Donald Trump, Welcome To The League of Globalists
For Trump, America First isn’t an actual principle. It means whatever he says it means.
Minnesota is reeling from the shootings of several state lawmakers, but Donald Trump wants you to know he’s much too busy to call Gov. Tim Walz about the tragedy. After all, that’s time he could be using to slag on Tim Walz. “I think the governor of Minnesota is so whacked out,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One early this morning. “I’m not calling. Why would I call him? I could call and say, ‘Hi, how you doing?’ The guy doesn’t have a clue. He’s a mess. I could be nice and call, but why waste time?” Happy Tuesday.
Trump’s Iran End Game
by William Kristol
Donald Trump believes, as we all know, in an “America First” policy. At 7:24 p.m. yesterday evening, with war raging in the Middle East and debate erupting among the president’s supporters as to what he should or shouldn’t do about it, the president took to Truth Social to explain what “America First” means.
AMERICA FIRST means many GREAT things, including the fact that, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!1
Give credit where credit is due. “America First means many great things” is an elegant formulation for the fact that America First means whatever Donald Trump wants it to mean. And if you think—as I do—that a genuine America First policy would be today, as it was in 1940, foolish and dangerous, you’re pleased that Trump is basically throwing America First under the globalist bus.
In his post, Trump does tell us one thing unambiguously: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. This is the long-established position of the foreign policy establishment of both parties—the foreign policy establishment that so many of Trump’s followers hate.
The question then is, of course, the same one the foreign policy establishment has faced for years: How do you stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon? Can diplomacy do it? Or does one have to be willing to use, or to support the use of, military force? Will Donald Trump end up being a tough-talking version of Barack Obama? Or is he a secret convert to the views of John McCain?
Trump has been trying to have it both ways.
Earlier yesterday, Trump told reporters at the G7 in Canada that Iran would like to talk about a nuclear deal, and that Iran “should talk, and they should talk immediately, before it’s too late.”
As the day progressed, and as Iran’s apparent offer of some flexibility in talks seemed to fall far short of what Israel would even begin to consider, Trump’s hope for a deal seemed to fade. So at 6:30 p.m., Trump repeated his criticism of Iran for not signing a deal earlier. He once again said that “simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.” And he added, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” That final sentence doesn’t sound as if its author expected a deal was imminent. On the way home from Canada, he told reporters that he’s not looking for a “ceasefire” but, rather, a “real end” to the standoff, which he defined as Iran “giving up entirely” on its nukes.
Soon after getting settled in at the White House, Trump had one last thought to share, this time at 1:15 in the morning:
Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!
Hmmm. Trump’s return “has nothing to do with a cease fire”?
Now it could be that Trump has something much bigger in mind than a cease fire: A grand bargain between Israel and Iran. But there’s not much indication such a deal is anywhere close to being in the cards.
So is Trump telling us that we might be getting ready to help Israel finish the job of denuclearization? Could he be getting ready to use U.S. assets to help ensure the complete denuclearization of Iran, and in the process possibly help the Iranian people to get rid of the terrible regime that afflicts them, that has killed many Americans, and that poses a constant threat to peace and stability in the region?
Who knows.
Last night, back in D.C., as rumors swirled that a U.S. action against Iran was underway, the Pentagon spokesman, Sean Parnell, posted this: “American Forces are maintaining their defensive posture and that has not changed. We will protect American troops & our interests.”
In saying that our defensive posture “has not changed,” Parnell implied it could change in the future—perhaps in the near future—if an offensive posture would help protect our interests.
Will War in Iran Help Russia?
by Cathy Young
The fight between Israel and Iran is unfolding some 2,000 miles away from the battlefields of Ukraine—but the two wars are interconnected in many ways, and whether the new conflagration in the Middle East will benefit Ukraine or Russia is a complicated but important question. If the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran were to fall, this would be a massive political and geopolitical blow to Vladimir Putin (especially in the wake of losing a stronghold in Syria). But anything short of this scenario may benefit Russia in several ways.
Tehran is a key Kremlin ally, as well as an important source of imported weapons in Putin’s war: not only Shahed drones but aircraft and close-range ballistic missiles. Losing this resource could be a big problem for Russia, given the insane pace at which it is burning through its hardware. There are already reports that Iran has halted all weapons deliveries to Russia. However, it’s unclear how materially important this will be in Ukraine, given that by now Russia has learned to produce its own drones based on the Iranian Shahed design.
Of course, we should consider that the inverse could also be true: War in Iran may divert still more U.S. resources away from Ukraine. Russian propagandists are already making this case. The official government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta is crowing that “other than Iran itself, Ukraine will probably be the biggest military and political loser in this situation,” both because military aid from the United States is likely to be redirected to Israel and because the damage to Iran’s oil production capabilities will boost Russian oil exports.
One could counter that the Trump administration had repeatedly signaled its lack of commitment to sending military aid to Ukraine already. Indeed, the flow of weapons nearly stopped back in February. More recently, however, there have been hopes that the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine would open the way to new shipments and particularly sales of equipment. These prospects will probably be affected by the conflagration in the Middle East. The Department of Defense has already rerouted to Israel some air defense systems meant for Ukraine.
Another alarming factor to weigh is Putin’s obvious eagerness to capitalize on the new conflict by offering to help resolve it, and Donald Trump’s equally obvious interest in that idea. “I would be open to it,” he told ABC News the day after Putin called to wish him happy birthday, adding that they “had a long talk about it” and Putin was “ready.”
You’d think Putin’s own appetite for wars of aggression would preclude such a role; but in Trump’s Washington, such earth logic no longer applies. Trump has made no secret of the fact that he wants a partnership with Russia; for Putin, of course, such a partnership is the ultimate dream, a way to come back as a major player and regain respect on the world stage. Can this happen? Too early to tell. But the fact that Trump is considering sending his envoy (and Putin fanboy) Steve Witkoff to Tehran for peace talks may be an alarm bell.
AROUND THE BULWARK
How Russia Learned to Love Stalin Again… The Red Czar’s cult of personality is key to Putin’s cult of legitimacy, writes CATHY YOUNG.
Stop Whining and Start Winning Elections… On The Secret Podcast, JVL and SARAH LONGWELL talk about Matt Yglesias’s recent piece on the real stakes for Democrats in the Senate, how to build a winning coalition for 2026, and whether vibes actually beat policy.
Why George Washington Integrated the Army… The original commander-in-chief initially barred black soldiers from joining the ranks, but he came to understand the value—both moral and strategic—of a diverse force, observes ANDREW LAWLER.
Bill Kristol and Terry Moran: True American Spirit… On yesterday’s flagship pod, BILL KRISTOL joins TIM MILLER to discuss the parade’s flop, the No Kings rallies’ success, and the right’s dangerously irresponsible response to the Minnesota assassination. And TERRY MORAN reflects on his firing from ABC, his candid criticism of Stephen Miller, and why Trump is more mean than tough.
Quick Hits
DOVES IN DISARRAY: Now that Donald Trump has decreed that “America First” means supporting war against Iran, nobody is more horrified than the GOP’s isolationist wing, many of whom first fell in love with Trump thanks to his broadsides against the Iraq War in particular and neoconservatism in general.
Tucker Carlson has been on a tear lately, warning of “warmongers” in the party who were calling for “direct US military involvement in a war with Iran.” After Israel struck Iran last week, Carlson wrote in his newsletter that Trump was “complicit in the act of war” and said that what came next “will define Donald Trump’s presidency.” Trump lashed back, telling reporters yesterday that Tucker should “go get a television network and say it so that people listen.” He then followed up on Truth Social:
ABOUT-FACE ON THE ABOUT-FACE: Well, it was fun while it lasted. Days after Donald Trump suggested he would change federal immigration policy to deprioritize raids on farmworkers and hotel and restaurant employees, DHS officials told staff Monday to go ahead and disregard all that. WaPo reports:
Officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including its Homeland Security Investigations division, told agency leaders in a call Monday that agents must continue conducting immigration raids at agricultural businesses, hotels and restaurants . . .
An official from DHS had sent an email Thursday telling agents to “hold on all worksite enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels.” That message went out hours after Trump suggested he was sympathetic to concerns raised by farmers and hospitality executives about his deportation plan.
As Andrew noted last week, the immigration-enforcement truce—a direct repudiation of the aims of Trump immigration guru Stephen Miller—was always likelier to end up being a quick and wacky policy detour than a permanent shift. Still, it’s remarkable to see this sort of direct reversal of Trump’s very public announcement, especially given Trump hasn’t posted on the subject again himself. Sure, he’s plenty busy with all that business in the Middle East. Maybe, with the president’s attention elsewhere, Miller’s doing a little moonlighting.
MAKING IT UP AS THEY GO ALONG: The New York Times just dropped a deep investigative piece into the workings of the Trump-rewired Social Security Administration, and it is a doozy. Come for anecdotes of the White House commanding the SSA to stop trying to correct misinformation being spread to an audience of millions by Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Stay for a jawdropping assessment of the state of play at the agency today:
Throughout the early months of this Trump presidency, Mr. Musk and his allies systematically built a false narrative of widespread fraud at the Social Security Administration based on misinterpreted data, using their claims to justify an aggressive effort to gain access to personal information on millions of Americans, a New York Times investigation has found.
Their work has led to the departures of thousands of employees, thinning an already overstretched work force and setting off a wave of public anxiety over the state of an agency administering politically sacrosanct retirement benefits that Mr. Trump has vowed to protect.
There’s a chestnut a minute in here. You may have heard that DOGE ordered its stooge SSA administrator, Leland Dudek, to cancel contracts in Maine because the state’s governor was beefing with Trump. But did you know that its slapdash firings forced the agency to push remaining lawyers and HR staff into customer-service roles just to keep the system creaking along? Or that Dudek had tasked longtime SSA employees with looking into supposed instances of fraud uncovered by DOGE—and that, when those employees explained that DOGE was mistaken and the payments in question were valid, DOGE used it as an excuse to insist those employees were untrustworthy?
Well, you do now. Trust us: Read the whole thing.
Cheap Shots
As ever, sic.
When trying to predict what Trump is going to do, the only question that matters is, "What benefits Donald Trump at any given moment?"
I personally believe that if there was a chance he could build a Trump hotel in downtown Tehran, Trump would throw the region under the bus. In practice, "America First" is really "Trump First".
Could we stop calling Trump's policy "America First," please. First off, it is not a policy...it is whatever he does at any given moment, as you correctly point out. However, with the ongoing piecemeal destruction of our country, the real policy should be called "America Last" or perhaps "Americans Last."