt decide who she wants to beāthe leader of a post-Trump GOP or a āfriendā to the president who tried to sabotage democracy.
She still canāt decide. But sheās running anyway.
**
Back in 2021, when she spoke with Alberta, you might recall that she had a momentary flash of something like conscience:
āI think [Trump] is going to find himself further and further isolated,ā Haley said. āI think his business is suffering at this point. I think heās lost any sort of political viability he was going to have. I think heās lost his social media, which meant the world to him. I mean, I think heās lost the things that really could have kept him moving.ā
I reminded her that Trump has been left for dead before; that the base always rallied behind him. I also reminded her that the argument for impeachmentāand convictionāis that he would be barred from holding federal office again.
āHeās not going to run for federal office again,ā Haley said.
But what if he does? Or at least, what if he spends the next four years threatening to? Can the Republican Party heal with Trump in the picture?
āI donāt think heās going to be in the picture,ā she said, matter-of-factly. āI donāt think he can. Heās fallen so far.ā
This was the most certainty Iād heard from any Republican in the aftermath of January 6. And Haley wasnāt done.
āWe need to acknowledge he let us down,ā she said. āHe went down a path he shouldnāt have, and we shouldnāt have followed him, and we shouldnāt have listened to him. And we canāt let that ever happen again.ā
But that was then. After a brief flirtation with independence, Haley returned to the fold, posing for pictures with Diamond and Silk, and repeating hot MAGA mantras on cue.
So what can we expect from her campaign?
One big tell: Trump doesnāt seem to mind. He says he encouraged her, and he hasnāt started calling her names. Why? Because Trump knows that the bigger the field ā especially with candidates who will never take a shot at him ā helps him. He doesnāt need a majority of GOP votes to win renomination. He only needs a plurality in the winner-take-all primaries, so the more the merrier.
And he knows that he has nothing to worry about from Nikki circa 2023.
Whoās up for a podcast?

Check out the latest Bulwark Podcast here.
The Next Level here.
Beg to Differ here.
The Focus Group here.
Just Between Us (with me and Mona Charen) for Bulwark + members here
Andā¦
TONIGHT: Thursday Night Bulwark for February 2
Special guest Radley Balko, who has long covered policing in America and now publishes The Watch on Substack, will join Ted, Mona, and JVL for a deep dive into what happened in Memphis and the state of policing in America. The program will start at 8:00 p.m. ET on Zoom. Details here.
Quick Hits
Gaming Out Whitmer vs. Trump and DeSantis, By Amanda Carpenter
Trump Is Losing the Grifter Class to DeSantis, By JVL
The GOP Is Just Obnoxious, By David Frum
Trumpās Escalation in the āGender Warā By Giselle Donnelly
How Rod Dreher Caused an International Scandal in Eastern Europe By BalƔzs GulyƔs
On DeSantis not āthrowing the brickā⦠the mind-numbing thing of it all, is if Trump IS indicted, we CAN expect DeSantis (and everyone else running in the GOP primary) to throw bricks at the Justice Department/Georgia case for bringing the indictments. The cowardice is unbelievable.
Nikki Haley has about as good of odds of becoming President as I do. So, enderak08 2024?