We Are in the Worst-Case Scenario
The November 2024 version of you would be shocked at what the September 2025 version accepts as reality.
1. Plans
After Trump’s re-election I did my best to imagine how things might go better than we feared.
Then I laid out my worst-case scenario. You can revisit it here, if you like to wallow. I’ll give you the short version:
Robert Kennedy Jr. attacks public health institutions in meaningful ways.
“Mass deportations” are mostly for show.
Trump spends his energies waging war against the federal government itself, taking control of the institutional levers of power in an attempt to fundamentally change the system.
We’d see wholesale corruption of the FBI and Justice Department, turning the rule of law into nothing more than a political cudgel to punish the president’s enemies.
And finally, a purge of military leadership in an attempt to make the armed forces personally loyal to Trump.
We are only nine months in and these mile markers are all far in the rearview mirror. I want to talk about this today for a few reasons:
To understand where my imagination failed.
To see how far we’ve already traveled.
To re-anchor our understanding and expectations of what comes next.
This will not be a fun exercise. We should do it anyway.
2. JVL Is Sometimes Wrong
Let’s start with my failures of imagination. In trying to forecast the worst-case scenario I did not foresee that Trump would: