
IF YOU ARE READING THIS here at The Bulwark, you are likely a well-informed voter closely following the campaign.1 But chances are many of the people you surround yourself with are not. Ask them why, and they will probably tell you something like, Yeah, Iām going to vote, but I canāt take any more Trump, so life is better without the news.
Voters like that could actually sink Joe Bidenās re-election.
Nearly every friend I have who isnāt in politics, as well as many relatives, have checked out. Most of them did so in November 2020, as soon as Biden won. Many of these disengagers believe Biden will win this year and donāt know that Trump is attracting new votes, is ahead in all of the swing-state polls, and is well positioned for a second term. They donāt know that Trump is openly planning for a new authoritarian government that centralizes power in the presidency and defies the separation of powers. They donāt know he says he intends to prosecute Biden and Gen. Mark Milley and members of Congress who served on the House January 6th Committee. They donāt know that several Republicans vying to be Trumpās running mate wonāt commit to accepting the results of the election and believe Mike Pence should not have certified the 2020 election. They havenāt followed any of the cases against Trump and donāt know the New York case that concluded with his conviction last week wasāin all likelihoodāthe first and last Trump will face before the election, or ever. They have no idea that Trump now regularly proclaims internal, domestic enemies āwithinā are more dangerous to America than China or Russia. They have no idea what Project 2025 is.
They probably didnāt watch this weekend as Republicans, en masse, rejected a verdict, a jury, and the conduct of a judge. Americans who donāt support Biden, and are open to voting for Trump, probably didnāt either.
With roughly 80 percent of the electorate unhappy with the general election rematch between President Biden and former President Trump, itās not surprising that many voters are looking away.
A Pew Research poll in April found 28 percent of respondents said they arenāt following the election too closely and 13 percent said they arenāt following it closely at all. The survey showed that while more voters were following the election very or fairly closely than the share that was in April 2020, 62 percent of respondents said they are already āworn outā by it. In the same poll from four years ago, that level of fatigue with political news, 61 percent, didnāt register until October 2020. The new polling showed those following closely expressed less burnout than those who arenāt, and Republicans were less likely to say they were worn out than Democrats by a margin of 58ā66 percent.
In a series of focus groups Pew conducted a year ago, voters expressed frustration with both parties, and researchers found āthey have a sense that politics is everywhereāand often in a bad way. They find themselves overwhelmed by how much information they confront in their day-to-day life.ā
The Biden campaign has now concluded that these voters must be targeted with vigorous messaging. Bidenās team had hoped that polls would shift when voters ārememberedā Trump and recoiled in horror, but that never happened. Trump leads consistently.
āOur task at this point is engaging them when they donāt want to engage with us,ā an unnamed Biden campaign pollster told NBC News. āNot waiting for them to tune in, but instead sort of being there with a persistent message.ā
The campaign aims to shore up weakness in the Biden coalition with events that highlight gun violence and the threat to reproductive rights as it has found young and minority voters tuning out āin ways that we havenāt seen before,ā the pollster said.
The challenge is twofold. Itās not just that disaffected voters are frustrated with the economy and inflation and choosing between a 77-year-old former president and an 81-year-old current president, but that the movement away from the consumption of mainstream media has escalated since 2020. Younger Americans are increasingly getting their news from TikTok, and Trump is already dominating there.
A new survey by Blueprint, a Democratic-aligned polling operation, offered an opening for the Biden campaign. It showed young people are not aware of most or many of the most offensive statements Trump made as a 2016 candidate and as president but that a majority of respondents were offended once they learned them. Instructively, they took offense with statements Trump made regarding race, women, and immigrants but not his lies about the election being stolen.
Itās hard to reach these voters, and itās hard to interest these voters, but it is critical since many will make a last-minute decision and vote. Many of the most checked-out voters are supporting Trump. An NBC News poll conducted in mid-April found Trump had a 26-point advantage with the 15 percent of respondents who said they didnāt follow election news closely. Among the 54 percent who said they consume their news from television and newspapers, Biden was ahead by 11 points.
Since many of these disaffected voters are unreachable, itās critical that formerly engaged Biden voters tune back in. Those who oppose Trump but check out are not energized; they are not sounding the alarm, sharing information, and articulating the stakes.
A recent poll from the Survey Center on American Life reported only 27 percent of registered voters say the 2024 election is the most important of their lifetime. That number is alarmingly lowābut it can be raised by increased voter engagement.
Check in on your friends and family. We only have a few more months.
You are also, like most Bulwark readers, above average in the looks department.