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Transcript
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SPEAKER 3
I just don't think there has been nearly enough of a recognition of how cataclysmic this sort of war would be if it broke out. It's not going to be a three week war where the Chinese try to invade Taiwan and we try to sink the invasion fleet and then the losing side says good game and it's over.
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SPEAKER 2
Welcome to Shield of the Republic, a podcast sponsored by the Bulwark and the Miller Center of Public Affairs. I'm Eric Edelman, counselor at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a nonresident fellow at the Miller Center and a Bulwark contributor. My colleague and partner in this enterprise, Elliot Cohen, is traveling.
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But we're happy today to be joined by a frequent guest, and I think now the most frequent guest, passing Peter Fever. a friend of the podcast and prodigious, prolific historian and author Hal Brands. Hal, welcome to Shield of the Republic again.

With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes back prolific historian and author Hal Brands to the show to discuss his forthcoming book The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2025) which will be published in mid-January. They discuss the ideas and careers of geopolitical thinkers Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, and Nicholas Spykman whose views about the influence of geography on international affairs became enormously influential among political leaders of all stripes in the early to mid-Twentieth Century. They touch on the costs of deterrence versus the much higher costs of great power wars, the breakdown of the international trading system in the 1930s and how it presaged military conflict, why regional crises in the interwar period rapidly metastasized into the most costly global conflict in history and how our contemporary world resembles the world of 1940-1941. They also discuss the rise of China and the bipartisan consensus it has spawned on diagnosing our current international environment but has not yet led to a bipartisan execution of policies to remedy the situation. They also discuss the rise of geopolitical super predators in the 1930s, the evolution of "Fortress Eurasia" -- the emerging alliance among the PRC, Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senator Mitch McConnell's recent Foreign Affairs article arguing against retrenchment, and why it is hard to imagine a future conflict not becoming a global conflict today.

Shield of the Republic will be taking a break for the holidays and will return in early January.

The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World:

https://a.co/d/2XQ7lWa

The Price of American Retreat:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/price-american-retreat-trump-mitch-mcconnell

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Laura Holt's avatar

Fascinating conversation. My own copy of Brand’s The Eurasian Century is open on my lap, my reading paused by my urge to return to this comment space to thank you and the entire Bulwark crew for all that each of you is doing to keep us informed. Thank you, all of you, including Brand for his beautifully written study.

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J.W. Ratliff's avatar

"War is the continuation of politics by other means" - von Clausewitz

Our daughter is home from college for the holidays. She has one more semester before she graduates with highest honors from Stevens Institute of Technology with a degree in mathematics and computer science. My brilliant French wife and I have done our best to instill in her a respect for disciplined achievement in various areas, primarily music, reading and mathematics. The concept of delayed gratification and self-worth achieved through overcoming difficult challenges has been ingrained into her character. I had a conversation with her yesterday about the benefits of paying off a mortgage as soon as possible rather than spending the extra money on other short term desires. She immediately grasped the logic of our decision to proactively pay off ours. This is relevant because the United States electorate has obviously become incapable of such reasoning. The point that deterrents are a much less expensive way to deal with an inevitable problem is only something that can be grasped by people with disciplined minds. I too stay up at night worrying about what is to come, not right now, but down the road after this administration has inflicted yet another four years of corrupt, obtuse isolationist ignorance. I fear that only when it's too late to avoid catastrophe will the people realize, if they ever do at all, that they were dead wrong. The rest of us, including my daughter will pay the price.

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Jennifer Landon's avatar

Thanks for another informative though troubling episode. I have zero confidence that the incoming administration has any understanding of our nation’s role in global stability, nor do they have interest in learning about it. I am especially concerned about our degraded armament situation and the pressure our branches are under to train and repair while being asked to deploy all too frequently—the Navy most of all. I’m looking forward to the book.

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Darren K's avatar

Everyone needs to be awake to a new possibility: The USA vs. NATO.

Trump pulls us out of Nato, then invades Greenland--which would require the remaining Nato states to decide whether or not to invoke article 5 in order to defend, what is, in fact, part of Denmark. It's a nightmare scenario that I didn't even think was possible.

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Jane Tishkoff's avatar

You might consider having as a guest Mel Gurtov, author of “Engaging China” - really interesting book.

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Kurt's avatar

Excellent podcast! It is incredible the number of significant challenges that we are facing in this country, both foreign and domestic.

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Lee Newberry Jones's avatar

Very valuable. Thank you both.

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0:47
But we're happy today to be joined by a frequent guest, and I think now the most frequent guest, passing Peter Fever. a friend of the podcast and prodigious, prolific historian and author Hal Brands. Hal, welcome to Shield of the Republic again.